Indian rupee rally mostly over; yuan to recover over time

June 6, 2014

Bangalore, Jun 6: The Indian rupee will only make scant gains in the next 12 months as the economy remains weak, although optimism around a new government and a narrowing current account deficit will underpin the currency, a poll found.

Indian rupee rallyThe rupee is among the best-performing emerging currencies this year, rising 4 four percent since January.

It hit a one-year high of 58.25 against the dollar on May 22 - a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's landslide victory in general elections.

But analysts believe its rally is largely over.

The poll of over 30 currency strategists, conducted June 2-5, predicted one U.S. dollar will fetch 59.25 rupees by the end of June, 59.20 in three months and 60.16 in a year. It was trading around 59.10 early on Friday.

Still, those are the strongest rupee forecasts in a long while. The consensus rose above 60 per dollar in the one- and three- month horizons for the first time since August and follow strong net inflows into Indian financial markets.

Over 337 billon rupees in foreign money poured into Indian stocks and bonds last month, up from almost nothing in April. India's stock market is trading near a record high.

"Much of the rupee's gains in May (were) driven by post-election optimism via portfolio flows into both equities and Indian government bonds," wrote Derek Halpenny at BTMU, who is expecting the rupee to trade at 59 per dollar in a year.

"Modi has been sending all the right signals so far, with considerations to allow at least 49 percent of foreign investments into all sectors."

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the first to win a majority in three decades, is expected to quickly pass key economic reforms and raise foreign investment caps in various sectors of the economy, including defence companies.

The first peek into the new government's policies will come around early July when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley unveils his maiden budget.

Recent data showing a sharp narrowing in the current account deficit to just 0.2 percent of gross domestic product should also prop up the rupee in the interim.

Still, weak growth will probably prevent the rupee from any significant break higher. The economy grew just 4.6 percent in the Jan-March quarter.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's current track to end its economic stimulus before year-end will also hold it back. And the Reserve Bank of India has been intervening in the market daily, buying dollars to prevent sharp rises in the currency from strong foreign inflows.

YUAN

The Chinese yuan is expected to slowly recover from a sharp slide earlier this year. That correction was believed to be engineered by the central bank to curb speculation that the currency will only go one way - up.

The yuan has been the worst performing emerging currency in Asia so far this year, losing 3 percent against the dollar, which wiped out all of its gains seen in 2013.

But it has shown some signs of stabilising in recent weeks.

The yuan is expected to trade at 6.24 per U.S. dollar by the end of June, appreciating to 6.19 in three months and further to 6.07 by May 2015. It was at 6.25 on Friday morning.

Beijing has announced a series of modest stimulus measures in recent months after the economy got off to a weak start this year. Business surveys in the last week signal activity may be starting to stabilise but a slight pick-up in parts of the economy does not mean a solid, broader recovery is under way.

Short positions on the yuan are now at their smallest level since late February, a separate Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

That poll also showed long positions on the rupee fell by around a third in the last two weeks amid persistent central bank intervention.

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Agencies
July 6,2020

The Covid-19 pandemic has made an unprecedented impact on the Indian businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and startups. According to a joint survey by FICCI and Indian Angel Network (IAN), the pandemic has hit the businesses of around 70% startups.

With uncertainty in the business environment and an unexpected shift in priorities of the government as well as corporates, many startups are struggling to survive, it says.

In a nationwide survey on the 'Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Startups' involving 250 startups, 70% participants said their businesses had been impacted by Covid-19 and around 12% had shut operations.

The survey shows only 22% startups have cash reserves to meet the fixed cost expenses over the next 3-6 months, and 68% are reducing operational and administrative expenses.

Around 30% of the companies said they would retrench employees if the lockdown was extended too long. The 43% startups have already started 20-40% salary cuts over April-June.

Over 33% startups said investors had put the investment decision on hold and 10% said the deals had been scrapped. Only 8% startups had received funds as per the deals signed before Covid-19 outbreak, the survey revealed.

The reduced funding has forced startups to put a hold on business development and manufacturing activities, which has resulted in loss of projected orders.

The survey highlights the need of an urgent relief package for startups, including possible purchase orders from the government, tax relief and swifter tax refunds, and immediate fiscal support measures, including grants, soft loans and payroll grants.

Besides 250 startups, 61 incubators and investors also participated in the survey.

While 96% of investors accepted that their investments in startups had been impacted by Covid-19, 92% said their investments in startups would continue to be low over the next six months.

Around 59% investors said they would prefer to work with the existing portfolio firms in the coming months. Only 41% said they would consider new deals.

"A comparison of priority investment sectors before and during Covid-19 shows 35% investors are now looking at investments in healthcare startups, followed by EdTech, AI/Deep Tech, FinTech and Agri," said the survey.

Around 44% incubators surveyed said their day-to-day operations had been considerably hit by Covid-19. Most incubators are now supporting their portfolio firms by providing them virtual platforms to interact with mentors, investors and industries.

Dilip Chenoy, FICCI Secretary General, said, "The startup sector is stressed for survival at the moment. The investment sentiment is also subdued and is expected to remain so in the coming months. Lack of working capital and cash flows may lead to major layoffs over the next 3-6 months."

Indian startups needed an enabling ecosystem and flow of funds to continue operations, the survey said.

Padmaja Ruparel, President, Indian Angel Network & Co-Chair of FICCI Startup Committee, said, "In these uncertain times, as investors, we must play an important role to provide the Indian startups funding, mentoring and hand-holding support to stay afloat and come out at the other end of this crisis."

To that end, IAN recently announced a debt fund to help IAN portfolio companies raise working capital and ensure business continuity by partnering with debt providers.

This must be replicated on a wider scale, so a larger number of startups are provided the capital support to make it during these tough times, Ruparel said.

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Agencies
March 15,2020

Cybercriminals continue to exploit public fear of rising coronavirus cases through malware and phishing emails in the guise of content coming from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US and World Health Organisation (WHO), says cybersecurity firm Kaspersky.

In the APAC region, Kaspersky has detected 93 coronavirus-related malware in Bangladesh, 53 in the Philippines, 40 in China, 23 in Vietnam, 22 in India and 20 in Malaysia. 

Single-digit detections were monitored in Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Myanmar, and Thailand. 

Along with the consistent increase of 2019 coronavirus cases comes the incessant techniques cybercriminals are using to prey on public panic amidst the global epidemic, the company said in a statement. 

Kaspersky also detected emails offering products such as masks, and then the topic became more commonly used in Nigerian spam emails. Researchers also found scam emails with phishing links and malicious attachments.

One of the latest spam campaigns mimics the World Health Organisation (WHO), showing how cybercriminals recognise and are capitalising on the important role WHO has in providing trustworthy information about the coronavirus.

"We would encourage companies to be particularly vigilant at this time, and ensure employees who are working at home exercise caution. 

"Businesses should communicate clearly with workers to ensure they are aware of the risks, and do everything they can to secure remote access for those self-isolating or working from home," commented David Emm, principal security researcher.

Some malicious files are spread via email. 

For example, an Excel file distributed via email under the guise of a list of coronavirus victims allegedly sent from the World Health Organisation (WHO) was, in fact, a Trojan-Downloader, which secretly downloads and installs another malicious file. 

This second file was a Trojan-Spy designed to gather various data, including passwords, from the infected device and send it to the attacker.

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News Network
February 21,2020

London, Feb 21: Scientists have discovered a new species of land snail, and have named it Craspedotropis Greta Thunberg in honour of the Swedish activist Greta Thunberg for her efforts to raise awareness about climate change.

According to the study, published in the Biodiversity Data Journal, the newly discovered species belongs to the so-called caenogastropods -- a group of land snails known to be sensitive to drought, temperature extremes, and forest degradation.

The scientists, including evolutionary ecologist Menno Schilthuizen from Naturalis Biodiversity Center in the Netherlands, said the snails were found very close to the research field station at Kuala Belalong Field Studies Centre in Brunei.

They added that the snails were discovered at the foot of a steep hill-slope, next to a river bank, foraging at night on the green leaves of understorey plants.

The effort aided by amateur scientist J.P. Lim, who found the first individual of the snail said, "Naming this snail after Greta Thunberg is our way of acknowledging that her generation will be responsible for fixing problems that they did not create."

"And it's a promise that people from all generations will join her to help," Lim said.

The researchers said they approached Thunberg who said that she would be "delighted" to have this species named after her.

The study work including, fieldwork, morphological study, and classification of identified specimen was carried out in a field centre with basic equipment and no internet access, the scientists said.

According to the study, the work was done by untrained ‘citizen scientists’ guided by experts, on a 10-day taxon expedition.

"While we are aware that this way of working has its limitations in terms of the quality of the output (for example, we were unable to perform dissections or to do extensive literature searches), the benefits include rapid species discovery and on-site processing of materials," the researchers wrote in the study.

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