IMF Committee warns against complacency, says global economic recovery incomplete

Agencies
October 15, 2017

Washington, Oct 15: Despite the global upswing in economic activity, the IMF's steering committee has warned policymakers to guard against complacency, citing medium-term economic risks and rising geopolitical tensions.

The International Monetary and Finance Committee (IMFC), in a communique issued, said there has been a notable pickup in investment, trade, and industrial production.

"But, the (global economic) recovery is not yet complete, with inflation below target in most advanced economies, and potential growth remains weak in many countries," the communique said.

"Near-term risks are broadly balanced, but there is no room for complacency because medium-term economic risks are tilted to the downside and geopolitical tensions are rising," it further said, adding that the upturn in global activity provided a window of opportunity to tackle key policy challenges and stave off downside risks.

The committee advised the policymakers to go for "accommodative" monetary policies and fiscal policies that are "flexible and growth-friendly."

"Monetary policy should remain accommodative, where inflation is still below target and output gaps are negative, consistent with central banks’ mandates, mindful of financial stability risks, and underpinned by credible policy frameworks," it said.

"Structural reforms, well-sequenced and adapted to individual country circumstances, should aim to lift productivity, growth, and employment; promote competition and market entry, and enhance resilience," it further said.

The committee also warned against excessive volatility in exchange rates, saying it may adversely impact economic stability.

"Flexible exchange rates, where feasible, can serve as a shock absorber, but, excessive volatility or disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability," the IMF communique said

In their communique, the IMF member nations said they were committed against competitive currency devaluations.

"The IMF member countries pledged to work together to achieve a level playing field in international taxation; address tax and competition challenges raised by the digitalisation of the economy; and tackle the sources and channels of terrorism financing, corruption, and other illicit finance," the communique said.

The countries also pledged to work towards reducing excessive global imbalances in a way that supports global growth by pursuing appropriate and sustainable policies.

"The IMF members countries reinforced their commitment to achieve strong, sustainable, balanced, inclusive, and job-rich growth, and said to this end, they will use all policy tools— monetary and fiscal policies and structural reforms—both individually and collectively," the communique said.

"We will support countries dealing with the macroeconomic consequences of pandemics, cyber risks, climate change and natural disasters, energy scarcity, conflicts, migration, and refugee and other humanitarian crises," it said.

The meeting was chaired by the Governor of Bank of Mexico, Agustín Carstens. It was attended by IMF chief Christine Lagarde and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, along with other dignitaries from across the globe.

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News Network
January 24,2020

Davos, Jan 24: Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan claimed that he met with a “brick wall” when he approached Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a peace proposal, soon after assuming office.

In an interview to Foreign Policy magazine on the sidelines of WEF 2020 here, Khan also said he told Modi that Pakistan will act firmly if it was given evidence of any involvement in the Pulwama terror attack, but India instead “bombed” Pakistan.

Tensions have escalated between the two countries, following India withdrawing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019. Even since, Khan has been trying to seek global intervention to de-escalate the tensions between the two countries.

On Thursday, India's External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar categorically ruled out any third party role on the Kashmir issue, asserting that any issue between the two countries should be resolved bilaterally.

In the interview, Khan said that he is a firm believer that military means are not a solution to ending conflicts. “After assuming office, I immediately reached out to Prime Minister Modi. I was amazed by the reaction I got, which was quite weird.

The subcontinent hosts the greatest number of poor people in the world, and the best way to fight poverty is to have a trading relationship between the two countries rather than spending money on arms. This is what I said to the Indian Prime Minister. But I was met by brick wall,” Khan said.

Khan took charge as Prime Minister in August 2018. Referring to the suicide attack in Pulwama, Khan said he immediately told Modi ,“if you can give us any actionable intelligence (that Pakistanis were involved), we will act on it. But rather than do so, they bombed us.”

Noting that the both countries are not close to conflict right now, Khan said that it is important that the UN and the US act.

When asked about US President Donald Trump’s close relationship with Modi, Khan said the relationship is understandable because India is a huge market. “My concern is not about the US-India relationship. My concern is the direction in which India is going,” Khan said.

Khan also sought to compare the events in India to what happened in Nazi Germany.

“Between 1930 and 1934, Germany went from a liberal democracy to a fascist, totalitarian, racist state. If you look at what is happening in India under the BJP in the last five years, look where it's heading, you'll see the danger. And you're talking about a huge country of 1.3 billion people that is nuclear-armed,” he said.

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News Network
February 14,2020

New Delhi/Washington, Feb 14: India has offered to partially open up its poultry and dairy markets in a bid for a limited trade deal during US President Donald Trump's first official visit to the country this month, people familiar with the protracted talks say.

India, the world's largest milk-producing nation, has traditionally restricted dairy imports to protect the livelihoods of 80 million rural households involved in the industry.

But Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying to pull all the stops for the US President's February 24-25 visit, aimed at rebuilding bonds between the world's largest democracies.

In 2019, President Trump suspended India's special trade designation that dated back to 1970s, after PM Modi put price caps on medical devices, such as cardiac stents and knee implants, and introduced new data localization requirements and e-commerce restrictions.

President Trump's trip to India has raised hopes that he would restore some of the country's US trade preferences, in exchange for tariff reductions and other concessions.

The United States is India's second-largest trade partner after China, and bilateral goods and services trade climbed to a record $142.6 billion in 2018. The United States had a $23.2 billion goods trade deficit in 2019 with India, its 9th largest trading partner in goods.

India has offered to allow imports of US chicken legs, turkey and produce such as blueberries and cherries, government sources said, and has offered to cut tariffs on chicken legs from 100 per cent to 25 per cent. US negotiators want that tariff cut to 10 per cent. The Modi government is also offering to allow some access to India's dairy market, but with a 5 per cent tariff and quotas, the sources said. But dairy imports would need a certificate they are not derived from animals that have consumed feeds that include internal organs, blood meal or tissues of ruminants.

New Delhi has also offered to lower its 50 per cent tariffs on very large motorcycles made by Harley-Davidson, a tax that was a particular irritant for President Trump, who has labelled India the "tariff king." The change would be largely symbolic because few such motorcycles are sold in India.

President Trump will be feted in PM Modi's home state of Gujarat, then hold talks in New Delhi and attend a reception that the hosts have promised will be bigger than the one organised for former president Barack Obama in 2015.

But it is far from clear whether India's offers will be enough to satisfy US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who cancelled plans for a trip to India this week. Instead, he has held telephone talks with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.

The US dairy industry remained sceptical on Thursday that a viable deal is at hand.

"We're always looking for market access, but in terms of India, as of today I'm not aware of any real progress going on," said Michael Dykes, president of the International Dairy Foods Association and a member of USTR's agricultural trade policy advisory committee.

Mr Dykes said the US dairy industry was looking for access in viable commercial quantities.

A USTR spokesman and India's trade ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

A parliament panel is reviewing a draft data privacy law that imposes stringent controls over cross-border data flows and gives the government powers to seek user data from companies.

It is not clear whether it will be passed, or in what form, but the possibilities have unnerved US companies and could raise compliance requirements for Google, Amazon.com Inc, and Facebook.

The draft law is not part of the trade discussions, Indian officials say, because the issue is too difficult to resolve at the same time.

"The privacy and localization piece will be raised independently and in concert with the trade discussions," said a Washington-based source with knowledge of the US administration's thinking.

President Trump on Tuesday was non-committal about sealing a trade deal before his visit. "If we can make the right deal, we'll do it," he told reporters.

Two US sources said progress had been made on proposed alterations to the medical device price caps. India's new import tariffs on medical devices, walnuts, toys, electronics and other products on February 1 surprised US negotiators, however.

The new tariffs were aimed at China, which also makes medical devices, according to an Indian government source. "We have to protect our market and our companies," the source said.

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News Network
January 1,2020

New Delhi, Jan 1: The new Army chief Lieutenant General MM Naravane on Wednesday said that India needs to pay more attention to its border along China and asserted that the force is capable of dealing with any security challenge.

"We have been giving attention to our western front in the past. The northern front now also requires an equal amount of attention... The Army is capable of tackling any dangers to the country," General Naravane told reporters after receiving the first Guard of Honour as the Army chief.

"In that context, we are now going in for capability development and enhancement of our capacities even in our northern borders which includes the northeastern part of our country," he said.

On the border dispute with China, the Army chief said that continuing peace along the border will pave the way for a solution.

He said: "We have been able to maintain peace and tranquility along borders and I'm sure that situation will prevail. By maintaining this, we will be able to set the stage for the eventual solution."

General Naravane said that operational readiness and modernisation will be among the top priorities of the Army under his leadership.

"Our priority will be to be ready to meet any challenge and to be operationally prepared at all times. This will happen as a result of modernisation. We will continue to build our capability especially in the North and Northeast region of our country," he said.

He said that the Indian Army will pay special attention to respect human rights. "We will also pay special emphasis on raising security awareness among ranks and file and pay special attention to respect human rights," the Army chief said.

Assuring the country on security, he said, "All three services — the Army, the Navy and the Air Force — are ready to defend the country."

He extended wishes to people in the new year and hoped that the country will make huge progress in this decade.

General Naravane took over as the 28th Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) on Tuesday, succeeding General Bipin Rawat who has become India's first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS).

General Naravane was previously the Vice Chief of Army Staff.

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