IMF: Gulf economy recovering but faces oil volatility

Agencies
November 13, 2018

Dubai, Nov 13: Economic growth in the energy-rich Gulf will recover in 2018 from a contraction last year but remains vulnerable to volatility in crude oil prices, the IMF forecast on Tuesday.

The global lender predicted that an overall energy price recovery from 2015-2016 lows would spur the economies of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council to grow by 2.4 percent in 2018 and 3.0 percent in 2019, after a contraction of 0.4 percent last year.

Grouping Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the GCC states together pump over 17 million barrels per day and depend heavily on crude revenues.

But “the growth outlook for oil exporters remains subject to significant uncertainty about the future path of oil prices,” the IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

After their earlier extended recovery, oil prices have shed a fifth of their value in just one month, with Brent crude trading near its lowest price since April.

Growth in non-GCC oil exporters in MENA, which includes Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Libya, is projected to slow to 0.3 percent in 2018, from three percent the previous year, and pick up modestly to 0.9 percent in 2019, the IMF said.

“This largely reflects the expected impact of the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran, which is likely to reduce Iranian oil production and exports significantly over the next two years at least,” the IMF said.

It projected Iran’s economy to shrink by 1.6 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2019.

For oil-importing countries in MENA, growth is expected to continue at a modest pace of 4.5 percent in 2018, before dropping back to four percent next year, the IMF said.

This level of growth is not sufficient to create the required jobs for a region marred by instability and civil strife, it said.

Oil revenues for MENA exporters have increased by about $260 billion over the period 2016 to 2018.

This has mostly been due to a price rise generated by production cuts in nations belonging to OPEC, as well as non-OPEC producers.

The current account balance will turn from a deficit into a surplus and overall budget shortfalls will decline, the lender said.

The IMF urged GCC states to continue with and expand reforms, welcoming the imposition of value-added tax by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

It also called on GCC countries to impose corporate and personal income tax in order to diversify their revenue streams.

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Agencies
January 4,2020

Dubai, Jan 4: Three UAE airlines have made it to lists of the safest carriers in 2020, reinforcing the value these companies provide passengers in the increasingly competitive aviation scene.

Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways and Dubai's Emirates are in the list of the top 20 safest airlines, while Sharjah-based Air Arabia is in the list of the top 10 low-cost carriers, safety and product rating website AirlineRatings.com reported on Thursday.

It named Qantas as the safest airline for 2020 out of the 405 carriers it monitors.

The top 20, in order, are Qantas, Air New Zealand, EVA Air, Etihad Airways, Singapore Airlines, Emirates, Alaska Airlines, Qatar Airways, Cathay Pacific Airways, Virgin Australia, Hawaiian Airlines, Virgin Atlantic Airlines, TAP Portugal, SAS, Royal Jordanian, Swiss, Finnair, Lufthansa, Aer Lingus and KLM.

"These airlines are clear standouts in the airline industry and are at the forefront of safety," said AirlineRatings.com editor-in-chief Geoffrey Thomas.

"For instance, Australia's Qantas has been recognised by the British Advertising Standards Association in a test case in 2008 as the world's most experienced airline."

"Qantas has been the lead airline in virtually every major operational safety advancement over the past 60 years and has not had a fatality in the pure-jet era," said Thomas.

AirlineRatings.com editors also identified their top 10 safest low-cost airlines; they are, in alphabetical order, Air Arabia, Flybe, Frontier, HK Express, IndiGo, Jetblue, Volaris, Vueling, Westjet and Wizz.

Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research in London, says that it isn't a surprise that UAE carriers are on those lists.

"UAE airlines almost always feature in the top rankings for safety because they value the equipment that they fly their passengers on each and every day," he told Khaleej Times on Thursday.

"All airlines do; but for the UAE, where airlines have expanded rapidly in the last couple of decades, it's an amazing feat that they rank so highly while inducting so many new aeroplanes."

There's little benefit to adding luxurious cabins if maintenance, security and safety protocols as well as routine engineering schedules are not adhered to, he stressed.

"And with the UAE itself sporting MRO activities as well as through companies like Strata, which supply components to Airbus and Boeing directly, airlines here have harnessed that tech-change to ensure that their fleets have the highest redundancy and safety checks at every possible chance," Ahmad added. "That translates into passenger confidence - and we can see the brand and loyalty strength across Emirates, flydubai, Air Arabia and Etihad; it's no surprise that each year, they all fly more and more passengers across their network."

In making its selections, AirlineRatings.com editors and its industry advisors take into account numerous critical factors that include: Audits from aviation's governing bodies and lead associations, government audits, airline's crash and serious incident record, fleet age, financial position and pilot training and culture.

"All airlines have incidents every day and many are aircraft or engine manufacture issues instead of airline operational problems. And it is the way the flight crew handles incidents that determines a good airline from an unsafe one. So just lumping all incidents together is very misleading," said Thomas.

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News Network
May 6,2020

A massive fire engulfed a residential tower in UAE's Sharjah last night. The building has been identified as one Abbco Tower in Al Nahda.

According to the latest inputs, Sharjah Civil Defence teams rushed to the spot and evacuated all residents. 

Firefighters managed to douse the blaze after several hours. The building in question is reportedly a 48-storey structure. Officials are yet to reveal the cause of the fire.

All residents of the building were evacuated while seven incurred minor injuries during the evacuation and were treated at local hospitals, reported the United Arab Emirates' local media.

More details are awaited as this is a developing story.

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Gulf News
May 29,2020

Dubai: There aren’t that many job vacancies right now – but be prepared for a 15-20 per cent cut in salary expectations even for those positions that are still open. Businesses in the UAE are definitely not in a generous mood when it comes to hiring, with salary cuts now part of the new normal.

And they are definitely not willing to take on new hires without extracting some cost benefit from them. “We have seen major [salary] cuts across the board in hospitality, real estate, professional services and in retail,” said Vijay Gandhi, regional head at Korn Ferry Digital, the recruitment consultancy.

“And once the headcount correction is complete in [the local] financial services and energy sector, we may see more cuts in rewards and benefits in these categories as well.”

The salary cuts are slowly extending their way into the healthcare sector as well – just about every non-COVID-19 facing medical category is coming across cuts in the number of working hours and, by extension, their take home packages.

By end of June, more businesses and sectors in the UAE will have a better understanding of their short-term revenue prospects. By then, they will also have a better reading on what their staff strength should be – and whether there should be more trimming of the workforce. Or whether they should consider a few hires as well.

A long summer
So, realistically, it could be September before such decisions need to be taken. The coming weeks will then prove to be laden with anxiety for those who are expecting to land a job option after being laid off at their current employers.

There are multiple instances of recruitment decisions having been made in February/March, and then the companies rescinding those offers to the chosen candidates citing the business uncertainty.

“The decision to hire is taking longer – so job creation is now 4-6 weeks from interview and selection compared to 4-6 days in the past,” said Gandhi.

The lucky ones
Recently, free zones and other entities had made it easier for personnel on the visa of one entity being able to smoothly transfer to another if they are likely to be made redundant. “We are seeing more flexibility being offered by the authorities given the circumstances, and the visa transfer process is happening,” said Gandhi.

“But in the vast majority of cases, businesses are going to wait and watch before normal hiring activity starts. Organizations will look to hire from September.”

A few hires are still happening
Even in the business turmoil set off by COVID-19, a few categories are still offering jobs. At the entry level, logistics services personnel and drivers with experience remain in demand.

Not just “routine jobs, there have been confirmations in more technical roles such as procurement and operations in healthcare and e-commerce,” said Gandhi. “Employers should keep an eye for good talent and have the talent acquisition team actively looking for good profiles.

“As such, organizations are not only looking at “right sizing” in numbers but also “future proofing” on what kind of skilled talent will help them in the post-COVID-19 world.”

But for the candidates, the present will be about waiting around for the call to come.

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