Goldman Sachs sees worst India recession with 45% second quarter slump

News Network
May 18, 2020

May 18: Goldman Sachs expects India will experience its deepest recession ever after a poor run of data underscored the damaging economic impact of lockdowns in the world’s second-most populous nation.

Gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with Goldman’s previous forecast of a 20% slump. A stronger rebound of 20% is now seen for the third quarter, while projections for the fourth quarter and first of next year are unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.

Those estimates imply that real GDP will fall by 5% in the 2021 fiscal year, which would be deeper than any other recession India has ever experienced, Goldman economists Prachi Mishra and Andrew Tilton wrote in a note dated May 17.

India’s government has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 31, while further easing restrictions in certain sectors to boost economic activity, as coronavirus cases escalate across the country. The announcement followed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s fifth briefing in as many days, in which she outlined details of the country’s $265 billion virus rescue package, which is equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP.

 “There have been a series of structural reform announcements across several sectors over the past few days,” the Goldman economists wrote. “These reforms are more medium-term in nature, and we, therefore, do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth. We will continue to monitor their implementation to gauge their effect on the medium-term outlook.”

Infections are surging across the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, with more than 91,300 infections, including 2,897 deaths as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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News Network
June 13,2020

Dehradun, Jun 13: Chief of Army Staff General M M Naravane on Saturday said the country is passing through difficult times and its safety and honour depend on the ability of its young officers as military leaders.

Addressing gentlemen cadets at the Indian Military Academy here as the reviewing officer of a passing out parade, Gen Naravane said they are being commissioned as officers into the army under the most daunting of circumstances and the high standards of their military training will help them overcome the challenges lying in store for them.

The parade saw a total of 423 cadets being commissioned into the army including 333 from the country and 90 from friendly foreign countries.

"These are difficult times for the country. Its safety, honour and respect depend on your abilities as military leaders. You have to live up to the expectations of your countrymen. You have to ensure that whatever you do is for their welfare," he said.

The army chief said there are no good or bad regiments but only good officers.

"Become one with your men. Win their trust and affection and they will win battles for you," Naravane said.          

He asked the gentlemen cadets to throw themselves into their new role as commissioned officers with passion but also be compassionate towards their men.

"When the going gets tough and all seems lost, it is the spirit of your men that helps you win," he said.          

He said the gentlemen cadets who are taking their first step as commissioned officers will have to make decisions in the tactical and operational domain as well as resolve ethical issues and they will have only their conscience to guide them.          

"In such critical moments let the core values enshrined in the preamble of the constitution of India be your guiding light," the Army Chief said.

Asking them to rise above petty considerations of caste, creed and religion, he said the army does not discriminate.

Apart from containing the external threats, you may also have to defang internal forces out to destabilise the country.

He said the precise drill movements of the cadets had convinced him they will do their respective countries proud.

"In the autumn of your careers what will matter is not the position you finally attain but how honourably you have served your nation," he said.              

In a message to the gentlemen cadets' parents, who were not allowed to attend the event due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Army Chief said, "Till yesterday they (gentlemen cadets) were your children but from tomorrow they will be ours."

He promised to be with them through thick and thin.

The parade looked slightly off-colour this time with the enthusiastic crowds of parents and some usual features missing like the showering of the drill square with flower petals by helicopters.

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News Network
March 15,2020

Bhopal, Mar 15: Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath on Saturday sought the intervention of Home Minister Amit Shah for the "release" of 22 Congress MLAs in Karnataka, saying they had been held "captive" and were under "pressure".

In a letter to Shah, Chief Minister Nath said the BJP's demand for floor test had "no meaning" till the MLAs do not reach the state.

He said that the MLAs do not have any means of personal communication and all efforts to reach them have failed.

In the four-page letter, Nath said Governor Lalji Tandon had told him that the responsibility of security of those who will come to meet the Speaker should be with the CRPF but as the Chief Minister, it is his duty to ensure the security of all residents of the state including MLAs.

"I assure you that if these 22 MLAs are released by the Karnataka Police, then I will ensure maximum security by the state government so that they are able to convey their views without fear and take part in the proceedings of the assembly," Nath said.

He urged Shah to use his powers as Home Minister so that 22 MLAs safely reach Madhya Pradesh and discharge their responsibilities "without fear or greed" in the assembly session beginning on March 16."

Chief Minister Nath said that he had been informed that the MLAs had been deprived of all personal communication facilities.

He said that a father was not allowed to meet his son and two ministers who were accompanying the father of the legislator were "arrested" and manhandled by the Karnataka Police.

"My efforts to reach them as also of their relatives have failed which proves my apprehension that they are under captivity."

He said the videos released in the name of MLAs to "mislead" the people of the state were similar. "This proves that all these MLAs are under pressure and they are being forced to act in a particular way," he said.

Nath said that he was drawing Shah's attention to the developments in the state since March 3 which were aimed at destabalising the government.

He said three Congress MLAs, one BSP, and one independent MLA were taken to Gurugram and two ministers of his government were able to "rescue" the BSP legislator.

He said the three Congress MLAs and the independent MLA were later taken to Bengaluru by the BJP. He said a BJP MLA and a party functionary accompanied them.

"Later, 19 Congress MLAs were taken to Bengaluru in chartered planes and the arrangement was done by the BJP," he said, adding that they were accompanied by two former BJP MLAs and a former minister.

Kamal Nath said the number of MLAs in Bengaluru grew to 22 and they are all in the protection of the Karnataka Police.

He said some BJP leaders from Madhya Pradesh can be seen in pictures of the place where the MLAs were staying. "All reported expenses on these MLAs are being borne by the BJP," he said.

He said the BJP leaders had told the media about the resignation of MLAs and they had not presented themselves before the assembly Speaker.

Kamal Nath said he was concerned about the security of the MLAs and had written to the Governor earlier.

"You would agree with me that the demand for floor test has no meaning till the 22 MLAs are in captivity. This is unprecedented that the BJP is demanding floor test and several Congress MLAs have been kept outside the state,' he said.

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Agencies
January 24,2020

New Delhi, Jan 24: The government's plan to sell national carrier Air India may face political and legal headwinds with senior BJP leader Subramanian Swamy raising the red flag against the decision.

Days before the launch of bidding process by inviting Expressions of Interest (EoI) from potential suitors, Swamy has warned against such move, saying the issue was currently being discussed by a Parliamentary panel.

"Right now, it (Air India disinvestment) is before the consultative committee and I am a member of that. I have been asked to give a note which will be discussed in the next meeting. They can't go ahead without that," Swamy told media.

"If they do, I will go to court. They know that too," he cautioned.

A vocal opponent of Air India privatisation, Swamy had earlier suggested to list 49 per cent of Air India shares on stock exchanges while government holds 51 per cent in the carrier, as an alternative to selling its entire stake to private companies.

It has been reliably learnt that the Rajya Sabha member had expressed reservations over privatisation of Air India at the meeting of a Parliamentary consultative committee earlier this month.

After its failed first attempt, the Modi government has shown great zeal this time to sell Air India. It is set to offer a sweetened deal to potential buyers this time around by removing a large chunk of the debt and liabilities from the airline’s books.

Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri had earlier said that Air India will be shut down, in case the disinvestment exercise is not successful.

Sources told media that the preliminary information memorandum (PIM) inviting EoI has been tentatively scheduled to be unveiled on January 27.

Air India is proposed to be sold along with its subsidiary Air India Express and ground-handling joint venture company Air India Singapore Airport Terminal Services Ltd (AISATS) in which it has 50 per cent stake.

Air India on January 10 came out with a tender for engaging aircraft asset management companies for carrying out technical audit of its entire fleet.

A Ministerial panel on Air India chaired by Home Minister Amit Shah on January 7 approved the draft EoI and a share purchase agreement (SPA) for the airline's disinvestment.

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