Kashmir may not be major topic in Modi-Xi summit: China

Agencies
September 18, 2019

Beijing, Sept 18: China on Tuesday said the Kashmir issue may not be a “major topic” of discussion during the planned 2nd informal summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, notwithstanding the high voltage campaign by its close ally Pakistan over India revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir.

Tension between India and Pakistan escalated after New Delhi revoked Jammu and Kashmir's special status on August 5. Reacting to India's move on Kashmir, Pakistan downgraded diplomatic ties with New Delhi and expelled the Indian High Commissioner.

A senior Chinese official said it should be left to Modi and Xi on the issues they would like to discuss.

"As for Kashmir will be on the agenda, I'm not sure because this is kind of informal summit and leaders' meeting I think better we need to give the leaders much time to discuss whatever they would like to discuss," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told a media briefing here.

"For this kind of informal summit, I think it is better to leave the leaders much time to discuss whatever they would like to discuss," she said.

Hua said Kashmir may not be a major topic of discuss between the two leaders.

"I think for those things like Kashmir, I don’t think it will be a major topic occupying the talks, that is my understanding,” she said.

"But for the leaders, they will be free to talk about whatever they like,” Hua said, responding to a question.

China, the all-weather ally of Pakistan, already tried to take the Kashmir issue to the UN Security Council last month. But a closed-door meeting of the UNSC, in a snub to both Beijing and Islamabad, ended without any outcome or statement.

On China's stand on the resolution of the Kashmir issue, Hua reiterated that “we always take Kashmir as a problem between India and Pakistan.

"And we know there was the UN resolutions regarding Kashmir, so we hope this issue could be resolved through friendly and peaceful negotiations between India and Pakistan according to the relevant UN Charter and UN resolutions,” she said.

China hopes that “since both India and Pakistan, a good neighbour of China, of course, we hope our great neighbours could be in peaceful terms with each other, she said.

"And both India and Pakistan can try their best, maybe our best efforts to resolve the issue peacefully through negotiations,” she said.

On President Xi’s visit to India next month, Hua said both sides are keeping very close contact with each other but declined to reveal the date and venue.

"I'm not in a position to announce the details yet. But I think you will know, very soon. But we are looking forward to the visit. Both China and India are both great countries,” she said.

A lot of significance is attached to the 2nd informal summit between Modi and Xi that was expected to take place next month much on the same lines of the first such meeting at Wuhan last year, which normalised relations between the two countries after the 73-day standoff at Doklam.

On the India-China border question, Hua said both sides at all levels have very fruitful, and smooth channels for communications.

"China always keeps its words, we always kept our words, and we never intended to do anything that could harm the mutual trust between China and India. And we hope to see the same good willingness from the Indian side,” she said.

"Both sides can work together to safeguard to maintain to make sure the border, the border areas be kept in peace and stability, so that we can increase the mutual trust and stay focused on those kind of things, such as even broaden our cooperation,” she said.

India and China have held 21 rounds of Special Representatives talks so far to resolve the boundary dispute. The India-China border dispute covers 3,488-km-long Line of Actual Control. China claims Arunachal Pradesh as part of southern Tibet while India contests it.

On China’s One Belt and One Road (OBOR), she said there is a sense of reluctance on India’s part.

India has protested to China over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as it is being laid through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, (POK). CPEC is the flagship project of the OBOR.

“This is up to Indian side to decide when and how they could join one belt one road that as you can see, one belt one road has been enjoying more and more support understanding from all of the countries around the world,” Hua said.

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Agencies
May 27,2020

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

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Agencies
July 14,2020

Mumbai, Jul 14: Bhima Koregaon case accused Varavara Rao was admitted to JJ Hospital in Mumbai on Monday night.

Rao who is in Taloja proson was rushed to the hospital following complaint of dizziness.

Rao was arrested in November 2018 along with five others, for alleged links with Naxals and for inciting the violence.

On January 1, 2018, the violence at Bhima Koregaon village in Pune district left one dead and several others injured including 10 policemen.

Violence erupted after some people, reportedly with saffron flags, pelted stones at cars heading towards the village for the commemoration of 200 years of Bhima-Koregaon war on New Year's Day.

The police had filed 58 cases against 162 people.

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Agencies
February 10,2020

New Delhi, Feb 10: After an hour-long standoff between the security forces and the students on Monday, the police resorted to a lathi-charge on the protesters near Holy Family hospital which is within walking distance of Jamia Millia Islamia.

A scuffle ensued when police confronted the protesters who tried to push forward towards Parliament. The lathi-charge was made to push back the protesters.

In the melee that ensued, many from both sides fainted.

Some security forces personnel resorted to the lathi-charge while others pushed back the protesters when they threw water pouches at the security forces and abused them.

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