India would not discriminate among religions, we are not a theocratic country like Pakistan: Rajnath Singh

From March through May, around 1 crore migrant workers fled India’s megacities, afraid to be unemployed, hungry and far from family during the world’s biggest anti-Covid-19 lockdown.

Now, as Asia’s third-largest economy slowly reopens, the effects of that massive relocation are rippling across the country. Urban industries don’t have enough workers to get back to capacity, and rural states worry that without the flow of remittances from the city, already poor families will be even worse off -- and a bigger strain on state coffers.

Meanwhile, migrant workers aren’t expected to return to the cities as long as the virus is spreading and work is uncertain. States are rolling out stimulus programs, but India’s economy is hurtling for its first contraction in more than 40 years, and without enough jobs, a volatile political climate gets more so.

“This will be a huge economic shock, especially for households of short-term, cyclical migrants, who tend to come from vulnerable, poor and low-caste and tribal backgrounds,” said Varun Aggarwal, a founder of India Migration Now, a research and advocacy group based in Mumbai.

In the first 15 days of India’s lockdown, domestic remittances dropped by 90%, according to Rishi Gupta, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Fino Paytech Ltd., which operates the country’s biggest payments bank.

By the end of May, remittances were back to around 1750 rupees ($23), about half the pre-Covid average. Gupta’s not sure how soon it’ll fully recover. “Migrants are in no hurry to come back,” Gupta said. “They’re saying that they’re not thinking of going back at all.”

If workers stay in their home states long term, policymakers will have more than remittances to worry about. If consumption falls and the new surplus of labor drives wages down, Agarwal said, “there will also be a second-order shock to the local economy. Overall, not looking good.”

India announced a $277 billion stimulus package in May and followed it up with a $7 billion program aimed at creating jobs for 125 days for migrants in villages across 116 districts. Separately, local authorities are also looking for solutions.

Officials in Bihar have identified 2,500 acres of land that could be made available to investors, said Sushil Modi, deputy chief minister of Bihar, a state in east India. “We can use this crisis as an opportunity to speed up reforms,” he said.

The investors haven’t materialised yet, and in the meanwhile, state governments are relying on the national cash-for-work program that guarantees 100 days worth of wages per household.

Skilled workers don’t want to do manual labor offered through the program, and even if they did, says Amitabh Kundu of RIS, many think of it as beneath their station. “There will be an increase in social tensions,” he predicts. “Caste may again start playing a role. It’s absolute chaos.”

For skilled workers, initiatives vary:

* Uttar Pradesh, which received 3.2 million people, is compiling lists of skilled workers who need employment and trying to place them with local manufacturing and real estate industry associations. So far, the government says, it’s placed 300,000 people with construction and real estate firms.

* Bihar has placed returners in state-run infrastructure projects and hired others to stitch uniforms and make furniture for government-run schools, even as they waited in quarantine centres, said Pratyay Amrit, head of the state’s disaster management department.

* The eastern state of Odisha announced an urban wage employment program aimed at putting as many as 450,000 day labourers to work through September. Some 25,000 people have been employed, so far, under the scheme, G. Mathivathanan, principal secretary for housing and urban development said.

Attracting Investments

It’s not clear any of this will be enough to make a dent, says Ravi Srivastava, professor at New Delhi-based Institute of Human Development, adding that the states don’t have much of a track record on economic development.

“It was the failure of these states to improve governance and put development plans in place that led to the out-migration in the first place,” he said.

But officials and workers’ rights advocates see opportunity. Uttar Pradesh has established liaisons to encourage companies from the US, Japan and South Korea to establish manufacturing in the state. There and in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the government has made labour laws more friendly to employers, making it easier to hire and fire workers.

Modi, the minister from Bihar, said the migration may also give workers--historically a disenfranchised group--new power, particularly as urban centres struggle. “The way industries treated workers during the lockdown -- didn’t pay them, the living conditions were poor -- now these industries will realize the value of this force,” Modi said.

“In the days to come, labour will emerge as a force that can’t be ignored anymore,” he added. “That’s the new normal. We will work out how to ensure dignity, rights to our people who are going to work in other states.”

Bihar is due for elections by November, a vote that could be an early test of the mass migration’s political consequences. The state is currently governed by a coalition that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. Amitabh Kundu, a fellow at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries, a New Delhi-based government think-tank, said migrant workers are likely to be angry voters.

“Chief ministers are telling these migrants that they will not have to go back for work,” he said. “But their capacity to do something miraculous in the next four to five months is doubtful. If they can retain even one-fourth of the migrants, I would call it a success.”

New Delhi, Apr 14: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced the extension of a nationwide lockdown till May 3 to contain the spread of Covid-19 as the number of novel coronavirus cases surged past 10,000-mark on Tuesday. Hinting at partial relief, however, the Prime Minister said there could be some relaxations after April 20 in places where there is no hotspot.

Lockdown 2.0 will come into force from April 14 till May 3, PM Modi said in a televised address to the nation on Tuesday. The 19-day extension of the lockdown till May 3 is an attempt to contain the spread of novel coronavirus which has affected over 10,000 people in India. 

Even before #COVID19 cases touched 100, India made it compulsory for foreign returnees to remain in 14 days isolation. We imposed 21-day lockdown when we had 550 cases: PM Narendra Modi https://t.co/qi8MgG8qPQ

— ANI (@ANI) April 14, 2020
PM Modi said the Centre will closely monitor hotspots in states across India and added that those areas where there are no hotspots will get partial relief. “Till April 20, all districts, localities, states will be closely monitored, as to how strictly they are implementing norms. States where hotspots are contained could be allowed to resume some important activities, but with certain conditions,” the PM said.

The Prime Minister, in his address to India on Tuesday, began by lauding the efforts of Indians in the fight against novel coronavirus. “Covid-19 is spreading fast but India’s fight against coronavirus is going strong. It is because of your efforts that we are able to put up a fight,” the PM said as he thanked people for their co-operation.

PM Modi said, “People have gone through hardships to save India. I know how many difficulties you faced. I respectfully bow to the people of India for their sacrifice.”

The national lockdown first came into force from March 25 when the PM took an unprecedented measure in the fight against Covid-19. The lockdown was scheduled to end today.

STATES PUSHED FOR LOCKDOWN 2.0

The decision to extend the lockdown followed after a broad consensus emerged that the national lockdown should be extended by at least two weeks following a meeting between PM Modi and state chief ministers on Saturday.

It was reportedly after this meet with the Prime Minister that it was decided that the nationwide lockdown will be extended to tackle the spread of Coivid-19. The extension request from states came despite concerns that the shutdown will put millions out of work.

PM has taken correct decision to extend lockdown. Today, India’s position is better than many developed countries because we started lockdown early. If it is stopped now, all gains would be lost. To consolidate, it is imp to extend it

— Arvind Kejriwal (@ArvindKejriwal) April 11, 2020
"If it is stopped now, all gains would be lost. To consolidate, it is imp (important) to extend it," Arvind Kejriwal had written on Twitter after the meeting while he added that PM Modi had "taken (a) correct decision to extend (the) lockdown”.

Several states had, however, pushed for resumption of some economic activities like in the farming sector in areas where no cases of the novel coronavirus have been reported.

ALL THAT HAS HAPPENED TILL NOW

Prime Minister Narendra Modi first addressed an anxious nation on March 19 as the coronavirus pandemic emerged as a serious concern for the country. In his televised address, the PM asked the people to observe ‘Janata Curfew’ for March 22.
The Prime Minister urged Indians to remain indoors as much as possible as he suggested ways to battle the coronavirus pandemic.

On March 24, the Prime Minister came back and announced a 21-day lockdown across the country. In his second address, PM Modi said the step was taken as it was the only way to break the chain of infection. The lockdown was to be in effect till April 14.

PM Modi later asked citizens to make noise at 5 pm to show their appreciation for medics, nurses and sanitation workers. This call was well received as Indians came out to clap, clang metal vessels and ring bells to cheer workers battling the spread of the coronavirus.

Ten days into the lockdown, the Prime Minister addressed the nation again and asked people to light candles, lamps and hold mobile phone torches for nine minutes from 9 pm on April 5 to demonstrate a collective will to fight coronavirus.

As of Tuesday morning, the death toll due to coronavirus has climbed to 339 with over 50 deaths within 24 hours. The number of cases in the country, meanwhile, had crossed the 10,000-mark, according to the Union Health Ministry. Over a thousand have been cured and discharged.

Feb 22: A 20-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, travelled 400 miles(675 km) north to Anyang where she infected five relatives, without ever showing signs of infection, Chinese scientists reported on Friday, offering new evidence that the virus can be spread asymptomatically.

The case study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, offered clues about how the coronavirus is spreading, and suggested why it may be difficult to stop.

"Scientists have been asking if you can have this infection and not be ill? The answer is apparently, yes," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, who was not involved in the study.

China has reported a total of 75,567 cases of the virus known as COVID-19 to the World Health Organization (WHO) including 2,239 deaths, and the virus has already spread to 26 countries and territories outside of mainland China.

Researchers have reported sporadic accounts of individuals without any symptoms spreading the virus. What's different in this study is that it offers a natural lab experiment of sorts, Schaffner said.

"You had this patient from Wuhan where the virus is, travelling to where the virus wasn't. She remained asymptomatic and infected a bunch of family members and you had a group of physicians who immediately seized on the moment and tested everyone."

According to the report by Dr Meiyun Wang of the People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University and colleagues, the woman travelled from Wuhan to Anyang on Jan. 10 and visited several relatives. When they started getting sick, doctors isolated the woman and tested her for coronavirus. Initially, the young woman tested negative for the virus, but a follow-up test was positive.

All five of her relatives developed COVID-19 pneumonia, but as of Feb. 11, the young woman still had not developed any symptoms, her chest CT remained normal and she had no fever, stomach or respiratory symptoms, such as cough or sore throat.

Scientists in the study said if the findings are replicated, "the prevention of COVID-19 infection could prove challenging."

Key questions now, Schaffner said, are how often does this kind of transmission occur and when during the asymptomatic period does a person test positive for the virus.