India suffers driest June in 5 years, fears for crops and economy

Agencies
July 1, 2019

Mumbai, Jul 1: India had its driest June in five years due to a delay in monsoon rains, the weather department said late on Sunday, raising fears for crops and the broader economy.

Overall, rains were a third below average, although in some states, including the sugar cane growing northern state of Uttar Pradesh, they were as much as 61 per cent down, data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed.

Over half of country's arable land relies on rainfall, while agriculture makes up about 15 per cent of Asia's third-largest economy, which is already suffering a slowdown.

The monsoon usually covers nearly the entire country by July 1, but has covered less than two-thirds so far this year, according to the IMD data.

If the rains don't improve over the next two to three weeks, the country could face a crisis that hammers harvests and rural demand, analysts said. Companies supplying farmers with everything from tractors to consumer goods would be vulnerable.

The country is still recovering from a drought last year that ravaged crops, killed livestock, emptied reservoirs and drained water supplies to city dwellers and some industries.

Rains first arrived in Kerala a week late on June 8, but the developing Cyclone Vayu in the Arabian Sea drew moisture from the monsoon and weakened its progress.

Cotton, soybean and pulses growing western and central parts of India are likely to get good rainfall in the first half of July, but rains could be below average in northern India, said an IMD official, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak with media.

In the second half of July rainfall in north-western India could improve, but rains in central and western India could be subdued, the official said.

Overall, India faces below average rainfall in July but the deficit is likely to be far smaller than June's 33 per cent, he said.

In 2014, we received 42 per cent less rainfall in June and ended the June-Sept monsoon season with rains 12 per cent below average.

The weak start to the monsoon has delayed planting, with farmers sowing crops on 14.7 million hectares as of June 28, down almost 10 per cent on a year earlier.

For 2019, the IMD in late May forecast average rainfall, while private forecaster, Skymet, has predicted below-normal rainfall.

A normal, or average, monsoon means rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm during the four-month monsoon season, according to the IMD's classification.

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News Network
February 22,2020

New Delhi, Feb 22: China is delaying grant of clearance to India's proposal to send an Indian Air Force flight to carry relief material for people affected by coronavirus in the neighbouring country and bring back Indians from its city of Wuhan, official sources said Saturday.

India was to send a C-17 military transport aircraft to Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, on February 20 but the plane could not take off as permission was not granted for the flight.

"China is deliberately delaying grant of clearance for the evacuation flight," a high-level source said.

The aircraft was to carry a large consignment of medical supplies to China and bring back more Indians from Wuhan.

Sources said the Chinese side continued to maintain that there was no delay in granting permission for the flight to go, but "inexplicably" the clearance has not been given.

In a letter to President Xi Jinping earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed India's solidarity to the people and government of China in meeting the challenge of the coronavirus outbreak and offered to provide assistance to the country.

India then put together relief supplies in pursuance of Modi's commitment as a token of India's solidarity, particularly in the 70th year of the anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

"These supplies have been offered even as India faces tremendous shortage itself, given our ethos of helping others in their hour of need," said a source aware of the issue.

The items being supplied are gloves, surgical masks, feeding pumps and defibrillators based on the requirements as indicated by the Chinese side.

India's national carrier Air India has already evacuated around 640 Indians from Wuhan in two separate flights.

According to estimates, over 100 Indians are still living in Wuhan. A sizeable number of countries have evacuated their citizens from China and restricted movement of people and goods to and from the country in view of the massive outbreak of coronavirus there.

Indian nationals in Wuhan continue their long wait for the flight. The delay is causing them and their family members in India tremendous mental anguish, said the sources.

They said relief and evacuation flights from other countries including by France are allowed to operate by China but the permission has not come through in India's case.

"Are they not interested in Indian aid provided as our token of support? Why are they creating roadblock in evacuating our nationals from Wuhan and putting them under hardship and mental agony?" said a person aware of the issue.

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News Network
May 4,2020

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

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News Network
January 10,2020

New Delhi, Jan 10: An IPS officer's thumb was bitten by a woman protester when he was pushing back agitators, who were trying to march towards the Rashtrapati Bhawan here on Thursday, police sources said.

The protesters had gathered after a call was given by JNU Students' Union president Aishe Ghosh to march towards President's House to demand the removal of University's Vice Chancellor, M Jagadesh Kumar.

Ingit Pratap Singh, a 2011 batch officer, who is currently posted as the additional deputy commissioner of the southwest district, was injured in the attack.

According to sources, Singh was trying to pull a male protester when the woman, in a bid to shield her friend, bit Singh's left thumb.

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