Indian rupee rally mostly over; yuan to recover over time

June 6, 2014

Bangalore, Jun 6: The Indian rupee will only make scant gains in the next 12 months as the economy remains weak, although optimism around a new government and a narrowing current account deficit will underpin the currency, a poll found.

Indian rupee rallyThe rupee is among the best-performing emerging currencies this year, rising 4 four percent since January.

It hit a one-year high of 58.25 against the dollar on May 22 - a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's landslide victory in general elections.

But analysts believe its rally is largely over.

The poll of over 30 currency strategists, conducted June 2-5, predicted one U.S. dollar will fetch 59.25 rupees by the end of June, 59.20 in three months and 60.16 in a year. It was trading around 59.10 early on Friday.

Still, those are the strongest rupee forecasts in a long while. The consensus rose above 60 per dollar in the one- and three- month horizons for the first time since August and follow strong net inflows into Indian financial markets.

Over 337 billon rupees in foreign money poured into Indian stocks and bonds last month, up from almost nothing in April. India's stock market is trading near a record high.

"Much of the rupee's gains in May (were) driven by post-election optimism via portfolio flows into both equities and Indian government bonds," wrote Derek Halpenny at BTMU, who is expecting the rupee to trade at 59 per dollar in a year.

"Modi has been sending all the right signals so far, with considerations to allow at least 49 percent of foreign investments into all sectors."

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the first to win a majority in three decades, is expected to quickly pass key economic reforms and raise foreign investment caps in various sectors of the economy, including defence companies.

The first peek into the new government's policies will come around early July when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley unveils his maiden budget.

Recent data showing a sharp narrowing in the current account deficit to just 0.2 percent of gross domestic product should also prop up the rupee in the interim.

Still, weak growth will probably prevent the rupee from any significant break higher. The economy grew just 4.6 percent in the Jan-March quarter.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's current track to end its economic stimulus before year-end will also hold it back. And the Reserve Bank of India has been intervening in the market daily, buying dollars to prevent sharp rises in the currency from strong foreign inflows.

YUAN

The Chinese yuan is expected to slowly recover from a sharp slide earlier this year. That correction was believed to be engineered by the central bank to curb speculation that the currency will only go one way - up.

The yuan has been the worst performing emerging currency in Asia so far this year, losing 3 percent against the dollar, which wiped out all of its gains seen in 2013.

But it has shown some signs of stabilising in recent weeks.

The yuan is expected to trade at 6.24 per U.S. dollar by the end of June, appreciating to 6.19 in three months and further to 6.07 by May 2015. It was at 6.25 on Friday morning.

Beijing has announced a series of modest stimulus measures in recent months after the economy got off to a weak start this year. Business surveys in the last week signal activity may be starting to stabilise but a slight pick-up in parts of the economy does not mean a solid, broader recovery is under way.

Short positions on the yuan are now at their smallest level since late February, a separate Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

That poll also showed long positions on the rupee fell by around a third in the last two weeks amid persistent central bank intervention.

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News Network
April 17,2020

Paris, Apr 17: Even as virologists zero in on the virus that causes COVID-19, a very basic question remains unanswered: do those who recover from the disease have immunity?

There is no clear answer to this question, experts say, even if many have assumed that contracting the potentially deadly disease confers immunity, at least for a while.

"Being immunised means that you have developed an immune response against a virus such that you can repulse it," explained Eric Vivier, a professor of immunology in the public hospital system in Marseilles.

"Our immune systems remember, which normally prevents you from being infected by the same virus later on."

For some viral diseases such a measles, overcoming the sickness confers immunity for life.

But for RNA-based viruses such as Sars-Cov-2 -- the scientific name for the bug that causes the COVID-19 disease -- it takes about three weeks to build up a sufficient quantity of antibodies, and even then they may provide protection for only a few months, Vivier told AFP.

At least that is the theory. In reality, the new coronavirus has thrown up one surprise after another, to the point where virologists and epidemiologists are sure of very little.

"We do not have the answers to that -- it's an unknown," Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's Emergencies Programme said in a press conference this week when asked how long a recovered COVID-19 patient would have immunity.

"We would expect that to be a reasonable period of protection, but it is very difficult to say with a new virus -- we can only extrapolate from other coronaviruses, and even that data is quite limited."

For SARS, which killed about 800 people across the world in 2002 and 2003, recovered patients remained protected "for about three years, on average," Francois Balloux director of the Genetics Institute at University College London, said.

"One can certainly get reinfected, but after how much time? We'll only know retroactively."

A recent study from China that has not gone through peer review reported on rhesus monkeys that recovered from Sars-Cov-2 and did not get reinfected when exposed once again to the virus.

"But that doesn't really reveal anything," said Pasteur Institute researcher Frederic Tangy, noting that the experiment unfolded over only a month.

Indeed,several cases from South Korea -- one of the first countries hit by the new coronavirus -- found that patients who recovered from COVID-19 later tested positive for the virus.

But there are several ways to explain that outcome, scientists cautioned.

While it is not impossible that these individuals became infected a second time, there is little evidence this is what happened.

More likely, said Balloux, is that the virus never completely disappeared in the first place and remains -- dormant and asymptomatic -- as a "chronic infection", like herpes.

As tests for live virus and antibodies have not yet been perfected, it is also possible that these patients at some point tested "false negative" when in fact they had not rid themselves of the pathogen.

"That suggests that people remain infected for a long time -- several weeks," Balloux added. "That is not ideal."

Another pre-publication study that looked at 175 recovered patients in Shanghai showed different concentrations of protective antibodies 10 to 15 days after the onset of symptoms.

"But whether that antibody response actually means immunity is a separate question," commented Maria Van Kerhove, Technical Lead of the WHO Emergencies Programme.

"That's something we really need to better understand -- what does that antibody response look like in terms of immunity."

Indeed, a host of questions remain.

"We are at the stage of asking whether someone who has overcome COVID-19 is really that protected," said Jean-Francois Delfraissy, president of France's official science advisory board.

For Tangy, an even grimmer reality cannot be excluded.

"It is possible that the antibodies that someone develops against the virus could actually increase the risk of the disease becoming worse," he said, noting that the most serious symptoms come later, after the patient had formed antibodies.

For the moment, it is also unclear whose antibodies are more potent in beating back the disease: someone who nearly died, or someone with only light symptoms or even no symptoms at all. And does age make a difference?

Faced with all these uncertainties, some experts have doubts about the wisdom of persuing a "herd immunity" strategy such that the virus -- unable to find new victims -- peters out by itself when a majority of the population is immune.

"The only real solution for now is a vaccine," Archie Clements, a professor at Curtin University in Perth Australia, told AFP.

At the same time, laboratories are developing a slew of antibody tests to see what proportion of the population in different countries and regions have been contaminated.

Such an approach has been favoured in Britain and Finland, while in Germany some experts have floated the idea of an "immunity passport" that would allow people to go back to work.

"It's too premature at this point," said Saad Omer, a professor of infectious diseases at the Yale School of Medicine.

"We should be able to get clearer data very quickly -- in a couple of months -- when there will be reliable antibody tests with sensitivity and specificity."

One concern is "false positives" caused by the tests detecting antibodies unrelated to COVID-19.

The idea of immunity passports or certificates also raises ethical questions, researchers say.

"People who absolutely need to work -- to feed their families, for example -- could try to get infected," Balloux.

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Agencies
January 7,2020

Washington, Jan 7: Facebook will ban deepfake videos ahead of the US elections but the new policy will still allow heavily edited clips so long as they are parody or satire, the social media giant said Tuesday.

Deepfake videos are hyper-realistic doctored clips made using artificial intelligence or programs that have been designed to accurately fake real human movements.

In a blog published following a Washington Post report, Facebook said it would begin removing clips that were edited--beyond for clarity and quality--in ways that "aren't apparent to an average person" and could mislead people.

Clips would be removed if they were "the product of artificial intelligence or machine learning that merges, replaces or superimposes content onto a video, making it appear to be authentic," the statement from Facebook vice-president Monika Bickert said.

However, the statement added: "This policy does not extend to content that is parody or satire, or video that has been edited solely to omit or change the order of words."

US media noted the new guidelines would not cover videos such as the 2019 viral clip -- which was not a deepfake -- of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that appeared to show her slurring her words.

Facebook also gave no indication on the number of people assigned to identify and take down the offending videos, but said videos failing to meet its usual guidelines would be removed, and those flagged clips would be reviewed by teams of third-party fact-checkers -- among them AFP.

The news agency has been paid by the social media giant to fact-check posts across 30 countries and 10 languages as part of a program starting in December 2016, and including more than 60 organisations.

Content labeled "false" is not always removed from newsfeeds but is downgraded so fewer people see it -- alongside a warning explaining why the post is misleading.

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Agencies
June 7,2020

New Delhi, Jun 7: The Government of India (GoI) must strengthen the laws to protect animals, said People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) India CEO Dr Manilal Valliyate on Sunday, following an elephant's death in Kerala and cow injured due to ingestion of explosives in Himachal Pradesh.

"Such incidents are not just restricted to certain regions but are happening all across the country. PETA receives more than 100 similar cases every day. People send in their complaints to us, not just for cows and elephants but for so many other animals as well," he said.

The PETA chief urged the GoI to strengthen the laws established to protect animals.

"As per the current laws set out against animal cruelty, the perpetrator would only be charged Rs 50,000 as a fine. That is equivalent to no punishment at all," added PETA India CEO.

He expressed his anguish against municipal agencies as well, saying that they are not doing "serious" work. He also highlighted how cows are left on the roads to wander, after milking them, to feed on garbage, in several parts of the country.

"These injustices against animals through explosives has been going on for quite a while. But for the first time, it has received such public attention," he said.

After a pregnant elephant was fed cracker-filled pineapple and her eventual death on May 27 in Kerala's Palakkad district, a pregnant cow sustained fatal injuries on May 25 due to accidental ingestion of explosives in Dadh village of Bilaspur district of Himachal Pradesh.

One person has been arrested in the Dadh village for allegedly hurting the cow.

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