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New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

Muzaffarpur, Mar 18: Prisoners in the central jail here are working overtime to produce facemasks to prevent the deadly COVID-19 striking. In addition to providing protection to fellow inmates and prison staff, the produce will be shared with nine district and sub jails falling under Muzaffarpur Central Prison as well, Deputy Superintendent of the jail Sunil Kumar Maurya said. From supplications at places of worship to hectic activities at the biggest hospital, this north Bihar district is witnessing invocation of all powers, human and otherwise, to prevent novel coronavirus hitting them.

Although nobody has so far tested positive for the dreaded virus in Bihar, where the state government has imposed a semi-lockdown as a preventive measure, Muzaffarpur which hit the headlines last year for losing close to 200 children to an outbreak of brain fever seems determined not to fall prey to yet another virulent affliction.

On making of facemasks by about 50 prisoners, the Deputy Superintendent of the jail said, "We have had a tradition of producing fabric at the Muzaffarpur Central Jail. An idea was floated why not use the skills acquired for producing masks which are in great demand but in short supply.

The local administration seems impressed with the endeavour of the social outcasts to rise to a global challenge.

"It is a welcome step. Despite all precautions, we never know who is going to catch the infection at which place. The efforts by prisoners to protect themselves and the staff manning their premises is laudable. "Full assistance will be provided to Central Jail authorities in supply of the masks to other prisons," Sub Divisional Magistrate (East) Kundan Kumar said.

A conservative town inhabited by a deeply religious citizenry, Muzaffarpur is also witnessing prayer congregations at temples and mosques in keeping with the tradition here of people of all faiths coming together when faced with a major challenge.

The Garib Nath temple, a renowned shrine devoted to Lord Shiva which attracts devotees from far and wide, is witness to the power of faith trumping the biggest fears as the footfall seems to have increased since the outbreak.

The temples mahant Vinay Pathak says, "faith can move mountains. People come here in search of strength to face a crisis which has caused worldwide scare. We advise the visitors to conduct regular 'havans' at their houses just like we have been performing here. "The smoke emitted by burning of purified offerings cleanses the air and, who knows, could be an antidote as well," Pathak added.

Chanting of 'Mahamrityunjay mantra', which the faith believe to be potent enough to dispel illness and untimely death, is taking place round the clock at the shrine in addition to 'havans', the mahant said.

Just a few yards away stands the Chhata Chowk mosque where large number of devotees appear in skull-caps to offer namaz.

"It is a pandemic threatening to engulf the entire world and dua (prayers) are needed as much as dawa (medicines). May God, who is one, listen to the common wish expressed by humanity in myriad ways," says Imtiaz Ahmed, a devout local resident.

Meanwhile, the health authorities are busy with their own efforts, not leaving prevention and cure to divine intervention.

District Medical Officer Shailesh Kumar Singh says a total of 42 people here who have come from abroad, have been tested but their results have been negative.

"Nonetheless, a five-bed special ward has been set up at the Sadar Hospital, manned by medical staff armed with a special kit comprising medicines and other logistics required for primary care of those with suspected symptoms," he said.

The SKMCH referral hospital, which bore the brunt of last years brain fever epidemic accounting for over 120 deaths is fully geared up to meet the latest challenge.

SKMCH superintendent Sunil Shahi says "we have a 30- ward insulation ward ready. Samples of patients with suspected symptoms are being routinely sent to RMRI, Patna. We appeal to all to remain alert, but avoid panic."