'Indian economy saw weakest quarter growth in 5 yrs'

Agencies
August 27, 2019

Bengaluru, Aug 27: The Indian economy likely expanded at its slowest pace in more than five years in the April-June quarter, driven by weak investment growth and sluggish demand, according to economists polled by Reuters.

That would reinforce concerns seen in the minutes from the central bank's August meeting, which showed policymakers were worried about weak growth and indicated further rate cuts in the next few months to boost the slowing economy.

The poll median showed the economy was expected to have grown at a year-on-year pace of 5.7% in the June quarter, a touch slower than 5.8% in the preceding three months. But a large minority - about 40% of nearly 65 economists - expect an expansion of 5.6% or lower.

The GDP data is due to be released at 1200 GMT on Friday (5:30 PM IST).

If the forecast is realised, it would be the weakest start in the first three months of a fiscal year in seven years.

"The deceleration in growth that commenced in the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2019 is likely to have continued," said Rini Sen, India economist at ANZ.

"A host of high-frequency indicators - consumption and investment - have continued to weaken. The most prominent ones include auto sales, output of consumer durables, cement and steel production."

Domestic passenger vehicle sales in July dived at the steepest pace in nearly two decades and declined for the ninth straight month in July, largely due to a liquidity crunch causing huge job cuts in the sector.

These measures, in addition to the risk of further escalation of the U.S. and China trade war are weighing on demand and business confidence in India.

The median response to an extra question in the poll, which was taken Aug. 21-26, showed the average growth rate for the current fiscal year 2019-2020 is likely to be 6.5% despite a weak start. But it is a downgrade from 6.8% predicted just last month and well below the RBI's projection of 6.9%.

The RBI lowered its outlook for the fiscal year 2019-2020 at its August meeting. It has cut a total of 110 basis points in the repo rate since February, which includes an unconventional cut of 35 basis points earlier this month to 5.40%.

But with inflation not expected to rise anytime soon, the central bank will likely ease its benchmark rate by 25 basis points again to 5.15% at its October meeting, followed by a 15-basis-points cut in the first quarter of 2020, according to a separate Reuters poll.

Those cuts, in addition to a suite of recently announced fiscal measures, could provide some cushion for the economy in coming months.

On Friday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced reforms to revive economic growth, including rolling back recent tax hikes on foreign and domestic equity investors and several measures for industries.

"We believe that the measures announced by the finance minister will help to provide a fillip to credit growth, rate transmission and improving investor sentiment," noted economists at Morgan Stanley.

"We continue to see a slow recovery in growth, as monetary measures will help but may not be sufficient to create a V-shaped recovery, especially in the context of slowing global growth."

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News Network
May 18,2020

New Delhi, May 18: The nationwide tally of COVID-19 cases crossed one lakh on Monday with more people testing positive for the deadly virus in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and other states, even as a much-relaxed fourth phase of the lockdown began with restarting of market complexes, autos, taxis and inter-state buses in various parts of the country.

The death toll due to COVID-19 crossed the 3,000-mark too.

With an aim to reboot numerous locked down economic activities, authorities across the country ordered reopening of markets, intra-state transport services and even of barber shops and salons in some states, barring in containment zones.

However, schools, colleges, theatres, malls and religious gatherings are among those that would remain shut down, at least till May 31.

India has been under a lockdown since March 25, which was first supposed to be for 21 days or toll April 14, but was later extended till May 3, then further till May 17 and now for another two weeks till May 31.

However, a number of relaxations have been given in the current fourth phase, while states and union territories have also been granted significant flexibility for deciding the red, orange or green zones in terms of the quantum and severity of the virus spread.

In its morning 8 AM update, the Union Health Ministry put the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases 96,169 and the death toll at 3,029.

It also said that 36,824 people have so far recovered from the infection.

However, a news agency tally of figures announced by different states and UTs as of 9.40 PM put the number of those having tested positive for the infection at 1,00,096, with a death toll of 3,078 and recoveries at 38,596 across the country.

Maharashtra topped the nationwide tally with over 35,000 confirmed cases and 1,249 deaths, followed by Tamil Nadu with 11,760 confirmed cases and 81 deaths.

Gujarat has also reported 11,746 confirmed cases, while its death toll is higher than that of Tamil Nadu at 694.

Delhi has also crossed the 10,000 mark in terms of the number of confirmed cases, while its death toll has now reached 160.

Gujarat, during the day, recorded 366 new COVID-19 cases and 35 deaths, including 31 from the worst-hit Ahmedabad, taking the state's case count to 11,746 and the number of fatalities to 694, a health department official said.

Maharashtra reported 2,033 new cases, taking the tally to 35,058.

This was the second consecutive day when the state has reported more than 2,000 COVID-19 cases.

Mumbai alone reported 1,185 fresh cases and 23 more deaths, taking the total count of the city to 21,152 and the fatalities to 757.

Of the 1,185 new cases, 300 samples were tested positive in private laboratories between May 12 and 16.

Kerala also saw 29 new cases -- all but one being returnees from overseas and other states --  raising concerns about the state witnessing a possible third wave of the dreaded virus infection.

The state was first to report the virus infection, but at least twice it has already been seen as having flattened the curve of the infection.

The nationwide count of confirmed infections incidentally crossed the crucial one-lakh mark on a day when the fourth phase of the nationwide lockdown kicked in with several relaxations for economic and public activities, barring in containment zones or areas identified as serious hotspots of the virus infection.

Revising its strategy for COVID-19 testing, ICMR also said on Monday that returnees and migrants who show symptoms for influenza-like illness will be tested for coronavirus infection within seven days of ailment and stressed that no emergency clinical procedure, including deliveries, should be delayed for lack of testing.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in its revised strategy for coronavirus testing in India also added that all hospitalised patients who develop symptoms for influenza-like illness (ILI) and frontline workers involved in containment and mitigation of COVID-19 having such signs will also be tested for coronavirus infection through RT-PCR test.

Besides, asymptomatic direct and high-risk contacts of a confirmed case are to be tested once between day five and day 10 of coming in contact, the new document stated.

Asymptomatic contacts of a confirmed case were being tested once between day five and day 14.

The Health Ministry also said that for every one lakh population, there are 7.1 coronavirus cases in India so far as against 60 globally.

It also said the recovery rate of coronavirus cases in India stood at 38.39 per cent.

Besides, India also joined nearly 120 countries at a crucial conference of the World Health Organisation in pushing for an impartial and comprehensive evaluation of the global response into the coronavirus crisis as well as to examine the origin of the deadly infection.

Since the first case of the deadly coronavirus was reported in China last December, more than 47 lakh people have tested for this virus across the world and over 3 lakh have lost their lives.

India is the 11th most affected country, while the US tops the chart with over 14.9 lakh confirmed cases so far.

China's official tally of confirmed infections is less than 84,000, while it has reported more than 4,600 deaths.

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News Network
February 12,2020

New Delhi, Feb 12: The Centre on Wednesday said the NRC data in Assam is safe even though some technical issues were visible and that will be resolved soon.

The Union Home Ministry clarification came in view of reports that data of the final list of the National Register of Citizens has been made offline from its official website.

"The NRC data is safe. Some technical issues are in visibility on cloud. These are being resolved soon," a home ministry spokesperson said.

The data was not available for a couple of days and it created panic in the public, mostly among the people excluded from the list as the rejection certificates were yet to be issued.

NRC State Coordinator Hitesh Dev Sarma accepted that the data has been made offline, but refuted the allegation of any "malafide" intent in it.

The cloud service for the huge set of data was provided by IT firm Wipro and their contract was till October 19 last year. However, this was not renewed by the previous coordinator.

So, the data got offline from December 15 after it was suspended by Wipro, Sarma said.

He said the state coordination committee had decided to do necessary formalities in its meeting on January 30 and wrote to the Wipro during the first week of February.

"Once Wipro makes the data live, it will be available for public. We hope people will be able to access it in the next 2-3 days," Sarma said.

The complete detail of exclusion and inclusion of bonafide Indian citizens in the NRC was uploaded on its official website http://www.nrcassam.nic.in after the final list was published on August 31, 2019.

The final NRC was published by excluding 19,06,657 persons. A total of 3,11,21,004 names were included out of 3,30,27,661 applicants.

After the earlier NRC State Coordinator Prateek Hajela relinquished the charge on November 11 following his transfer to home state Madhya Pradesh on a direction from the Supreme Court, Sarma was appointed in his place on November 9.

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News Network
March 6,2020

New Delhi, Mar 6: Shares of YES Bank and State Bank of India came under huge selling pressure on Friday as developments unfolded regarding SBI picking stake in the private lender. Shares of the lender hit record low of Rs 5.55, plunging 85 per cent, and were trading below its previous low of Rs 8.16 hit on March 9, 2009.

SBI, on the other hand, slumped 11 per cent to Rs 257.35 on the BSE. The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was trading with a cut of over 3 per cent at 37,251.37 level.

In the past three months, share price of the private lender has plunged 41 per cent, while the state-owned lender has slipped 14 per cent. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has dipped 5.6 per cent till Thursday.

On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India superseded the board of troubled private sector lender YES Bank and imposed a 30-day moratorium on it “in the absence of a credible revival plan” amid a “serious deterioration” in its financial health.

During the moratorium, which came into effect from 6 pm on Thursday, YES Bank will not be allowed to grant or renew any loans, and “incur any liability”, except for payment towards employees’ salaries, rent, taxes and legal expenses, among others.

This is the first time that a bank of this size will be put under a moratorium by the RBI.

“The financial position of YES Bank had undergone a steady decline “largely due to inability of the bank to raise capital to address potential loan losses and resultant downgrades, triggering invocation of bond covenants by investors, and withdrawal of deposits,” RBI said in a statement.

“After the moratorium, the next step will be to infuse to money and keep the bank afloat. So from shareholders’ point of view, the future is certainly hazy as the capital requirement is huge. The good part, however, is that the RBI has stepped in and depositors don't have to worry,” says Siddharth Purohit, a research analyst at SMC Securities.

Meanwhile, analysts at Nomura believe that placing the Bank under moratorium implies that equity value in the bank would be negligible, and that the chances of private capital participating in future capital raising plan are near zero.

"Any resolution for Yes Bank is more proposed from the perspective of deposit holders and systemic stability, and not from the perspective of Yes Bank equity investors or even perpetual bond holders," they wrote in a note dated March 6.

In another development, SBI’s Board Thursday gave in-principle approval to consider an “investment opportunity” in YES Bank, even as it said “no decision had yet been taken to pick up stake in the bank”.

According to a  report, highly-placed sources indicated a rescue plan involving SBI and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) was being discussed and an announcement in this regard might be made soon.

“While the finer details of the deal are being worked out, it is anticipated that both SBI and LIC together will take a 51 per cent stake in the bank, with a one-year lock-in period,” the report said.

Most analysts believe it is a positive step for the Indian financial sector as the government has tried to avoid a repeat of IL&FS-like crisis.

“The move is a positive step for the financial sector as a whole. By this, the government has tried to avoid a repeat of IL&FS-like crisis and has saved the depositors,” said AK Prabhakar, Head of Research at IDBI Capital. While we know that YES Bank has a huge pile of bad loans, SBI is the only bank that has the capacity to absorb it, he added.

However, the valuation at which YES bank would be taken over remains a cause of concern.

Global brokerage firm JP Morgan Thursday cut its target price for YES Bank on Thursday to Rs 1 per share, taking into account the potential fall in the lender’s net worth due to stressed assets.

“We believe forced bailout investors will likely want the bank to be acquired at near-zero value to account for risks associated with the stress book and likely loss of deposits. We think the bank will need to be recapitalised at nominal equity value and could test dilution of additional tier 1 (AT1) capital. We remain underweight and cut our target price to Rs 1 as we believe net worth is largely impaired,” JP Morgan said in a note.

Global brokerage firm Nomura estimates a need of Rs 25,000-44,000 crore and adjusted for Rs 7,400 crore of current coverage, if the current stress of Rs 65,000-70,000 crore faces 70 per cent loss given default (LGD).

"It implies Rs 18,000-37,000 crore needed for provisioning against the current net worth of Rs 25,700 crore Also, to run as going concern, the bank would require over Rs 20,000 crore of CET-1 capital as well," the note said.

YES Bank has registered slippages of Rs 12,000 crore so far in FY20, while it has placed Rs 30,000 crore of loan assets under the watch list. Its deposits stood at Rs 2.09 trillion on September 30, 2019, while its advances totalled Rs 2.24 trillion. The bank has delayed publishing its December quarter results by a month to March 14.

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