With India's inflation ticking higher, it may be time for RBI to pause

News Network
July 16, 2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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Agencies
June 2,2020

Singapore, Jun 2: Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday downgraded 11 Indian banks along with as many non-financial companies and infrastructure majors besides four government-related issuers following a downgrade of the Indian government's issuer rating to Baa3 from Baa2 with a negative outlook.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, volatile oil prices and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets, said Moody's.

The Indian banking sector has been affected given the disruptions to India's economic activity from the coronavirus outbreak, which is weakening borrowers' credit profiles, it added.

The 11 lenders include Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Canara Bank, Central Bank of India, Export-Import Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, IndusInd Bank, Punjab National Bank, State Bank of India and Union Bank of India.

The 11 non-finance companies are Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Oil India, Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Petronet LNG, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Reliance Industries, UPL Corporation and Genpact.

The 11 infrastructure companies are NTPC, NHPC, National Highways Authority of India, Power Grid Corporation, Gail India, Adani Green Energy Restricted Group (RG-2), Adani Transmission Restricted Group, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Transmission, Adani Electricity Mumbai and Azure Power Solar Energy.

The four Indian government-related issuers are Indian Railway Finance Corporation, Housing and Urban Development Corporation, Power Finance Corporation and REC Ltd.

"Government-related issuers in India have been affected because of disruptions to India's economy which will weaken borrowers' credit profiles," said Moody's.

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News Network
January 22,2020

New Delhi, Jan 22: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Wednesday said Indian values consider all religions equal, and that is why the country is secular and never became a theocratic state like Pakistan.

Speaking at the NCC Republic Day Camp in Delhi, Singh said: "We (India) said we would not discriminate among religions. Why did we do that? Our neighbouring country has declared that their state has a religion. They have declared themselves a theocratic state. We didn't declare so."

"Even America is a theocratic country. India is not a theocratic country. Why? Because our saints and seers did not just consider the people living within our borders as part of the family, but called everyone living in the world as one family," the minister said.

Singh underlined that India had never declared its religion would be Hindu, Sikh or Buddhist and people of all religions could live here.

"They gave the slogan of 'Vasudev Kutumbakam' -- the whole world is one family. This message has gone to the whole world from here only," he added.

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A Member of Va…
 - 
Thursday, 23 Jan 2020

 

Very thoughtful and eye-catching statement by Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh.

Sir, I kindly request you to convey this beautiful message to your Party’s comrades, who are deprived of this dosage for long times and are badly need of this.  

Also, for those from your Party, who are, time and again, spitting the venomous rhetoric against Dalits, Muslims, Christians and others alike.

Yashwant Sinhaji is now doing a wonderful job in this regard.

You will also follow his suit for sure in the days to come; that’s what your honest statement indicates.

    

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News Network
April 2,2020

New Delhi,  Apr 2: Muslim cleric Imam Umer Ilyasi appealed to all the individuals who attended Tablighi Jamaat congregation at Nizamuddin Markaz in Delhi recently, not to hide from the government and not to be scared of it.

"I appeal to all the Muslim brothers and mosque managing committees involved in the Jamaat congregation to please come out and inform the government. You do not need to feel scared of the government," Ilyasi told news agency.

He added: "You do not need to feel scared of the government. If you are quarantined, it doesn't mean you will be punished. This is for your and other people's safety."
On the subject of people likely to be quarantined, he said that if one does get quarantined, he or she must not think those quarantine facilities are jails. "If you are quarantined, it doesn't mean you will be punished. This is for your and other people's safety. Quarantine is the cure, you do not need to worry about it," he added.

Ilyasi further appealed to the people that one must not associate religion with the coronavirus outbreak. "Islam talks about saving one person's life and securing a person's life. Do not connect the outbreak with religion as this outbreak does not affect any religion or caste in particular," he said.

With regards to the lockdown being imposed by the centre, he said: "I appeal to all that we must obey the lockdown judiciously as there is no medicine or cure for this disease."
The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare's latest bulletin said that there are 1,834 coronavirus positive cases in India, including 1,649 active cases, 144 cured/discharged/migrated people and 41 deaths.

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