India test-fires medium range nuclear capable Agni-II missile

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Pulwama, May 28: A major incident of a vehicle-borne IED blast was averted by the timely input and action by Pulwama Police, Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Army, the Jammu and Kashmir Police said.

According to sources, Pulwama Police got credible information last night about a terrorist moving with an explosive-laden car ready to blast at some location. They took out various parties of police and security forces and covered all possible routes keeping themselves and the police and security forces away from the road at safer locations.

The suspected vehicle came and a few rounds were fired towards it. A little ahead this vehicle was abandoned and the driver escaped in the darkness. On close look, the vehicle was seen to be carrying heavy explosives in a drum on the rear seat. Possibly more explosive would be fitted elsewhere in the vehicle, sources added.

The vehicle was kept under watch for the night. People in nearby houses were evacuated and the vehicle exploded in situ by the Bomb Disposal Squad as moving the vehicle would have involved serious threat, sources said.

The vehicle reportedly sports a number plate of a scooter registered somewhere in Kathua district of Jammu zone, sources added.

Kozhikode, Apr 24: A four-month-old baby girl, who had tested positive for COVID-19 and suffering from congenital heart disease, died in a hospital here in Kerala early Friday after suffering a cardiac arrest, officials said.

This is the third COVID-19 death and the first infant fatality in the state where two elderly people had succumbed to the disease earlier.

The baby was admitted to the Medical College Hospital here on April 21 with history of fever, cough, breathing difficulties and seizure after being treated at two other hospitals and the end came at 6 am, a medical bulletin said.

State Health Minister K K Shailaja said doctors had made maximum efforts to save the life of the child, whose family belonged to Payyanad near Manjeri in Malappuram district.

"Preliminary information which we have is that there has been some primary contact", she told reporters in Thiruvananthapuram.

The protocol for COVID-19 cases would be followed for the baby's last rites, the Minister added.

As of Thursday, the total active COVID-19 cases in the state stood at 129.

The bulletin said on arrival at the hospital on Tuesday the baby was in shock and had respiratory failure.

"She was resuscitated, mechanically ventilated and appropriate antibiotics for pneumonia and supportive measures to correct shock were started", it said adding the baby, however, continued to remain sick.

"Even though there was no history of any high or low risk contact or any epidemiological links as the child comes from SARI (Sever Acute Respiratory infection) criteria, she was admitted to the COVID-ICU and swab was taken and she tested positive", the bulletin said.

Contact tracing of those who had come in contact with the child was in progress.

Mallapuram District Medical Officer (Health) Dr Sakeena K said the child was having severe health issues from its birth itself and was admitted to a private hospital in Manjeri near here with breathing problem.

As her condition worsened, the baby was shifted to another hospital and later to the medical college hospital.

"The baby was having chest deformity and Atrial Septal Defect by birth which developed into severe health issues, the official added.