Jadeja takes 5 as India clinch series by innings and 53 runs

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Melbourne, Jul 21: Cricket Australia's chief executive Nick Hockley has said that the Indian players and staff will most likely be asked to face two weeks of quarantine before the four-match Test series.

This scenario will bring the Adelaide Oval and its newly constructed hotel firmly into view as the sort of biosecure bubble, ESPNCricinfo reported.

India and Australia are slated to face each other in a four-match Test series, which is to begin from December 4 at Brisbane.

"The two-week quarantine is pretty well-defined. What we are working on is making sure that even within that quarantine environment, the players have got the absolute best training facilities, so that their preparation for the matches is as optimal as it can possibly be," ESPNCricinfo quoted Hockey as saying.

"Certainly the fact that the Adelaide Oval has a hotel. It does provide a facility not dissimilar to Old Trafford or Ageas Bowl where the hotels are integrated into the venue," he added.

Hockley also said that an exacting standard of biosecurity and testing would be applied before the series against India as the coronavirus cases are spiking in the subcontinent.

"It's widely known and it's unlikely that international travel restrictions would have lifted by the time that India will be due to come into the country. Clearly there will be testing regimes. We will be able to test people before that they get on to the plane and it is the nature of the situation of making sure we have the quarantine arrangements in line with government and health authority protocols," Hockley said.

"The key thing for the players is that there's regular testing and that we appropriately quarantine them when they come in and all of those plans are currently in development," he added.

The International Cricket Council (ICC) on Monday announced the postponement of the T20 World Cup 2020 slated to be held in Australia from October 18-November 15 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Following the announcement, the BCCI is likely to go ahead with the Indian Premier League (IPL) in the October-November window. However, it is known where the T20 tournament will be played as cases continue to rise in India.
"I think the BCCI has made no secrets that they are considering what that means for the IPL. For us, it's about getting a bit of an understanding and certainty around what that means. Clearly, in a normal course, some of our best players are obviously top picks for those IPL teams," Hockley said.

"It's a bit premature to speculate on that. We need to understand what the plans are if any and once we understand that we will make decisions accordingly," he added.

New Delhi, May 23: Sports Minister Kiren Rijiju on Saturday said India will not host any international event in immediate future and fans will have to learn to live with the new normal of sporting activities happening behind closed doors in the post-COVID-19 world.

Rijiju's statement gain greater significance in the context of the suspended IPL, which the BCCI wants to host in October-November in case of the ICC T20 World Cup in Australia is postponed.

"We have been working for quite some time now to resume sporting activities but before that, we have to think about practice and training. We are not going to have a tournament kind of situation immediately," Rijiju was quoted as saying by India Today.

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"We have to learn to live with the situation where sporting events will have to be carried forward without spectators in stadiums and sports venues," he added.

Talking specifically about the 13th edition of IPL, which has been put on hold for an indefinite period due to the pandemic, Rijiju said it is the government's prerogative to take a call on conducting any tournament in the country.

"In India, the government has to take a call and it will take a call depending on the situation. We cannot put health at risk just because we want to have a sporting event.

"Our focus is fighting Covid-19 and at the same time, we will have to work a mechanism to get back to normalcy. It is difficult to confirm dates but I am sure we will have some kind of sporting events this year," he said.

Rijiju's statement came close on the heels of Sports Authority of India (SAI) laying out a detailed Standard Operating Procedure for the resumption of sporting activities across the country in a phased manner.

"In the background, their (athletes) fitness and everything has been tracked. They are in touch with the coaches, the fitness experts, the high-performance directors. We are monitoring each and every athlete who are of the higher stature, who played for India and higher clubs," he said.

"Now it has been laid out. SAI has prepared a detailed SOP. These are prepared by experts from different fields. This SOP has already been issued to all sports federations and other sports bodies including govt stakeholders. So, based on this SOP training will start."

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 23

The Sports Minister, however, reiterated that resumption of sporting activities will entirely depend on guidelines of respective states and local administrations.

"We have been clearly advising that health and safety are top priorities. Besides that we have to keep in mind two other things, one is the guidelines issued by the Home Ministry, second, is the guidelines issued by the administrations of the respective localities or states. So, these are to be taken into account," he said.

"But we have clearly stated that sports complexes and stadiums are open, other than that there should not be any activities till the lockdown is there or we come up with a renewed kind of advice."

Asked about the prospect of the Tokyo Games that were scheduled for this year but were postponed to 2021 due to the pandemic, the Sports Minister said he is hopeful of the quadrennial event taking place on the revised dates.

"Olympics is still far away and we have full confidence in the Japanese government and IOC and every country will support that the conduct of Tokyo 2021 will not be postponed. There are too many stakes in Olympics, so it is difficult to even foresee that the Olympics can be postponed," he said.

"As far as India's preparation goes, we are at the best stage of our preparation of any Olympics so far in history. This is going to be India's biggest contingent so far and have medal-winning prospects. But I am not saying we are so prepared to finish in the top 10 or 5 but our long term target is that India will be in the top 10 in 2028.