New method to predict solar storms developed

Agencies
December 9, 2018

Kolkata, Dec 9: A team of scientists have found a way to predict the Sun's activity over the coming decades, which could help better prepare against solar storms that may cripple satellite communications and Earth's electric power grids.

In a study published in the journal Nature Communications, the team also showed that there is little possibility of a Sun-induced climate cooling in the coming year.

Researchers from Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Kolkata and Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) Pune put forward a prediction for the upcoming sunspot cycle which reveals the expected conditions in space over the next decade. 

"This research has direct relevance for protection of India's space-based technological assets and the global climate," said Sourav Pal, Director of IISER Kolkata.

Using a novel technique devised by Professor Dibyendu Nandi from IISER Kolkata and his PhD student Prantika Bhowmik, the team predicts that the next sunspot cycle will start about a year after the end of the current cycle and peak in 2024.

They also predict that space environmental conditions over the next decade would be similar or slightly harsher compared to the last decade. 

"The space weather is governed by a constant stream of charged particles -- electrons and protons -- flowing out from the Sun and permeating the solar system," said Nandi, who is also a research associate at IUCAA.

Occasionally, the Sun releases spurts of charged winds that travel towards the Earth at astonishing speeds, he said.

These result in space storms that can cripple satellites, trip electric power grids and lead to large-scale telecommunication breakdowns.

"It has been known for some time that the cycle of sunspots control all these aspects of solar activity and determines its influence on our space environment and climate," said Bhowmik. 

Astrophysicists have been attempting for decades to devise methods to predict the future occurrence of sunspots.

Sunspots can measure up to ten times the size of Earth, with magnetic fields ten thousand times stronger.

These spots have been observed through telescopes since the times of Galileo. 

According to the researchers, the current sunspot cycle dubbed as solar cycle 24 is just ending and it has been one of the weakest cycles in a century.

In fact, over the last several decades, successive sunspot cycles have significantly weakened in strength.

This association has led to scientists to speculate a significantly weak sunspot cycle 25 or an impending disappearance of sunspots for many decades would alleviate global warming and bring down the Earth's temperature.

The research, which was supported by the Indian Ministry of Human Resource Development as well as NASA, found no evidence of an impending disappearance of sunspot cycles.

The team concluded that speculations of an imminent Sun induced cooling of global climate is very unlikely.

"The behaviour of the magnetic field, and the particles emitted from the Sun has a profound effect on the Earth's climate and living conditions of the Earth's inhabitants, as well as various other activities that involve long-range communication and satellite technology," said Somak Raychaudhury, Director of IUCAA.

"Bhowmik and Nandy's models show considerable predictive power, and it looks like we will now be able to predict the fluctuations of solar activity much more reliably," he said.

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Agencies
February 29,2020

Ahmedabad, Feb 29: The presence of two feral pigeons onboard a GoAir flight at the airport in Ahmedabad in Gujarat created a flutter among the amused passengers, even though the avian surprise did not lead to any untoward incident or delay in the flight.

The incident took place on Friday when the passengers were boarding the Ahmedabad-Jaipur flight.

"Two pigeons had found their way inside the flight G8 702 while the passengers were boarding," an airline statement said on Saturday.

"The crew immediately shooed away the birds. The flight took off at its scheduled time at 5 p.m.," it added.

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Agencies
May 17,2020

As millions of people get hooked to online dating platforms, their proliferation has led to online romance scams becoming a modern form of fraud that have spread in several societies along with the development of social media like Facebook Dating, warn researchers.

For example, extra-marital dating app Gleeden has crossed 10 lakh users in India in COVID-19 times while dating apps like Tinder and Bumble have gained immense popularity.

According to researchers from University of Siena and Scotte University Hospital led by Dr Andrea Pozza, via a fictitious Internet profile, the scammer develops a romantic relationship with the victim for 6-8 months, building a deep emotional bond to extort economic resources in a manipulative dynamic.

"There are two notable features: on the one hand, the double trauma of losing money and a relationship, on the other, the victim's shame upon discovery of the scam, an aspect that might lead to underestimation of the number of cases," the authors wrote in a paper published in the journal Clinical Practice & Epidemiology in Mental Health.

Around 1,400 dating sites/chats have been created over the last decade in North America alone. In the UK, 23 per cent of Internet users have met someone online with whom they had a romantic relationship for a certain period and even 6 per cent of married couples met through the web.

"The online dating industry has given rise to new forms of pathologies and crime, said the authors.

The results showed that 63 per cent of social media users and 3 per cent of the general population reported having been a victim at least once.

Women, middle-aged people, and individuals with higher tendencies to anxiety, romantic idealization of affective relations, impulsiveness and susceptibility to relational addiction are at higher risk of being victims of the scam.

Online romance scams are, in other words, relationships constructed through websites for the purpose of deceiving unsuspecting victims in order to extort money from them.

The scammer always acts empathetically and attempts to create the impression in the victim that the two are perfectly synced in their shared view of life.

"The declarations of the scammer become increasingly affectionate and according to some authors, a declaration of love is made within two weeks from initial contact," the study elaborated.

After this hookup phase, the scammer starts talking about the possibility of actually meeting up, which will be postponed several times due to apparently urgent problems or desperate situations such as accidents, deaths, surgeries or sudden hospitalizations for which the unwitting victim will be manipulated into sending money to cover the momentary emergency.

Using the strategy of "testing-the-water", the scammer asks the victim for small gifts, usually to ensure the continuance of the relationship, such as a webcam, which, if successful, leads to increasingly expensive gifts up to large sums of money.

When the money arrives from the victim, the scammer proposes a new encounter.

The request for money can also be made to cover the travel costs involved in the illusory meeting. In this phase, the victim may start having second thoughts or showing doubt about the intentions of the partner and gradually decide to break off the relationship.

"In other cases, the fraudulent relationship continues or even reinforces itself as the victim, under the influence of ambivalent emotions of ardor and fear of abandonment and deception, denies or rationalizes doubts to manage their feelings," said the study.

In some cases, the scammer may ask the victim to send intimate body photos that will be used as a sort of implicit blackmail to further bind the victim to the scammer.

Once the scam is discovered, the emotional reaction of the victim may go through various phases: feelings of shock, anger or shame, the perception of having been emotionally violated (a kind of emotional rape), loss of trust in people, a sensation of disgust towards oneself or the perpetrator of the crime and a feeling of mourning.

"Understanding the psychological characteristics of victims and scammers will allow at-risk personality profiles to be identified and prevention strategies to be developed," the authors suggested.

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Agencies
June 19,2020

Denser places, assumed by many to be more conducive to the spread of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, are not linked to higher infection rates, say researchers.

The study, led by Johns Hopkins University, published in the Journal of the American Planning Association, also found that dense areas were associated with lower COVID-19 death rates.

"These findings suggest that urban planners should continue to practice and advocate for compact places rather than sprawling ones, due to the myriad well-established benefits of the former, including health benefits," says study lead author Shima Hamidi from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the US.

For their analysis, the researchers examined SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and COVID-19 death rates in 913 metropolitan counties in the US.

When other factors such as race and education were taken into account, the authors found that county density was not significantly associated with county infection rate.

The findings also showed that denser counties, as compared to more sprawling ones, tended to have lower death rates--possibly because they enjoyed a higher level of development including better health care systems.

On the other hand, the research found that higher coronavirus infection and COVID-19 mortality rates in counties are more related to the larger context of metropolitan size in which counties are located.

Large metropolitan areas with a higher number of counties tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreaks.

According to the researchers, recent polls suggest that many US citizens now consider an exodus from big cities likely, possibly due to the belief that more density equals more infection risk.

Some government officials have posited that urban density is linked to the transmissibility of the virus.

"The fact that density is unrelated to confirmed virus infection rates and inversely related to confirmed COVID-19 death rates is important, unexpected, and profound," said Hamidi.

"It counters a narrative that, absent data and analysis, would challenge the foundation of modern cities and could lead to a population shift from urban centres to suburban and exurban areas," Hamidi added.

The analysis found that after controlling for factors such as metropolitan size, education, race, and age, doubling the activity density was associated with an 11.3 per cent lower death rate.

The authors said that this is possibly due to faster and more widespread adoption of social distancing practices and better quality of health care in areas of denser population.

The researchers concluded that a higher county population, a higher proportion of people age 60 and up, a lower proportion of college-educated people, and a higher proportion of African Americans were all associated with a greater infection rate and mortality rate.

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