Economic outlook cloudy in FY20: RBI annual report

Agencies
August 30, 2019

Mumbai, Aug 30: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Thursday that the overall economic outlook of the country appeared clouded for 2019-20 and advised to prioritise the revival of consumption and private investment and structural reforms.

"Overall, the outlook appears clouded as the Indian economy begins its course through 2019-20," the RBI said in its annual report released on Thursday.

The central bank also expressed concern over falling rural demand amidst some surge in indices.

"Rural demand, however, was affected by moderation in agricultural growth as reflected in tractors and two-wheelers sales. Indicators of urban demand revealed a mixed picture in contrast. Air passenger traffic recorded its lowest growth in the last five years.

"Passenger vehicles sales were the lowest in five years on account of increase in insurance costs, volatile fuel prices and lack of financing options due to the liquidity stress in the non-banking sector. The production of consumer non-durables slumped to its lowest level in the past three years," the report highlighted.

The central bank in its review said that external demand operated as a drag for the second successive year while deficit south-west monsoon and depleted reservoirs dented the performance of the agriculture sector.

The rate of gross domestic savings had increased marginally to 30.1 per cent of gross national disposable income (GNDI) in 2017-18 from declines in the previous two years.

The household financial savings -- the most important source of funds -- had increased by 0.3 percentage points of GNDI, though it had remained much lower than 7.3 per cent during 2011-16.

The rate of gross domestic investment in the Indian economy, measured by the ratio of gross capital formation (GCF) to GDP at current prices, had risen to a peak of 39.8 per cent in 2010-11 before a prolonged slowdown set in, taking it down to 30.9 per cent in 2016-17.

A modest recovery was seen in the following year. Although data on gross domestic investment are not yet available for 2018-19, movement in its constituents suggests that the uptick could not be sustained.

Growth in fixed investment collapsed to a 14-quarter low in Q4 of 2018-19 as production of capital goods registered a sharp contraction while imports nosedived in a coincident manner.

However, the industrial sector posted resilient growth, mainly driven by manufacturing in the first half, while the momentum in construction and financial services sustained the healthy growth of the overall services sector, the RBI said.

"Going forward, priority should be accorded to revive consumption and private investment while continuing with structural reforms," the RBI said.

On job creation, the RBI said that official estimates suggest more regularisation of employment in 2017-18 and the various initiatives undertaken by the government are expected to create avenues for employment.

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Sunday, 1 Sep 2019

It could be rainy too.

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News Network
February 5,2020

New Delhi, Feb 5: Taking on Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal after Shaheen Bagh shooter Kapil Baisala was identified as an AAP worker by police, BJP chief J P Nadda on Tuesday said it exposed the party and Kejriwal who were playing with the country's security.

The Aam Aadmi Party hit back, questioning the police investigation.

In a series of tweets, Nadda said people of the country and Delhi today have seen the "dirty face" of AAP.

"For political longing, Kejriwal and his people even sold the security of the country. Earlier, Kejriwal used to insult the Army and advocate terrorists, but today relations with those who carry out their terrorist activities came to light," he said.

Nadda said he wanted to make it clear to Kejriwal that this country is bigger than any election, any government, and "this nation will not forgive those who play with its security. Kejriwal and his entire team have been exposed. The people of Delhi will give a befitting reply".

He claimed the entire country has seen "photos of Imam Hussain, the MLA and former minister of the Delhi government, with a radical terrorist organisation, PFI".

Days before Delhi goes to polls, police claimed that Baisala is a member of the Aam Aadmi Party. They said Baisala joined the party in early 2019 along with his father.

Police said it had photos of Baisala purportedly joining AAP along with his father Gaje Singh last year.

AAP's Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh alleged that photos which were part of investigation were leaked to the BJP. He also said the party will approach the Election Commission to raise this issue, which has cropped up four days before the polling date.

"On whose instance, the police is giving statement? How did the photos which were part of the investigation reach the BJP? Before the news came out, Manoj Tiwari in the morning stated that the accused was from AAP. How did Manoj Tiwari get this news," Singh questioned in a press conference.

Union minister and BJP's in-charge for the Delhi polls, Prakash Javadekar, in a press conference alleged that "their (AAP's) designs are very clear from the beginning and they are trying every trick".

The whole conspiracy of AAP is to "divide society, cause fear in a community and create a vote bank," he charged.

Javadekar also claimed that photos of Baisala were recovered by police from his mobile phone although they were erased.

He also claimed that Baisala and his father were welcomed by Sanjay Singh at their joining of AAP.

"This proves AAP misleads youth and pushes them on the wrong path. AAP's strategy is to divide two communities, they want to instigate riots in Delhi," Javadekar alleged.

He further alleged that AAP leader Sanjay Singh had said violence would take place in Delhi. Their "conspiracy has been exposed by Delhi Police," he claimed.

"We condemn this politics of AAP," he said.

Javadekar also claimed this was "not an isolated incident" as AAP member Amanatullah Khan made a "very provocative speech" and the party supported Shaheen Bagh and did not give permission for the prosecution of members of the "tukde-tukde gang".

He hinted the BJP could approach the Election Commission against AAP over the issue.

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News Network
March 2,2020

Paris, Mar 2: A global agency says the spreading new virus could make the world economy shrink this quarter, for the first time since the international financial crisis more than a decade ago.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says Monday in a special report on the impact of the virus that the world economy is still expected to grow overall this year and rebound next year.

But it lowered its forecasts for global growth in 2020 by half a percentage point, to 2.4 per cent, and said the figure could go as low as 1.5 per cent if the virus lasts long and spreads widely.

The last time world GDP shrank on a quarter-on-quarter basis was at the end of 2008, during the depths of the financial crisis. On a full-year basis, it last shrank in 2009.

The OECD said China's reduced production is hitting Asia particularly hard but also companies around the world that depend on its goods.

It urged governments to act fast to prevent contagion and restore consumer confidence.

The Paris-based OECD, which advises developed economies on policy, said the impact of this virus is much higher than past outbreaks because "the global economy has become substantially more interconnected, and China plays a far greater role in global output, trade, tourism and commodity markets."

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Agencies
August 4,2020

New Delhi, Aug 4: Over 50 per cent of COVID-19 deaths in India have taken place among people aged 60 years and above and 37 per cent deaths have been reported among patients in the age group of 45 to 60 years, Health Ministry said on Tuesday.

Addressing a press conference, Rajesh Bhushan, Secretary, Health Ministry said that 11 per cent COVID-19 deaths took place in the age group of 26 to 44.

The 18 to 25 age group and those below 18 years reported one per cent deaths each.
"Currently, 5,86,298 active COVID-19 cases are in India and over 12 lakh people have recovered.

50 per cent deaths due to COVID19 have taken place among the age group of 60 years or above and 37 per cent deaths took place in the age group between 45 to 60 years," Bhushan said.

"A total of 11 per cent COVID-19 deaths took place in the age group of 26 to 44. Only 1 per cent in 18 to 25 age group and 1 per cent in below the age of 18 years," he added.

Bhushan said that 68 per cent of COVID-19 deaths have been reported among male patients and 32 per cent among female patients which is broadly in line with the global scenario.

The number of recovered COVID-19 patients in India is increasing daily and is now over double the number of active cases.

Bhushan said that the case fatality rate (CFR) is lowest since the first lockdown.

"More than 2 crore COVID-19 tests have been conducted, including more than 6.6 lakh tests in the last 24 hours. Recovered cases are now double of the active cases. 

The case fatality rate (CFR) is lowest since the first lockdown," he said
"This is the first time after the first lockdown that the fatality rate is at the lowest, at 2.10 per cent. The fatality rate has seen a progressive decline and it is continuing, which is a good sign," he added.

According to the World Health Organisation, CFR is a measure of the severity of a disease and is defined as the proportion of reported cases of a specified disease or condition which are fatal within a specified time.

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