Mangaluru: Basheer buried amidst tears and prayers; family appeals for peace

Mangaluru, Apr 19: District-in-charge Minister Kota Srinivas Poojary said that Rs 2000 each has been deposited in the bank accounts of 6,122 construction workers, who are registered with the labour department in the Dakshina Kannada district. The amount will be deposited in the accounts of other registered construction workers at the earliest.

The state government had announced Rs 2000 to construction labourers who are registered and have lost their livelihood due to the on-going nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus. The curbs, which were imposed on March 24, have been extended till May 3. "The labourers were reeling under hardship after construction activities came to a halt," said the Minister.

Supply food

Local bodies should make arrangements to supply food for stranded labourers, destitutes and beggars in all the ULBs in Dakshina Kannada district, Poojary said. 

"No one should starve during the lockdown period. All the ULBs should identify destitutes, migrant labourers in their jurisdiction and arrange food for them. In case of necessity, the help of NGOs can also be taken," he added
The minister announced that Asha workers and health workers would collect information on people's health by visiting the houses in the district and submit a report within 10 days.

Bengaluru, June 12: The Karnataka government has withdrawn its notification that allowed factories to extend working hours up to 10 hours a day and 60 hours a week, with immediate effect.

The extension of work hours was from eight hours a day and 48 hours a week. On May 22, the government had exempted all the factories registered under the Factories Act, from the provisions of Section 51 (weekly hours) and Section 54 (daily hours), till August 21 subject to certain conditions.

"Whereas, having examined the provisions further, the Government of Karnataka now intends to withdraw the said notification," the state government in a fresh notification dated June 11 said.

It said, "Therefore, in exercise of the powers conferred under Section 5 of Factories Act, 1948 (Act No. 63 of 1948), the Government of Karnataka hereby withdraws the Notification dated 22-05-2020 with immediate effect."

According to the Karnataka Employers' Association, a petition was filed in the High Cour challenging the May 22 notification as "illegal, arbitrary and in violation" of Section 5 of the Factories Act which permits exemption from any of the provisions of the Factories Act only in case of Public Emergencies'.

During the course of hearing on June 11 an observation was made by the High Court, that it may have to quash the notification unless the government clarifies as to what is the 'Public Emergency' involved to enhance the working hours by exempting some provisions of the Factories Act, it said.

The court further observed that the government should make a submission on June 12 in this behalf. However, the government withdrew the notification on June 11 itself. Recently states like Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh too had retracted after permitting extending work hours.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.