New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.
The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.
"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.
He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.
About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.
"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.
Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.
"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."
The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.
Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.
He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.
"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.
Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.
"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.
"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.
Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.
He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.
"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.
Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.
"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.
"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.
If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.
"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.
"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.
Comments
Islam is the religion since the creation of human beings on earth. Later people misleaded and started to woship idols and others.
But allah s.w.t. sent more than 1 lac messangers to guide and warn the people when they mislead..
Our prophet S.A.W. is the last messamger to th entire mankind.
Study and analyse definitely you will find the truth and true religion..
worship allah the creator, May allah give you hidayah.
Not only majority of Muslims, it could be all Muslims. Remember they were not Hindus. They were Indians.
We respect everyone including all Hindus. Hinduism can be called as a cultural group rather than religion.
Hinduism is identity of Hindus and now changed in the name of religion. This is their faith.
Your true analyzer.
Remember the relgion is set of commands how to lead the life to be successful in now and after the death.
Therefore it should be by the real God. Because it should not clash and contradict the SCIENCE.
If there is any such religion that can be compared to the SCIENCE, then that is the true religion.
It has come from the real GOD, so there can not be more than 1religion.
Therefore only 1 is the true religion and others are man made culture.
Yes but Vedas says Worship one God and there is no image of God (Na tasya pratima Asti) Our grandfathers understood this and started to worship one God ALLAH. instead of worshiping the created things ...
We request U to worship the CREATOR not his CREATION..,
If Your intention is honest ... ALLAH will Guide you.
He does not what he talks. Unwarranted things.
Admit fairly instead of dragging and talking nonsense.
Mob Lynching was there, and now it exceeded the height because of BJP in power in UP and in centre.
They dont have fear of the law where they are given safe heavens.
What is the fuss if all Indians were Hindus. It could be true. It has irrelecance with the subject.
Is it a license to commit whatever they like to do.
God give them wisdom and save from the clutches of these illiterates.
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