Modi govt’s Budget 2020 falls short as growth worries persist

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

New Delhi, Jun 16: Congress president Sonia Gandhi on Tuesday demanded a rollback of hike in fuel prices, saying the government's decision to increase the prices of petrol and diesel during the coronavirus crisis is "wholly insensitive" and "ill-advised".

The government is doing nothing short of "profiteering off its people" when they are down and out, she said in a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Petrol and diesel prices were hiked for the 10th day in a row on Tuesday.

"I am deeply distressed that in these exceedingly difficult times since the beginning of March, the government has taken the wholly insensitive decision to increase petrol and diesel prices on no less than ten separate occasions," Gandhi said in her letter.

She accused the government of earning an additional revenue of nearly Rs 2.6 lakh crore through these "ill-advised" hikes in excise duty and increase in prices of petrol and diesel.

"I urge you to roll back these increases and pass on the benefit of low oil prices directly to the citizens of this country.

"If you wish for them to be 'self-reliant' then do not place financial fetters on their ability to move forward," the Congress president said.

Gandhi also urged the government to use its resources to put money directly into the hands of those in need in these times of severe hardship.

Jun 13: The Congress on Saturday accused the BJP-led government of burdening the common man with high taxes on petrol and diesel and earning Rs 2.5 lakh crore since March 5.

Congress leader Kapil Sibal said while international crude oil prices have fallen and are at the lowest level in 15 years, yet petrol and diesel prices are skyrocketing and common people continue to suffer under the Modi dispensation.

He said instead of passing the benefit of lower crude prices to consumers, petrol and diesel prices were hiked for the seventh straight day on June 13.

"The government has earned as much as Rs 44,000 crore in the last six days due to hike in petrol, diesel prices. Since March 5, the government has earned as much as Rs 2.5 lakh crore by way of increasing petrol, diesel prices.

"If the government had even the slightest feelings for the common man, instead of benefitting the companies and the government, the prime minister would have helped the common man with reduced fuel prices," Sibal said at an online press conference.

According to a report by Care Ratings, he said the hike effectively meant that the Central government is collecting around 270 per cent taxes on the base price of petrol and 256 per cent in case of diesel.

The former union minister said petrol was selling at Rs 71.41 in Delhi on May 1, 2014, when international crude oil prices were USD 106.85, while on June 12, 2020, the price of petrol was Rs 75.16 when the crude oil was at USD 38.

He said central excise and VAT cumulatively account for 69 per cent of tax on fuel in India which is higher than anywhere else in the world. He said the tax of fuel in the US was 19 per cent, Japan 47 per cent, the UK 62 per cent, France 63 per cent and Germany 65 per cent.