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With India's inflation ticking higher, it may be time for RBI to pause

News Network
July 16, 2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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Agencies
July 13,2020

Jaipur, July 13: Amid a deepening political crisis in Rajasthan where the number 2 leader of the Congress party Sachin Pilot has revolted, over 200 Income Tax (I-T) sleuths raided the residences and properties of two of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s close confidants.

The Income Tax department has carried out searches at over a dozen locations linked to Congress leader Dharamender Rathore as well as jewellery firm owner Rajiv Arora, both of whom are considered close to Gehlot.

Officials said that the raids that are underway in Jaipur, Kota, Delhi, and Mumbai were done after a complaint of tax evasion was made. Under the scanner, they said, are transactions that were made outside the country.

The curious timing of the Income Tax department’s action against Gehlot’s aides has made the Congress accuse the sleuths of acting on the behest of the BJP.

Congress spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala tweeted: “After all, BJP's lawyers came on the field. The Income Tax Department started raids in Jaipur. When will ED arrive?”

The Congress is facing a cliffhanger in Rajasthan after the open rebellion by deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot, who on Sunday night claimed that he had the support of 30 MLAs and that Gehlot was leading a minority government in the state.

However, Congress leader Avinash Pande on Monday said 109 MLAs have signed a letter of support to the chief minister, well above the majority mark of 100. The party has issued a whip to all the MLAs, asking them to attend the Congress Legislature Party meeting at 10.30 am. 

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News Network
April 5,2020

New Delhi, April 5: People were seen buying diyas and candles across the country to light them at 9 p.m. on Sunday to fight the "darkness of coronavirus" as requested by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Although the country is under a lockdown and all the shops barring those selling essential items are shut, but a number of makeshift roadside shops and carts have cropped up selling earthen lamps or diyas at various places.

The earthen lamps, along with other 'puja samgari', are also sold near various temples. Those shops also opened on Sunday.

Gatherings at the temples and other religious places too are barred.
Those who did not find diyas in their localities contended with candles available at the local general stores.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had on April 3 appealed to people in a televised address to light diyas and candles on April 5 at 9 pm to fight the darkness spread by coronavirus pandemic.

"Friends, amidst the darkness spread by the corona pandemic, we must continuously progress towards light and hope. We must defeat the deep darkness of the crisis by spreading the glory of light in all four directions," said the Prime Minister in a video message.

"And that is why, this Sunday, on April 5, we must all together, challenge the darkness spread by the corona crisis, introducing it to the power of light. On this day, we must awaken the superpower of 130 crore Indians. We must take the super resolve of 130 crore Indians to even greater heights," Modi said.

He asked the people to turn off all the lights in their homes and stand at doors or balconies and light candles or diyas, torches or mobile flashlights for 9 minutes on April 5.

"In that light, in that lustre, in that radiance, let us resolve in our minds that we are not alone, that no one is alone! 130 crore Indians are committed, through a common resolve!" he said.
PM Modi's call to light diyas, torches or mobile flashlights amid the lockdown has proved to be a boon for shopkeepers selling diyas and candles.

"Sales of diyas have increased to 50 per cent and we also got orders. It has happened because of Modi ji's appeal. We are with him in this," Ram Ravi Kumar, a shopkeeper in Delhi told news agency.

Vikas Kumar, a resident of Patna, said, "I have bought 50 diyas for today. PM Modi had said that people have to light the diyas for nine minutes after switching off light at home."
Modi has asked citizens to not assemble anywhere while participating in this programme and emphasised on the importance of social distancing to prevent coronavirus spread.

Meanwhile, the number of positive cases of coronavirus in the country continues to surge. As per the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is 3,374 with 79 deaths.

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Agencies
February 5,2020

New Delhi, Feb 5: Days after a gunman opened fire in Delhi's Shaheen Bagh, the epicentre of anti-CAA movement, YouTuber Gunja Kapoor was detained at the protest site on Wednesday after she was caught covertly filming the protests in a burqa.

Kapoor runs the channel ‘Right Narrative’ on YouTube and her pinned tweet on Twitter says she is followed on the microblogging site by PM Narendra Modi.

According to police, the protesters turned suspicious after Kapoor asked them "too many questions". She was caught by some of the women protesters after they identified her as the popular YouTuber. The incident led to a commotion at Shaheen Bagh, the epicentre of protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), a senior police official said.

She was taken to Sarita Vihar police station where her identity was ascertained, police said.

The incident sparked outrage on social media. Many took to Twitter to question why Kapoor was at the protest in disguise. Others expressed concern about her motives at secretly filming the protests.

Meanwhile, praises flew in for the women of Shaheen Bagh who can be seen defending Kapoor from angry protesters after she was caught.

This is not the first time that a right wing social media activist has landed in trouble in Shaheen Bagh where residents and other women and children have been sitting in protest for nearly two months since the passing of the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 in December last year.

In January, Deepa Sharma had posted videos online about the "traumatic" experience she had when she was allegedly heckled and harassed by Shaheen Bagh protesters. While the woman's claim could never be verified, other pieces of rampant fake news aimed at delegitimising and villainising protesters has taken social media by storm.

From doctored videos of women protesters allegedly accepting they were paid Rs 500 to attend protests to alleged fights over biriyani and anti-India sloganeering, trolls on social media seem to be working overtime to taint the ongoing protests.

The latter, however, show no signs of giving up. In fact, as Delhi nears elections on February 8, protesters have arranged for music performances by eminent artists, including pop celebrity Prateek Kuhad, till February 7.

Sit in protests take place 24x7 with women showing up in thousands to spend the night and sing songs of protest. And with polls around the corner, the protests have become an active part of political discourse with Aam Aadmi Party's Manish Sisodia expressing his support for the protesters at a recent press conference.

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