Even after 2 years, Modi govt has failed to put in place a simple GST system: CAG

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, Jun 11: The death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 8,102 and the number of cases climbed to 2,86,579 in the country after it registered the highest single-day spike of 357 fatalities and 9,996 cases till Thursday 8 AM, according to the Union Health Ministry data.

The number of recoveries remained more than the active novel coronavirus cases for the second consecutive day.

The number of active cases stands at 1,37,448 while 1,41,028 people have recovered and one patient has migrated to another country, as per the data.   

"Thus, around 49.21 per cent patients have recovered so far," an official said.

The total number of confirmed cases include foreigners.

Of the 357 new deaths reported till Thursday morning, 149 were in Maharashtra, 79 in Delhi, 34 in Gujarat, 20 in Uttar Pradesh, 19 in Tamil Nadu, 17 in West Bengal, eight in Telangana, seven each in Madhya Pradesh and Haryana, four in Rajasthan, three each in Jammu and Kashmir and Karnataka, two each in Kerala and Uttarakhand, one each in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Himachal Pradesh.

Out of the total 8,102 fatalities, Maharashtra tops the tally with 3,438 deaths followed by Gujarat with 1,347 deaths, Delhi with 984, Madhya Pradesh with 427, West Bengal with 432, Tamil Nadu with 326, Uttar Pradesh with 321, Rajasthan with 259 and Telangana with 156 deaths.

The death toll reached 78 in Andhra Pradesh, 69 in Karnataka and 55 in Punjab. Jammu and Kashmir has reported 51 fatalities due to the coronavirus disease, while 52 deaths have been reported from Haryana, 33 from Bihar, 18 from Kerala, 15 from Uttarakhand, nine from Odisha and eight from Jharkhand.

Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh have registered six COVID-19 fatalities each, Chandigarh has five while Assam has recorded four deaths so far. Meghalaya, Tripura and Ladakh have reported one COVID-19 fatality each, according to the ministry's data.

More than 70 per cent of the deaths are due to comorbidities, the ministry's website stated.