IMF calls for 'urgent' action by India amid slowdown

New Delhi, Jul 24: India reported the highest single-day spike of 49,310 coronavirus cases on Friday, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The total COVID-19 positive cases stand at 12,87,945 including 4,40,135 active cases, 8,17,209 cured/discharged/migrated.
With 740 deaths in the last 24 hours, the cumulative toll reached 30,601.

Maharashtra has reported 3,47,502 coronavirus cases, the highest among states and Union Territories in the country. A total of 1,92,964 cases have been reported from Tamil Nadu till now, while Delhi has recorded 1,27,364 coronavirus cases.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), 3,52,801 samples were tested for coronavirus on Thursday and overall 1,54,28,170 samples have been tested so far. 

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

Moscow, Jul 13: Russia has become the first nation to complete clinical trials of a COVID-19 vaccine on humans. Chief researcher Elena Smolyarchuk, who heads the Center for Clinical Research on Medications at Sechenov University, told Russian news agency TASS on Sunday that the human trials for the vaccine have been completed at the university and the volunteers will be discharged soon.

"The research has been completed and it proved that the vaccine is safe. The volunteers will be discharged on July 15 and July 20," Smolyarchuk was quoted as saying in the report.

Though the results have been favourable with respect to the medication’s effectiveness, no further information was provided on when this vaccine would enter commercial production stage.

Russia had allowed clinical trials of two forms of a potential COVID-19 vaccine developed by the Gamaleya National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology on June 18.

The first vaccine, in the form of a solution for intramuscular administration, was carried out at the Burdenko Military Hospital.

Another vaccine, in the form of a powder for the preparation of a solution for intramuscular administration, was carried out at Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University.

The first stage of research on the vaccine at Sechenov University involved a group of 18 volunteers and the second group involved 20 volunteers.

After vaccination, all volunteers were expected to remain in isolation in a hospital for 28 days.

Earlier, results of the COVID-19 vaccine tests performed on a group of volunteers in Russia showed that they were developing immunity to the coronavirus.

"The data obtained by the Gamalei National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, proves that volunteers of the first and second groups are forming an immune response after injections of the vaccine against the coronavirus," according to an earlier statement from the Russian Defense Ministry.

Russia has reported 719,449 cases and 11,188 deaths to date.

There are at least 21 vaccines currently under key trials, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The overall number of global COVID-19 cases crossed 12.9 million, while the deaths have increased to more than 5,69,000, according to Johns Hopkins University in the US.

As of Monday morning, the total number of cases stood at 1,29,10,357, while the fatalities rose to 5,69,128.

The US accounted for the world's highest number of infections at over 33 lakh. Brazil came in the second place with over 18 lakh infections. India is third worst affected with over 8.7 lakh people reported to have COVID-19.