Govt rebuts ex-CEA’s contention on GDP; claims right methodology followed

Agencies
June 12, 2019

New Delhi, Jun 12: The government on Tuesday rebutted former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian's contention regarding over-estimation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and stated that proper methodology was followed in calculating the country's overall economic growth estimates.

"The GDP estimates released by the ministry are based on accepted procedures, methodologies and available data and objectively measure the contribution of various sectors in the economy," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in its rebuttal.

The rebuttal comes after Subramanian questioned the change in GDP calculation methods and numbers effected last year.

In his recent research paper published by Harvard University, the former CEA has said there is a possibility of substantial overestimation in the growth figures while stating that the actual GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was around 4.5 per cent as against 7 per cent.

Subramanian has suggested that India's GDP growth estimate has been overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17, a period that covers the years during both the UPA and the NDA governments.

The adoption of a new GDP series to measure the country's economic growth, months after the government itself slashed previous UPA-era GDP growth rate for 2010-11 from the earlier estimated 10.3 per cent to 8.5 per cent, has fuelled controversy.

However, the ministry said: "Estimation of GDP in any economy is a complex exercise where several measures and metrics are evolved to better measure the performance of the economy".

According to the ministry, the purpose of global standardisation and comparability, countries follow the System of National Accounts (SNA) evolved in the UN after elaborate consultation.

"In India, the Base Year of the GDP series was revised from 2004-05 to 2011-12 and released on 30 January, 2015 after adaptation of the sources and methods in line with the SNA 2008," the ministry said in its rebuttal.

Besides, the ministry pointed out that the methodology of compilation of macro aggregates has been discussed in detail by the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS) comprising experts from academia and institutions like the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

"It may be noted that decisions taken by these Committees are unanimous and collective after taking into consideration the data availability and methodological aspects before recommending the most appropriate approach," the ministry said.

As per the statement, structural changes in the economy have necessiated the revision of the base year of macroeconomic data points such as "GDP, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) etc" on a periodical basis to ensure that indicators remain relevant.

"Such revisions not only use latest data from censuses and surveys, they also incorporate information from administrative data that have become more robust over time."

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News Network
May 23,2020

New Delhi, May 23: India witnessed the biggest ever spike of 6,654 positive cases in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of COVID-19 cases to 1,25,101, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

As many as 137 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours, taking the death toll to 3,720.
Out of the total number of cases, 69,597 are active and 51,784 have been cured/discharged or have migrated.

Maharashtra continues to remain the worst-affected state with 44,582 COVID-19 cases. It is followed by Tamil Nadu (14,753), Gujarat (13,268), and Delhi (12,319).

The nationwide lockdown imposed as a precautionary measure to contain the spread of COVID-19 has been extended till May 31.

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News Network
July 11,2020

Geneva, Jul 11: The World Health Organization said Friday that it is still possible to bring coronavirus outbreaks under control, even though case numbers have more than doubled in the past six weeks.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the examples of Italy, Spain, South Korea and India's biggest slum showed that however bad a outbreak was, the virus could still be reined in through aggressive action.

"In the last six weeks cases have more than doubled," Tedros told a virtual press conference in Geneva.

However, "there are many examples from around the world that have shown that even if the outbreak is very intense, it can still be brought back under control," said Tedros.

"And some of these examples are Italy, Spain and South Korea, and even in Dharavi -- a densely packed area in the megacity of Mumbai -- a strong focus on community engagement and the basics of testing, tracing, isolating and treating all those that are sick is key to breaking the chains of transmission and suppressing the virus."

The novel coronavirus has killed at least 555,000 people worldwide since the outbreak emerged in China last December, according to a tally from official sources compiled by AFP on Friday.

Nearly 12.3 million cases have been registered in 196 countries and territories.

"Across all walks of life, we are all being tested to the limit," Tedros said, "from countries where there is exponential growth, to places that are loosening restrictions and now starting to see cases rise.

"Only aggressive action combined with national unity and global solidarity can turn this pandemic around."

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Agencies
May 14,2020

Wayanad, May 14: Coronavirus scare has gripped the police in the district as around 70 personnel, including their chief, have gone on quarantine as a precautionary measure after three colleagues tested positive for the pathogen.

A day after three personnel of Mananthavady police station tested positive for COVID-19, District Superintendent of Police R Illango said on Thursday he and others decided to quarantine themselves as they had been in contact with some other colleagues from the station. Twenty four personnel, including a Deputy Superintendent of Police, have gone on quarantine after giving their samples for testing three days ago as a measure of abundant caution after a man questioned in Manathavady police station in connection with a case tested positive for the virus on May 9.

Of the 24, results of 18 have been received so far and three personnel tested positive on Wednesday, following which the station has been disinfected and virtually closed and contact tracing underway.

On Wednesday, the SP and some other police personnel had interacted with the DySp for close to an hour at a checkpost following which over 40 police personnel have voluntarily decided to go on quarantine.

"We are actually being over cautious. I have spoken to all the policemen. We know we are in the high-risk job. We are concerned that we might spread it to family members, public, or colleagues. So we want to maintain extreme caution", Illango, who is on home quarantine, told PTI.

With the three personnel testing positive in the state, Kerala Director General of Police Loknath Behera said the force should take all necessary precautions and fearlessly go ahead in the fight against the virus.

The three from Manathavady are believed to have contracted the virus after they came in contact with a man who was called to the station in connection with a case on April 28 and May 2. He later tested positive for COVID-19 on May 9. This man is suspected to be a contact of a truck driver, who has turned out to be a super spreader after returning to the district from Chennai's Koyambedu market, a hotspot, and had infected at least 10 others, including his wife, mother and grandchild.

The Mananthavady police station has been disinfected with the help of the Health Department and Fire Force personnel. Computers and wireless equipment have been shifted to other police buildings and the station's charge has been temporarily given to Vallamunda Station House Officer, a release from the DGP's office said. Two police personnel wearing personal protection equipment (PPE) kits would be at the station to take care of necessary work and a health worker posted to help them, it said.

Police personnel from other stations have been mobilised to meet any shortage, Illangosaid adding they need not come to the police station but directly go to the duty points. Meanwhile, the district health authorities said the standard operating procedure (SOP) has been initiated as soon as the test results of the three came by Wednesday noon. Accordingly, all personnel who were on duty were sent to nearby lodges and resorts for quarantine.

One of the policemen who tested positive had been to Sulthan Bathery police station and Muthanga area, where the DySP and few other officials were also present. This is being seen as a lapse on the part of the police department. However, police sources said none had directed the 24 personnel, whose samples were collected on Monday, to go on quarantine or abstain from duty. The health department is trying to map out the contact list of the police personnel to contain further spread from their direct and secondary contacts.

According to police sources, the Sulthan Bathery Circle Inspector, two sub-inspectors and about 18 police personnel of the Mananthavady police station are among those who have been put on quarantine. As part of containment measures, the courts in Sulthan Bathery and Mananthavady have been closed on Thursday, officials said. 

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