India inflation likely crept up to 6-month high in April

Agencies
May 11, 2019

Bengaluru, May 11: India inflation likely crept up slightly to a six-month high in April, driven mainly by food prices, a Reuters poll found, although holding below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4 percent for the ninth straight month.

If true, that would support expectations for the central bank to keep policy on hold through to the end of next year after cutting interest rates twice in a row, in February and April, ahead of national elections.

The latest Reuters poll of over 40 economists, conducted May 3-9, showed India retail inflation likely rose to 2.97 percent last month from 2.86 percent in March. The data is due May 13.

Forecasts ranged between 2.68 and 3.56 percent, with almost three-quarters pegging it at or below 3 percent.

“In continuation of the previous month’s trend we see further pickup in food prices and moderation in core,” noted economists at Citi.

“While Brent prices had spiked in April – there was little pass through to pump level prices, probably due to ongoing elections.”

Indeed, while inflation is tame now, economists say that rising oil prices will eventually push inflation up and could pose a challenge for whatever government is formed after India’s national election is completed later this month.

Crude oil prices surged last month, driven by a cutback in supply by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and sanctions imposed on Iran and Venezuela by the United States.

The expected slight rise in April is likely to come in part from the cost of transporting food, according to Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING, although not everyone agrees.

Fuel costs tend to lag the price of crude, and so economists expect upward pressure in future months in any case.

“I think in the second half (of the year) inflation will start picking up...and then we will see the RBI losing (room) to aggressively ease,” said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Mizuho.

“Having said that, the growth cycle is such that the RBI could still squeeze through one more rate cut on the premise of further downside risks to growth.”

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News Network
February 3,2020

Mumbai, Feb 3: Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, whose party severed ties with the BJP after the state elections, on Monday said that if somebody breaks a promise, "pain and anger is obvious".

"No, I did not get any shock," Thackeray said in an interview with Shiv Sena mouthpiece Saamana while talking about forming an alliance with NCP and Congress, and becoming the Maharashtra Chief Minister.

"I am a son of Shiv Sena Pramukh (Balasaheb Thackeray), several people tried to give a shock to me but they didn't succeed. This is a field where you have to accept in the beginning that there will be a bit pushing and pulling," Thackeray said.

He added that accepting the Chief Minister's post was not a shock for him and neither was it his "dream at any point of time".

"But I can say one thing for sure that I had decided to go to any level to fulfil the promise which I made to Balasaheb Thackeray. I want to further clear it that me becoming Chief Minister is not the fulfilling of the promise made to Shiv Sena Pramukh but it's just a step towards that. I will fulfil every promise which I made to my father," Uddhav Thackeray said.

"There are several types of shock. Did people like it or not, it is the important part. I have spoken on this issue (alliance with NCP and Congress) several times and even people have understood this. Making promises and keeping them are two different things. If someone breaks a promise, pain and anger is obvious," he added.

The Chief Minister said that he does not know if BJP "has come out their shock till now or not."

"But I have to say if they had kept their promise what would have happened, what a big deal had I asked for? Did I ask for stars and moon? I only asked for what was decided before Lok Sabha polls, when we decided seat distribution," he said.

He further said, "Maharashtra and the country are watching (who betrayed/shocked whom), I don't need to say much on this."

Soon after the Assembly election results, Shiv Sena demanded rotation of the chief minister's post and equal power-sharing in the state government, which was rejected by then ally BJP. The weeks of political stalemate led to the imposition of President's rule on November 13.

Firm on its demands, Sena, the second-largest party in the state, did not hesitate to cobble up with the ideological opponents -- NCP and Congress -- and was given the chief minister's post.

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News Network
June 2,2020

New Delhi, Jun 2: India on Tuesday reported 8,171 more COVID-19 cases and 204 deaths in the last 24 hours as the country's virus count inches closer to two lakh, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The total number of cases in the country now stands at 1,98,706 including 97,581 active cases, 95,527 cured/discharged/migrated and 5,598 deaths.

Cases in Maharashtra have crossed 70,000 including over 30,000 recovered while Tamil Nadu's COVID-19 tally jumped to 23,495.

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News Network
February 28,2020

Feb 28: The best economic tonic for the coronavirus shock is to contain its spread and worry about stimulus later, said Raghuram Rajan, former head of the Reserve Bank of India.

There’s little central banks can do, and while more government spending would help, the priority should be on convincing companies and households that the virus is under control, he said.

“People want to have a sense that there is a limit to the spread of this virus perhaps because of containment measures or because there is hope that some kind of viral solution can be found,” Rajan told Bloomberg Television’s Haidi Stroud Watts and Shery Ahn.

“At this point I would say the best thing that governments can do is to really fight the epidemic rather than worry about stimulus measures that comes later,” said Rajan, who is currently a professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business.

The spread of coronavirus is pushing the world economy toward its worst performance since the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Bank of America Corp. economists warned clients Thursday that they now expect 2.8% global growth this year, the weakest since 2009.

“We have moved from extreme confidence in markets to extreme panic, all in the space of one week,” said Rajan, who previously was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

The virus outbreak will force companies to rethink supply chains and overseas production facilities, he said.

“I think we will see a lot of rethinking on this, coming on the back of the trade disruption, now we have this,” Rajan said. “Globalization in production is going to be hit quite badly.”

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