Modi’s ‘Stay at Home’ Call May Deepen India’s Economic Slowdown

News Network
March 21, 2020

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

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Agencies
July 30,2020

Mumbai, Jul 30: Counterfeiting incidents have increased 24 per cent in the country in 2019 over the previous year, creating an over Rs 1 lakh crore hole in the economy, according to a report.

The report also said counterfeiters are having a free run due to the pandemic-driven disruptions to organised supply chains and the resultant spike in consumer demand.

According to the report by ASPA, a self-regulated industry body of anti-counterfeiting and traceability solutions providers, counterfeiting has risen steadily in the last few years, and exploiting the pandemic as a cover for their activities.

Between February and April 2020, over 150 incidents of counterfeiting cases were reported, mostly about fake PPE kits, sanitisers and masks taking advantage of the high demand for these products, it noted.

"There was a 24 per cent increase in counterfeiting in 2019 over 2018, leading to the loss of more than Rs 1 lakh crore to the overall economy," said Nakul Pasricha, president of Authentication Solution Providers Association.

The association works with global authorities like the International Hologram Manufacturers Association, Counterfeit Intelligence Bureau of the Interpol, and domestic industry lobbies like Ficci, he said.

Counterfeiting is a universal issue and is 3.3 per cent of global trade, according to the OECD data, impacting social and economic development across the world.

The report lists the currency, FMCG, alcohol, pharma, documents, agriculture, infrastructure, automotive, tobacco, lifestyle and apparel, as the 10 sectors impacted most by counterfeiting.

Among these, currency, alcohol and FMCG continue to be the top three sectors with the highest counterfeiting in the last two years. The FMCG sector is most vulnerable, as counterfeit incidents rose 63 per cent between 2018 (79) and 2019 when the reported cases jumped to 129.

Within the states, the fakers have a free run in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bengal, Punjab, Jharkhand, Delhi, Gujarat, and Uttarakhand, calling for urgent actions to frame anti-counterfeiting policy measures.

According to the report, UP continues to be on top followed by Bihar, Rajasthan, and together these three states represent almost 45 per cent of all counterfeiting reported in the last two years.

What is more alarming is that counterfeiting is not limited to high-end luxury items today, as common everyday items as fake cumin seeds, mustard cooking oil, ghee, hair oils, soaps, baby care vaccines and medicines are aplenty in the markets.

"There is an urgent need for building and nurturing authentication ecosystems in the country with the active involvement and active participation of all stakeholders," said Pasricha.

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News Network
March 3,2020

Mumbai, Mar 3: The country will turn "peaceful" if Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "bhakts" follow him in quitting the social media, the NCP said on Tuesday, taking a dig at the PM over his tweet that was thinking of giving up his social media accounts.

NCP chief spokesperson and Maharashtra minister Nawab Malik also said that Modi's decision will be "in the interest of the country".

His comments came a day after Modi said he is contemplating giving up social media presence.

"This Sunday, thinking of giving up my social media accounts on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram & YouTube. Will keep you all posted," the prime minister said on the micro-blogging site.

Taking a swipe at the prime minister, Malik in a tweet said, "Yesterday, Modi ji gave hint of giving up the social media from Sunday. Some leaders are also talking about giving up (the social media). The country will turn peaceful if all the bhakts (followers) give it up."

"Modi ji's decision will be in the interest of the country. We welcome it, Modi ji take decision," Malik tweeted with the hash tag "ModiQuitsSocialMedia".

Earlier, the Congress took a swipe at the prime minister, with Rahul Gandhi tweeting "Give up hatred, not social media accounts" after tagging Modi's post.

Within minutes of Modi's tweet on Monday, scores of netizens urged him not to quit the various social media platforms as 'No Sir' trended on Twitter.

The prime minister is one of the most-followed world leaders on social media. He has 53.3 million followers on Twitter, 44 million on Facebook and 35.2 millionon Instagram.

The Twitter handle of Prime Minister's Office has 32 million followers.

In September 2019, PM Modi was the third most followed world leader on the microblogging site, behind only US President Donald Trump and his predecessor Barack Obama.

The Prime Minister was the first Indian to cross the 50-million followers mark on Twitter.

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News Network
January 29,2020

Mumbai, Jan 29: Unfazed by his suspension from flying on Tuesday, stand-up comedian Kunal Kamra on Wednesday claimed that he once again approached television journalist Arnab Goswami, who he said was his co-passenger on a flight from Lucknow, for an "honest discussion" but was turned away.

Kamra tweeted in the morning that "Arnab Goswami was again travelling in his flight while returning from Lucknow". "I again asked him politely if he wants to have a honest discussion he with his verbal arrogant hand jester he asked me to move away & I did that (sic)," he tweeted.

The comedian was suspended from flying by IndiGo and Air India on Tuesday after he allegedly heckled Goswami aboard a Mumbai-Lucknow plane and posted a video clip on his Twitter handle.

While IndiGo suspended Kamra from flying with it for a period of six months, Air India banned him until further notice.

In a statement released on Twitter after he posted the video, Kamra said he did "exactly what Republic TV journalists do to people in their private/public spaces". Kamra stated he had not done anything criminal by allegedly heckling Goswami.

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