JD(S)-Congress coalition hopes hinge on swaying four dissidents

Bengaluru, Jul 17: Top leaders of the JD(S)-Congress coalition are riding on the slim hope that at least four of their disgruntled MLAs who have quit, would have a change a heart and withdraw their resignations ahead of Thursday’s trust vote called by chief minister HD Kumaraswamy. A change of mind by a minimum four rebels is vital for the survival of the coalition if the Supreme Court’s verdict, set to be delivered on Wednesday, goes against it.

A total of 16 MLAs have resigned from the assembly, but the coalition is especially banking on CLP leader Siddaramaiah’s loyalists — ST Somashekar, Byrathi Basavaraj and N Muniratna — to change their mind and return to Bengaluru from Mumbai where they are currently holed up.

“Even three MLAs will do since we are confident senior Congress leader R Ramalinga Reddy will vote in our favour,” said a senior Congress leader.

However, in the same breath, the leader admitted that dissident legislators have reached a point of no return. It also appears Congress and JD(S) leaders have given up attempts to lure rebels back to the fold.

For the BJP to effectively defeat the trust vote on Thursday, it will need the strength of the assembly to drop to 208 from the present 224. Presuming the 15 MLAs currently sequestered in a luxury hotel in Mumbai — including the two independents, who have not resigned from the assembly, but have sworn allegiance to the BJP — abstain from voting, the strength of the House would fall to 209. All the BJP then needs if for one of the three other disgruntled MLAs — Ramalinga Reddy, Anand Singh and R Roshan Baig — who are in Bengaluru, to abstain to defeat the trust vote.

Reports had suggested senior leaders including chief minister HD Kumaraswamy and Congress leaders Mallikarjuna Kharge, DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah would fly to Mumbai to persuade disgruntled MLAs to withdraw their resignations. But there was little activity on Tuesday, except for Siddaranaiah visiting Congress legislator B Nagendra to enquire about his health. Nagendra, who was admitted to a private hospital for an undisclosed ailment, has, for some time, been identified with the rebel camp led by Ramesh Jarkiholi.

With barely a day left for the trust vote, the writing appears on the wall for the Kumaraswamy-led government. Political analyst Sandeep Shastri was of the view that Congress and JD(S) leaders have completely lost control of the situation.

“The SC’s verdict will not make much of a difference to the political situation in Karnataka,” Shastri said. “At the end of the day, if the MLAs are serious about resigning, whether disqualified or not, the speaker is bound to accept their resignations and that places the government in a minority.”