India's retail inflation hits 8-month high of 3.18% on back of higher food prices

Agencies
July 13, 2019

New Delhi, Jul 13: India's macro-economic data presented a slightly grim picture as food prices pushed India's retail inflation higher in June, and lower manufacturing output slowed down the country's industrial production in May.

The two key economic macro-data points -- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for May and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June -- were released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday.

As per the data furnished by the National Statistical Office (NSO), higher food prices accelerated India's June retail inflation to 3.18 per cent from 3.05 per cent in May.

However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the CPI in June 2019 was lower than the corresponding period of last year when retail inflation stood at 4.92 per cent.

The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) inflated to 2.17 per cent during the month under review from an expansion of 1.83 per cent in May 2019.

Product-wise, the prices of milk-based items, egg, meat and fish increased in March YoY. In contrast, a deflation trend was witnessed in the cost of vegetables and pulses. 

Prices of milk-based products rose marginally by 0.68 per cent, while egg became dearer by 1.62 per cent and meat and fish prices recorded a rise of 9.01 per cent.

On a sub-category basis, vegetable prices increased on a YoY basis in June to 4.66 per cent. The category of "pulses and products" became expensive 5. 68 per cent and that of "sugar and confectionery" (-)0.09 per cent.

In terms of IIP, the country's factory output growth eased in May 2019 as it rose by 3.1 per cent from a revised growth of 4.32 per cent reported for April 2019. 

Even on a YoY basis, May's industrial production growth of 3.1 per cent was lower than the 3.8 per cent achieved during the corresponding month of the previous fiscal. 

"The cumulative growth for the April-May 2019 period over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 3.7 per cent," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in 'Quick Estimates of IIP.

Besides, the output rate of the manufacturing sector rose 2.5 per cent in May from a year-on-year (YoY) rise of 3.6 per cent. On a YoY level, mining production grew 3.2 per cent from a rise of 5.8 per cent and the sub-index of electricity generation was higher by 7.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent.

Among the six use-based classification groups, the output of primary goods, with the highest weightage of 34.04, grew by 2.5 per cent. The output of intermediate goods, which has the second highest weightage, inched up by 0.6 per cent. 

Similarly, output of consumer non-durables rose 7.7 per cent, however, consumer durables slipped (-)0.1 per cent. 

In addition, output of infrastructure or construction goods increased by 5 .5 per cent, but that of capital goods inched-up by 0.8 per cent. In terms of industries, 12 out of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have showed positive growth during the month under review as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

"The industry group 'Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, ex cept furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials' has shown the highest positive growth of 24.8 per cent followed by 15.9 per cen t in 'Manufacture of food products' and 9.4 per cent in 'Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products." 

"On the other hand, the industry group 'Manufacture of paper and paper pro ducts' has shown the highest negative growth of (-) 12.2 per cent followed b y (-) 9.9 per cent in 'Manufacture of furniture' and (-) 8.7 per cent in 'manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment'." 

On IIP, Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA said: "The sequential dip in industrial growth in May 2019 reflects the trend in core sector expansion, which offset the shallower drag from the contraction in auto production, as well as an improvement in growth of non oil merchandise exports." 

According to Madhavi Arora, Economist, Edelweiss Securities said: "The CPI inflation ticks up to 3.18 per cent but remains overall benign... The uptick in June was largely led by sequential uptick in food components, while sequential increase in core components moderated." 

"The food inflation seasonal uptrend will likely continue in the near term , albeit stay benign overall, partly reflecting structural change in food in flation dynamics." 

Devendra Pant, Chief Economist, India Ratings and Research, said: "CPI inflation is likely to follow its gradual increasing trend in the first half of this fiscal and likely to touch 4 per cent mark in third quarter (mainly due to base effect). 

"The August 2019 Monetary Policy growth inflation dynamics of Indian economy are evenly balanced," he said.

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News Network
April 23,2020

Washington, Apr 23: Air pollution over northern India has plummeted to a 20-year-low for this time of the year, according to satellite data published by US space agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
The US space agency's satellite sensors observed aerosol levels at a 20-year low post the countrywide lockdown, implemented to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

"We knew we would see changes in atmospheric composition in many places during the lockdown," said Pawan Gupta, a Universities Space Research Association (USRA) scientist at NASA''s Marshall Space Flight Center. "But I have never seen aerosol values so low in the Indo-Gangetic Plain at this time of year," added Mr Gupta.

Acting Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Alice G Wells tweeted, "These images from NASA were taken each spring starting in 2016 and show a 20-year low in airborne particle levels over India. When India and the world are ready to work and travel again, let's not forget that collaborative action can result in cleaner air."

The data published with maps show aerosol optical depth (AOD) in 2020 compared to the average for 2016-2019. Aerosol optical depth is a measure of how light is absorbed or reflected by airborne particles as it travels through the atmosphere.

If aerosols are concentrated near the surface, an optical depth of 1 or above indicates very hazy conditions. An optical depth, or thickness, of less than 0.1 over the entire atmospheric vertical column is considered "clean." The data were retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite.

In the first few days of the lockdown, it was difficult to observe a change in the pollution signature. "We saw an aerosol decrease in the first week of the shutdown, but that was due to a combination of rain and the lockdown," said Mr Gupta.

Around March 27, heavy rain poured over vast areas of northern India and helped clear the air of aerosols. Aerosol concentrations usually increase again after such heavy precipitation.

"After the rainfall, I was really impressed that aerosol levels did not go up and return to normal. We saw a gradual decrease and things have been staying at the level we might expect without anthropogenic emissions," Mr Gupta said.

On March 25, the Indian government placed its 1.3 billion citizens under a strict lockdown to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The countrywide mandate decreased activity at factories and severely reduced car, bus, truck and airplane traffic. Every year, aerosols from anthropogenic (human-made) sources contribute to unhealthy levels of air pollution in many Indian cities.

Aerosols are tiny solid and liquid particles suspended in the air that reduce visibility and can damage the human lungs and heart.

In southern India though, the story is a little hazier. Satellite data show aerosol levels have not yet decreased to the same extent. In fact, levels seem to be slightly higher than in the past four years. The reasons are unclear but could be related to recent weather patterns, agricultural fires, winds or other factors.

"This a model scientific experiment," Robert Levy, program leader for NASA's MODIS aerosol products, said about the lockdown and its effects on pollution.

"We have a unique opportunity to learn how the atmosphere reacts to sharp and sudden reductions in emissions from certain sectors. This can help us separate how natural and human sources of aerosols affect the atmosphere," Mr Levy added.

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News Network
June 13,2020

New Delhi, Jun 13: About 56 per cent of children were found to have no access to smartphones which have emerged as essential tools for online learning during the coronavirus-induced lockdown, according to a new study that surveyed 42,831 students at various school levels.

The study ''Scenario amidst COVID 19 - Onground Situations and Possible Solutions'' was conducted by child rights NGO Smile Foundation with an aim of analysing the access to technology.

The findings of the study showed that 43.99 per cent of surveyed children have access to smartphones and another 43.99 per cent of students have access to basic phones while 12.02 per cent do not have access to either smartphones or basic phones.

A total of 56.01 per cent children were found to have no access to smartphones, the study said.

"Concerning television, it was noted that while 68.99 per cent have access to TV, a major chunk of 31.01 per cent does not. Hence suggesting that using smartphone interventions for enhancing learning outcomes is not the only solution," it said.

At the primary level of education (class 1 to 5) 19,576 children were surveyed while at upper primary level (class 6 to 8) 12,277 children were surveyed. At secondary level of education (class 9 to 10) 5,537 children were surveyed and at higher secondary level (class 11 to 12) 3,216 children were surveyed.

The survey based on which the study was conducted used two approaches - over the telephone wherein the NGO reached out to the children whose database it already had -- students enrolled in various education centres of the NGO -- and second was through community mobilization wherein community workers went door to door to get answers.

The survey was conducted in 23 states, including Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, over a period of 12 days from April 16 to April 28.

The lockdown induced by the COVID-19 pandemic in March prompted schools and colleges to move to the virtual world for teaching and learning activities. However, many experts say the digital divide in the country may turn online classes into an operational nightmare.

As per official statistics, there are over 35 crore students in the country. However, it is not clear as to how many of them have access to digital devices and Internet.

Santanu Mishra, co-founder and executive trustee, Smile Foundation, said the findings clearly show that the digital divide is a real challenge, and multiple approaches need to be implemented to cater to all across the nation.

"As an exercise before we start any programme, we do a baseline study to understand the on-ground challenges so that our programmes can bring in real work and real change. With the onset of the pandemic, following indefinite school closures, it is more important than ever to understand the situation and how can we ensure that children are given quality education. Through this, we understand that customized modules need to be built in accordance with the channel of communication," he said.  

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Agencies
August 2,2020

New Delhi, Aug 2: The Centre has written to all states and Union Territories stating that smartphones and tablet devices should be allowed for hospitalised Covid-19 patients so that they can interact with family and friends through video conferencing, which would provide them psychological support.

Though mobile phones are allowed in hospital wards, the missive was issued following some representation from the kin of patients alleging otherwise.

Director-General of Health Services (DGHS) in the Health Ministry Dr Rajiv Garg in the letter to the principal secretaries of health and medical education of states and Union territories said appropriate protocols for disinfecting devices and allotting timeslots can be developed by the hospital concerned to facilitate contact between patients and their family.

He underlined that administrative and medical teams should be responsive to the psychological needs of patients admitted in Covid-19 wards and ICUs of various hospitals.

"Social connection can calm down patients and also reinforce the psychological support given by the treating team. Please instruct all concerned that they should allow smartphones and tablet devices in patient areas so that the patient can video conference with their family and friends," stated the letter issued on July 29.

"Though mobile phones are allowed in the wards to enable a patient stay in touch with his or her family, we received representations from the patient families from some states stating mobile phones are not being allowed by hospital administrations because of which they were not being able to stay in contact with the patient," said Dr Garg.

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