India's retail inflation hits 8-month high of 3.18% on back of higher food prices

Agencies
July 13, 2019

New Delhi, Jul 13: India's macro-economic data presented a slightly grim picture as food prices pushed India's retail inflation higher in June, and lower manufacturing output slowed down the country's industrial production in May.

The two key economic macro-data points -- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for May and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June -- were released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday.

As per the data furnished by the National Statistical Office (NSO), higher food prices accelerated India's June retail inflation to 3.18 per cent from 3.05 per cent in May.

However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the CPI in June 2019 was lower than the corresponding period of last year when retail inflation stood at 4.92 per cent.

The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) inflated to 2.17 per cent during the month under review from an expansion of 1.83 per cent in May 2019.

Product-wise, the prices of milk-based items, egg, meat and fish increased in March YoY. In contrast, a deflation trend was witnessed in the cost of vegetables and pulses. 

Prices of milk-based products rose marginally by 0.68 per cent, while egg became dearer by 1.62 per cent and meat and fish prices recorded a rise of 9.01 per cent.

On a sub-category basis, vegetable prices increased on a YoY basis in June to 4.66 per cent. The category of "pulses and products" became expensive 5. 68 per cent and that of "sugar and confectionery" (-)0.09 per cent.

In terms of IIP, the country's factory output growth eased in May 2019 as it rose by 3.1 per cent from a revised growth of 4.32 per cent reported for April 2019. 

Even on a YoY basis, May's industrial production growth of 3.1 per cent was lower than the 3.8 per cent achieved during the corresponding month of the previous fiscal. 

"The cumulative growth for the April-May 2019 period over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 3.7 per cent," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in 'Quick Estimates of IIP.

Besides, the output rate of the manufacturing sector rose 2.5 per cent in May from a year-on-year (YoY) rise of 3.6 per cent. On a YoY level, mining production grew 3.2 per cent from a rise of 5.8 per cent and the sub-index of electricity generation was higher by 7.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent.

Among the six use-based classification groups, the output of primary goods, with the highest weightage of 34.04, grew by 2.5 per cent. The output of intermediate goods, which has the second highest weightage, inched up by 0.6 per cent. 

Similarly, output of consumer non-durables rose 7.7 per cent, however, consumer durables slipped (-)0.1 per cent. 

In addition, output of infrastructure or construction goods increased by 5 .5 per cent, but that of capital goods inched-up by 0.8 per cent. In terms of industries, 12 out of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have showed positive growth during the month under review as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

"The industry group 'Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, ex cept furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials' has shown the highest positive growth of 24.8 per cent followed by 15.9 per cen t in 'Manufacture of food products' and 9.4 per cent in 'Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products." 

"On the other hand, the industry group 'Manufacture of paper and paper pro ducts' has shown the highest negative growth of (-) 12.2 per cent followed b y (-) 9.9 per cent in 'Manufacture of furniture' and (-) 8.7 per cent in 'manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment'." 

On IIP, Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA said: "The sequential dip in industrial growth in May 2019 reflects the trend in core sector expansion, which offset the shallower drag from the contraction in auto production, as well as an improvement in growth of non oil merchandise exports." 

According to Madhavi Arora, Economist, Edelweiss Securities said: "The CPI inflation ticks up to 3.18 per cent but remains overall benign... The uptick in June was largely led by sequential uptick in food components, while sequential increase in core components moderated." 

"The food inflation seasonal uptrend will likely continue in the near term , albeit stay benign overall, partly reflecting structural change in food in flation dynamics." 

Devendra Pant, Chief Economist, India Ratings and Research, said: "CPI inflation is likely to follow its gradual increasing trend in the first half of this fiscal and likely to touch 4 per cent mark in third quarter (mainly due to base effect). 

"The August 2019 Monetary Policy growth inflation dynamics of Indian economy are evenly balanced," he said.

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News Network
January 22,2020

Jan 22: Microsoft Corp’s chief executive officer said he worries that mistrust between the US and China will increase technology costs and hurt economic growth at a critical time.

Using the $470 billion semiconductor industry as an example of a sector that is already globally interconnected, Satya Nadella said the two countries will have to find ways to work together, rather than creating different supply chains for each country.

“All you are doing is increasing transaction costs for everybody if you completely separate,” Nadella said in an interview with Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait at Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead conference in Davos. That’s a concern as the executive said the world is on the cusp of a revolution around technology and artificial intelligence.

“If we take steps back in trust or increase transaction costs around technology, all we are doing is sacrificing global economic growth,” he said.

The agreement signed last week between the US and China was “not sufficient,” said Nadella, but represented “progress” on the issue of intellectual property protections for US technology companies working with China.

Nadella said he worries about the development of two separate internets, noting that to some degree they already exist “and they will get amplified in the future” with massive technology companies already in place in China.

The viewpoint clashes with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who has been sceptical about the idea that ongoing US-China trade tensions could ever lead to a bifurcated system of two internets.

China and the US are the two leading AI superpowers, however the cooling political relations between them have slowed the international collaboration.

Nadella also warned that countries that fail to attract immigrants will lose out as the global tech industry continues to grow. The CEO has previously voiced concern about India’s Citizenship Amendment Act, calling it “sad.”

“However, Nadella said he remained hopeful.

“The fact that there is a 70-year history of nation-building, I think it’s a very strong foundation. I grew up in that country. I’m proud of that heritage. I’m influenced by that experience.”

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Agencies
May 27,2020

Global health experts on Wednesday said novel coronavirus is here to stay for more than a year and called for aggressive testing to prevent its spread.

In an interaction with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, health experts Professor Ashish Jha and Professor Johan Giesecke talked about the COVID-19 pandemic as part of the series being aired on Congress social media channels.

While Jha exuded confidence that a vaccine will be available in a year's time, Prof Giesecke said India should practice a lockdown that is as 'soft' as possible, as a severe lockdown will ruin its economy very quickly.

"When the economy is opened up after lockdown, you have to create confidence among people," Harvard health expert Ashish Jha told Gandhi.

Jha is a professor of Global Health at TH Chan School of Public Health and Director, Harvard Global Health institute.

He said coronavirus is a '12-18 months' problem and the world is not going to be free of this till 2021.

The expert also called for the need for aggressive testing strategy for high-risk areas.

Gandhi, while interacting with the experts, said life is going to change post COVID-19.

"If 9/11 was a new chapter, this will be a new book," he remarked.

Professor Johan Giesecke, former chief scientist, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said India should have a 'soft lockdown'.

"The situation that India is in, I think, you should have a soft lockdown, as soft as possible," he said.

"I think for India, you will ruin your economy very quickly if you have a severe lockdown. It is better, skip the lockdown, take care of the old and the frail...," he noted.

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News Network
June 18,2020

New Delhi, Jun 18: The Delhi High Court Thursday asked the Delhi Police to file status report on a plea by Jamia Coordination Committee member Safoora Zargar, who was arrested under the anti-terror law --UAPA -- seeking bail in a case related to communal violence in northeast Delhi during protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act in February.

Zargar, M Phil student of Jamia Millia Islamia University, is more than four months pregnant.

Justice Rajiv Shakdher issued notice to the police and asked it to file a status report on the bail plea.

The high court listed the matter for further hearing on June 22.

Zargar, who was arrested by the Special Cell of Delhi Police on April 10, has challenged the June 4 order of the trial court denying her bail in the case.

The trial court, in its order, had said “when you choose to play with embers, you cannot blame the wind to have carried the spark a bit too far and spread the fire.”

It had said that during the course of investigation a larger conspiracy was discernible and if there was prima evidence of conspiracy, acts and statements made by any one of the conspirators, it is admissible against all.

The court had said that even if there was no direct act of violence attributable to the accused (Zargar), she cannot shy away from her liability under the provisions of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA).

However, the trial court had asked the concerned jail superintendent to provide adequate medical aid and the assistance to Zargar.

The police had earlier claimed that Zargar allegedly blocked a road near Jaffrabad metro station during the anti-CAA protests and instigated people that led to the riots in the area.

It further claimed that she was allegedly part of the “premediated conspiracy” to incite communal riots in northeast Delhi in February.

Communal clashes had broken out in northeast Delhi on February 24 after violence between citizenship law supporters and protesters spiralled out of control leaving at least 53 people dead and scores injured.

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