Modi govt may meet same fate as that of Indira's: Yashwant

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

New Delhi, May 25: Realtors' apex body CREDAI has written a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking immediate relief measures to tide over the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The association, which has around 15,000 developer members, has sought one-time debt restructuring, lower interest rate on home loans and tax sops to boost liquidity and demand in the sector.

In an open letter to the prime minister, the Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI) said, "In this distressful situation arising out of the COVID-19 calamity, we in the real estate sector seek immediate relief for our survival."

Stating that the sector contributes substantially to the country's GDP and has backward and forward linkages with almost 250 industries, CREDAI said, "Our survival, therefore, is not just desirable, it is rather crucial for the economy."

Liquidity crunch, stagnant demand and cartelization of raw materials are major impediments for the industry to kickstart, it added.

CREDAI made seven recommendations to revive the sector and sought immediate intervention from the prime minister.

Pointing out that the situation is "much worse" than global financial crisis in 2008, CREDAI said "a one-time restructuring scheme as was permitted by RBI in 2008 may be quickly instituted by all lending institutions."

Since real estate was already reeling under a cyclical downturn before COVID-19, debt restructuring needs to be allowed for all accounts which were standard as on December 31, 2019, it added.

CREDAI demanded that all banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs) should be directed to provide additional credit equal to 20 per cent of the existing real estate project related advances with no additional security and without the classification of project as NPA.

The penal interest charged by banks and financial institutions should be suspended for a period of one year or until such time as it takes for the pandemic to abate.

To revive housing demand, CREDAI suggested that "government should reduce the maximum rate of interest on new home loans to 5 per cent by subsidizing the interest component of EMIs for next five years."

The limit of principal deduction on housing loan under Section 80C should be increased to 2.5 lakh.

Interest deduction under Section 24 on housing loan for homebuyers may be increased to Rs 10 lakh, it said.

There should be no capital gains for residential properties held for a period longer than one year.

CREDAI also demanded that the subvention scheme be allowed again by National Housing Bank (NHB) and the Reserve Bank.

Under the scheme, builders used to pay EMIs on behalf of homebuyers during construction of projects.

"The economic uncertainty and job insecurity at the moment would not allow purchase of residential property at this time. A scheme whereby a homebuyer would need to pay only margin money with no EMI for 24 months will address this insecurity," the letter said.

The association pointed out that prices of cement and steel have been increased during the lockdown period, and asked for crackdown on cartelisation by manufacturers.

On the GST front, CREDAI said that the current regime of GST provides a rate of 1 per cent  for affordable housing.

"The limit of Rs 45 lakh serves as a criterion of affordability for the purpose of GST. On all other housing, GST is applied at the rate of 5 per cent without input tax credit. It has been felt that the criterion of Rs 45 lakh is too low an index of affordability anywhere across the country, and especially so in the metros," the letter said.

It will serve as an inducement to buyers in the metros if the benefit of GST at the rate of 1 per cent is extended to units costing up to Rs 75 lakh, the association said.

CREDAI pointed out that the flat rate of 5 per cent GST for under construction residential housing is causing cost build up and is acting as a deterrent for sale of under construction projects since there is no GST on completed units.

It suggested that GST rate of 1 per cent and 5 per cent, without input tax credit, should continue.

"However, an option of GST @12 per cent for normal housing/ 8 per cent for affordable housing (with 1/3rd deduction for land i.e. effective GST rate of 8 per cent for normal housing and effective GST rate of 5 per cent for affordable housing) with input tax credit (ITC) benefits in line with the scheme applicable for the works contracts for government may be revived and made applicable to the real estate," the letter said.

Lastly, CREDAI demanded that a Rs 25,000 crore stress fund for completing stalled housing projects should be deployed at the earliest.

"We shall be grateful for your much-needed intervention for the above mentioned measures required to revive the real estate sector," CREDAI said in the letter to the PM.

New Delhi, Apr 24: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has termed the government decision to freeze Dearness Allowance of Central government employees for a year as "insensitive and inhuman."

The former Congress President in a tweet said: "Lakhs and crores are being spent on the Bullet Train and New Delhi's Central Vista which should have been suspended, but the government has deducted DA of Central government employees and pensioners... It is insensitive and inhuman."

"The tragic part is that by deducting this amount from January 1, 2020 up to 30th June, 2021 for a period of 1.5 years, the government of India proceeds to deduct almost Rs 38 thousand crore from the income of these middle class government employees and pensioners, who rely completely on the pay and pensions that they receive," said Randeep Surjewala, chief spokesperson of Congress.

There are about 50 lakh such serving government employees and about 62 lakh pensioners.

"Even more tragic and objectionable is the fact that the government of India has not even spared our armed forces. The government has deducted Rs 11 thousand crore of the 15 lakh serving armed forces personnel and nearly 26 lakh military pensioners. What is their fault? They are serving the nation in times of all types of crises," said Surjewala.

The Congress alleged that the government did not spare the savings scheme.

Instead of curbing the wasteful expenditure, the government has been constantly hitting at the income of government employees and the middle class, it added.