Indian soldier killed, 2 injured as Pakistani troops open fire along LoC in J&K

New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

Jan 6: India’s Finance Ministry has delivered a challenge to its revenue collectors: meet tax targets despite $20 billion of corporate tax cuts.

Through a video conference on Dec. 16, officials were exhorted to meet the direct tax mop-up target of 13.4 trillion rupees ($187 billion), a government official told reporters. Collection in the eight months to November grew at 5% from a year earlier, against the desired 17%.

The missive shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s urgent need to buoy public finances in a slowing economy where April-November tax collections were half the amount budgeted. Authorities withheld some payments to states and have capped ministries’ expenditure as the fiscal deficit ballooned beyond the target.

The government’s efforts to maintain its deficit goal goes against advice from some quarters, including central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, who urged more spending to spur economic growth.

It’s uncertain though how much room Modi’s administration has to boost expenditure, given that it may already be borrowing as much as 540 billion rupees through state-run companies, a figure that isn’t reflected on the federal balance sheet. Uncertainty about public finances pushed up sovereign yields in November and December, compelling Das to announce unconventional policies to keep costs in check.

“This is not a time to conceal the fiscal deficit by off-budget borrowing or deferring payments,” said Indira Rajaraman, an economist and a former member of the Reserve Bank of India’s board. “If they were to stick to the target, that would be catastrophic because there is so much pump-priming that is needed right now.”

GDP grew 4.5% in the quarter ended September, the slowest pace in more than six years as both consumption and investments cooled in Asia’s third-largest economy. Only government spending supported the expansion, piling pressure on Modi to keep stimulating.

S&P Global Ratings warned in December it may downgrade India’s sovereign ratings if economic growth doesn’t recover. Government support seems to be waning now, with ministries asked to cap spending in the final quarter of the financial year at 25% of the amount budgeted rather than 33% allowed earlier. This new rule will hamstring sectors including agriculture, aviation and coal, where not even half of annual targets have been disbursed.

As the federal government runs short of money, it’s been delaying payouts to state administrations.

Private hospitals have threatened to suspend cash-less services to government employees over non-payment of dues, while a builder informed the stock exchange about delayed rental payments from no less than the tax office itself.

India is considering a litigation-settlement plan that will allow companies to exit lingering tax disputes by paying a portion of the money demanded by the government, the Economic Times newspaper reported Saturday.

The move will help improve the ease of doing business besides unlocking a part of the almost 8 trillion rupees ($111 billion) caught up in these disputes. The step, which is being considered as part of the annual budget, could also bridge India’s fiscal gap.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has refused to comment on the deficit goal before the official budget presentation due Feb. 1.

A deviation from target, if any, “will need to be balanced with a credible consolidation plan further-out,” said Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.

New Delhi, Jul 21: Air India trade unions have complained to Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Puri that the government has now turned a blind eye to the management's ethnic cleansing at lower levels through compulsory leave without pay (LWP), redundancies and wage cuts.

In a letter to Puri, the Joint Action Forum of Air India unions said, "We are deeply ashamed to say that it seems that after praising our Air Indian Corona Warriors at grand functions, respectfully, the government has now turned a blind eye to this management's ethnic cleansing of Air Indians at the lower levels, through compulsory LWP, redundancies and wage cuts."

The Joint Action Forum of Air India unions strongly opposes this Compulsory Leave without pay scheme as it is an illegal practice and is not a voluntary scheme.

"In fact the Board resolution itself empowers the Chairman and Managing Director with extraordinary powers, which seem akin to a High Court, to pack off employees on 2 years leave (extended to 5 years) at CMD's discretion or at the arbitrary whim of the Regional heads," the trade unions said.

"This said Compulsory LWP scheme violates every labour law put in place by Parliament and orders of the Supreme Court and various other courts and seeks to dispossess the lower categories workers of their legally guaranteed rights," it added.

The trade unions have pointed out that the redundancies are at the elite management cadre level and not the workers.

"We are indeed shocked that the management of Air India could prepare and formulate a scheme for compulsorily sending workers on leave without pay, which is akin to an illegal lay-off, under the garb of a Leave Without Pay, when ironically the redundancy actually lies in the upper echelons of management and not with the humble workers of Air India, who have slogged to make our Airline the treasure it is," they complained to Puri.

"It must be noted that out of 11,000 permanent employees, our management occupies almost 25% as Executive Cadre, with little or no accountability. Solely amongst the Elite Management Cadre, we have 121 top officers ranking from DGMS, GMs, EDs to Functional Directors, most of whom are either performing duplicate job functions or are indeed redundant and not to mention the retired relics serving as consultants and also the CEOs of various subsidiary companies," they added.

Trade unions said the redundancy or compulsory leave without pay scheme if any at all, has to apply only to these Executives, more so, when they do not even have protection of labour laws or Supreme Court orders.

Strangely, the topmost corporate executive cadre and the backroom Generals, have saved themselves from the axe of wage cuts, by sacrificing a piffling of a few grand, whilst the frontline warriors of flying cabin crew, engineers, ground staff have borne the biggest brunt head on, the unions said.