New Delhi, Jun 26: With looming uncertainty and no likelihood of an early economic recovery in sight, the bull run in gold prices is here to stay. Analysts expect domestic futures to touch ₹ 52,000 per 10 grams in the next few months, till Diwali.
Experts also predict that with the current trend, gold may reach historic levels around ₹ 65,000 per 10 grams in two years time.
Futures of the yellow metal have touched new highs in India off late. On Wednesday, the August contract of gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched an all-time high of Rs 48,589 per 10 grams.
It has, however corrected since and is currently trading at ₹ 48,057 on the MCX, higher by ₹ 116 or 0.24 per cent from its previous close.
Market experts are of the view that both domestic and international gold prices are yet not done breaching records and will touch new highs in days to come.
The resurgence in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection across the globe has added to the uncertainty and fears.
Speaking to media persons, Anuj Gupta, DVP for Commodities and Currencies Research at Angel Broking, noted: "In short term we are expecting it to reach ₹ 48,800-49,000 and for long term, we are expecting ₹ 51,000-Rs 52,000 till Diwali."
On the prices in the international market, he said that it may reach around $1,790 per ounce in the near term from the current levels of $1,762 and the long term, it is likely to be around $1,820-1,850 per ounce.
Gupta noted that with International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest downward revision of economic outlook, both global and of India, and the rising number of cases and high demand by gold exchange traded funds (ETF) have led to this record breaking rise in gold prices.
Covid-19 battered India's economy is projected to contract by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, according to the IMF and the global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the IMF's April forecast.
Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services, said that gold's safe haven appeal will remain on the higher side as there is little hope of a quick global economic recovery amid rising virus cases across the world.
"Increased geopolitical instability and an under-performing dollar also lift the metal's sentiments," he added.
According to Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currencies at Angel Broking, said that with the global output to contract and the economies in a deeper recession than most anticipate, gold as an asset class is a safe bet for investors across the globe.
"Although, the physical demand has declined drastically due to the restrictions and lockdowns, the activity of global central banks and their net purchases of gold signal that uncertainty will continue for most of 2020," he said.
He was also of the view that in the international market price of the metal may move towards $1,850 per ounce and in the domestic market it is likely to move higher towards Rs 50,000 per 10 grams.
"The investment demand as seen in the net additions of ETF holdings also signals that gold will shine for a much longer time even if the pandemic is under control. Till then, keep buying gold, if not in physical form, but in digital form," Mallya added.
Industry insiders like Aditya Pethe, Director, WHP Jewellers said: "I basically feel that the current trend for the gold is bullish and for the coming next 2 years, it is likely to move upwards. No one can predict the exact price as currently the trend is on rise but it might change after 6 months. In general for the coming 6 months to one year, the gold prices are likely to cross $2,000 which comes to roughly Rs 55,000. For a temporary moment it may reduce, basically fluctuate as well but overall trend of gold is going to be bullish."
On his part, Ishu Datwani, Founder, Anmol Jewellers said: "Yes - it's very likely that the gold price could easily go up to Rs 60,000-Rs 65,000 in the next two years. There is also a possibility of it going up even more."
"A lot of banks have been buying gold and there is also a possibility that the Indian rupee will depreciate against the dollar. This and geopolitical reasons will cause bullishness in gold."
Comments
The actual FACT is during Independence and Partition of India & Pakistan, British as usual left a piece of land so that there will be no peace between India & Pakistan (in-case if they join Hands they will become Super Power of the World). The only solution for Peace to Prevail is leave Kashmir to their people. Let them decide which part of Kashmir they want to stay, make partition, I know this won't be done as for political GAINS, Let the families of Politician start living in Kashmir and feel how it is to lose a loved ones. Just by blaming Pundits and Muslims wont work. Killing innocent people by either side is just to brainwash the Public and to keep the rivalry alive on the basis of religion and country.
Malala , you have yourself experienced how inhuman and ruthlessly atrocious Pakistan Government is. As they manipulated you and your family’s circumstances to harass, they are exploiting and manipulating India’s freeness and all-inclusiveness to keep Kashmir and its denizens in constant turmoil to get pleasure from other’s pain. They are doing same to Baluchistanis since partition and the Kashmiries of Pakistan held area are extremely unhappy and are in totters due to this policy of Pakistan.
Its Pakistan's fault not Indians....Pakistan should stop sending terrorists to India ...which is not happening at all....that is why Kashmiris suffering around there...
Malala should advise Pakistan government first not to involve with our domestic problems....
It is good for Kashmiris if they stay with India as far as their security and economic developments are concerned...
True that Malala has suffered beyond our imagination and came out of it bravely. But that doesn't make her an expert in everything.
Dear Malala, Can you please talk about the inhumanity and heartbreak in Pakistan-occupied Balochistan?
Malala Request you to please stay peaceful and stay happy and not say things that don't fit into ur vocab pls.
I didn't really used to like her but now my respect for her has gone up a lot.
Do you live in delusional world..what should paramilitary forces do if someone is breaking law and order of any country
Lets hope this time her voice will be heard as she has won Noble Prize for PEACE. Lets wish that India will keep Human Life above her EGO and will look Kashmir with HUMAN eye before there is no solution left
Dear Malala, Surely New Delhi government and Kashmiri people need to work together. Your concern is respected.
India in committing a genocide in Kashmir by killing innocent people SC must take notice of this.
As much as I admire Malala, I hate to see her get into Politics and Indo-Pak disputes. There are enough noises being made, or have been made, to no end.
please advise the kids to stop pelting stones and focus on studies to snatch the opportunities from rapidly growing Indian economy.
Thank you Malala for raising your voice in our support.
Since you are an influential opinion maker, I hope the world listen to you and stop the perpetrator from committing these atrocities against us.
Malalaji, Welcome to politics.
Dear Malala we respect you. But it is not government of India or Pakistan decide the future of Kashmir. There are some third parties who really want disturbance or conflict in the valley.
Trolls across the border always loved everything Malala spoke about. I hope they do the same now and accept stark reality!
Thank You Malala, for your kind words and care about Kashmiris
She is a teenage girl with little understanding of the dynamics of terrorism inspite of being a victim of it herself. The valley has been infected by the terror virus with religion which drove away the natural inhabitants of Pandits from Kashmir being hounded from mosque sermons. Many got murdered and not so lucky to escape. No one thought of their rights, now a generation has spent the life as refugee. Neither India nor local Kashmir government or the world body cares to it. However Pakistan terror export looks working well, but it is always the civilian who pays the price.
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