New method to predict solar storms developed

Agencies
December 9, 2018

Kolkata, Dec 9: A team of scientists have found a way to predict the Sun's activity over the coming decades, which could help better prepare against solar storms that may cripple satellite communications and Earth's electric power grids.

In a study published in the journal Nature Communications, the team also showed that there is little possibility of a Sun-induced climate cooling in the coming year.

Researchers from Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Kolkata and Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) Pune put forward a prediction for the upcoming sunspot cycle which reveals the expected conditions in space over the next decade. 

"This research has direct relevance for protection of India's space-based technological assets and the global climate," said Sourav Pal, Director of IISER Kolkata.

Using a novel technique devised by Professor Dibyendu Nandi from IISER Kolkata and his PhD student Prantika Bhowmik, the team predicts that the next sunspot cycle will start about a year after the end of the current cycle and peak in 2024.

They also predict that space environmental conditions over the next decade would be similar or slightly harsher compared to the last decade. 

"The space weather is governed by a constant stream of charged particles -- electrons and protons -- flowing out from the Sun and permeating the solar system," said Nandi, who is also a research associate at IUCAA.

Occasionally, the Sun releases spurts of charged winds that travel towards the Earth at astonishing speeds, he said.

These result in space storms that can cripple satellites, trip electric power grids and lead to large-scale telecommunication breakdowns.

"It has been known for some time that the cycle of sunspots control all these aspects of solar activity and determines its influence on our space environment and climate," said Bhowmik. 

Astrophysicists have been attempting for decades to devise methods to predict the future occurrence of sunspots.

Sunspots can measure up to ten times the size of Earth, with magnetic fields ten thousand times stronger.

These spots have been observed through telescopes since the times of Galileo. 

According to the researchers, the current sunspot cycle dubbed as solar cycle 24 is just ending and it has been one of the weakest cycles in a century.

In fact, over the last several decades, successive sunspot cycles have significantly weakened in strength.

This association has led to scientists to speculate a significantly weak sunspot cycle 25 or an impending disappearance of sunspots for many decades would alleviate global warming and bring down the Earth's temperature.

The research, which was supported by the Indian Ministry of Human Resource Development as well as NASA, found no evidence of an impending disappearance of sunspot cycles.

The team concluded that speculations of an imminent Sun induced cooling of global climate is very unlikely.

"The behaviour of the magnetic field, and the particles emitted from the Sun has a profound effect on the Earth's climate and living conditions of the Earth's inhabitants, as well as various other activities that involve long-range communication and satellite technology," said Somak Raychaudhury, Director of IUCAA.

"Bhowmik and Nandy's models show considerable predictive power, and it looks like we will now be able to predict the fluctuations of solar activity much more reliably," he said.

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News Network
April 28,2020

Los Angeles, Apr 28: People who experience loss of smell as one of the COVID-19 symptoms are likely to have a mild to moderate clinical course of the disease, according to a study which may help health care providers determine which patients require hospitalisation.

The findings, published in the journal International Forum of Allergy & Rhinology, follows an earlier study that validated the loss of smell and taste as indicators of infection with the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2.

According to the scientists from the University of California (UC) San Diego Health in the US, patients who reported loss of smell were 10 times less likely to be hospitalised for COVID-19 compared to those without the symptom.

"One of the immediate challenges for health care providers is to determine how to best treat persons infected by the novel coronavirus," said Carol Yan, first author of the current study and rhinologist from the UC San Diego Health.

"If they display no or mild symptoms, can they return home to self-quarantine or will they likely require hospitalisation? These are crucial questions for hospitals trying to efficiently and effectively allocate finite medical resources," Yan said.

The findings, according to the researchers, suggest that loss of smell may be predictive of a milder clinical course of COVID-19.

"What's notable in the new findings is that it appears that loss of smell may be a predictor that a SARS-CoV-2 infection will not be as severe, and less likely to require hospitalisation," Yan said.

"If an infected person loses that sense, it seems more likely they will experience milder symptoms, barring other underlying risk factors," she added.

Risk factors for COVID-19 previously reported by other studies include age, and underlying medical conditions, such as chronic lung disease, serious heart conditions, diabetes, and obesity.

In the current study, the scientists made a retrospective analysis between March 3 and April 8 including 169 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 at UC San Diego Health.

They assessed olfactory and gustatory data for 128 of the 169 patients, 26 of whom required hospitalisation.

According to the researchers, patients who were hospitalised for COVID-19 treatment were significantly less likely to report anosmia or loss of smell -- 26.9 per cent compared to 66.7 per cent for COVID-19-infected persons treated as outpatients.

Similar percentages were found for loss of taste, known as dysgeusia, they said.

"Patients who reported loss of smell were 10 times less likely to be admitted for COVID-19 compared to those without loss of smell," said study co-author Adam S. DeConde.

"Moreover, anosmia was not associated with any other measures typically related to the decision to admit, suggesting that it's truly an independent factor and may serve as a marker for milder manifestations of Covid-19," DeConde said.

The researchers suspect that the findings hint at some of the physiological characteristics of the infection.

"The site and dosage of the initial viral burden, along with the effectiveness of the host immune response, are all potentially important variables in determining the spread of the virus within a person and, ultimately, the clinical course of the infection," DeConde said.

If the SARS-CoV-2 virus initially concentrates in the nose and upper airway, where it impacts olfactory function, that may result in an infection that is less severe and sudden in onset, decreasing the risk of overwhelming the host immune response, respiratory failure, and hospitalisation, the scientists added.

"This is a hypothesis, but it's also similar to the concept underlying live vaccinations," DeConde explained.

"At low dosage and at a distant site of inoculation, the host can generate an immune response without severe infection," he added.

Loss of smell, according to the study, might also indicate a robust immune response which has been localised to the nasal passages, limiting effects elsewhere in the body.

Citing the limitations of the study, the scientists said they relied upon self-reporting of anosmia from participants, which posed a greater chance of recall bias among patients once they had been diagnosed with COVID-19.

They added that patients with more severe respiratory disease requiring hospitalisation may not be as likely to recognise or recall the loss of smell.

So the researchers said more expansive studies are needed for validating the results.

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Agencies
July 2,2020

Leiden, Jul 2: Astronomers have discovered a luminous galaxy caught in the act of reionizing its surrounding gas only 800 million years after the Big Bang.

The research, led by Romain Meyer, PhD student at UCL in London, UK, has been presented at the virtual annual meeting of the European Astronomical Society (EAS).

Studying the first galaxies that formed 13 billion years ago is essential to understanding our cosmic origins. One of the current hot topics in extragalactic astronomy is 'cosmic reionization,' the process in which the intergalactic gas was ionized (atoms stripped of their electrons).

Cosmic reionization is similar to an unsolved murder: We have clear evidence for it, but who did it, how and when? We now have strong evidence that hydrogen reionization was completed about 13 billion years ago, in the first billion years of the universe, with bubbles of ionized gas slowly growing and overlapping.

The objects capable of creating such ionized hydrogen bubbles have however remained mysterious until now: the discovery of a luminous galaxy in which 60-100 percent of ionizing photons escape, is likely responsible for ionizing its local bubble. This suggests the case is closer to being solved.

The two main suspects for cosmic reionization are usually 1) a population of numerous faint galaxies leaking ~10 percent of their energetic photons, and 2) an 'oligarchy' of luminous galaxies with a much larger percentage (>50 percent) of photons escaping each galaxy.

In either case, these first galaxies were very different from those today: galaxies in the local universe are very inefficient leakers, with only <2-3 percent of ionizing photons escaping their host. To understand which galaxies governed cosmic reionization, astronomers must measure the so-called escape fractions of galaxies in the reionization era.

The detection of light from excited hydrogen atoms (the so-called Lyman-alpha line) can be used to infer the fraction of escaping photons. On the one hand, such detections are rare because reionization-era galaxies are surrounded by neutral gas which absorbs that signature hydrogen emission.

On the other hand, if this hydrogen signal is detected it represents a 'smoking gun' for a large ionized bubble, meaning we have caught a galaxy reionizing its surroundings. The size of the bubble and the galaxy's luminosity determines whether it is solely responsible for creating this ionized bubble or if unseen accomplices are necessary.

The discovery of a luminous galaxy 800 million years after the Big Bang supports the scenario where an 'oligarchy' of bright leakers emits most of the ionizing photons.

"It is the first time we can point to an object responsible for creating an ionized bubble, without the need for a contribution from unseen galaxies.

Additional observations with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope will enable us to study further what is likely one of the best suspects for the unsolved case of cosmic reionization," said Meyer.

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Agencies
April 17,2020

New Delhi, Apr 17: The Indian Railways turned 167 years old on Thursday and for the first time ever, its trains did not carry any passengers on its birthday and instead stood idle in the yards waiting for the nationwide lockdown to end.

On this day 167 years ago, the wheels of the first passenger train in the country from Mumbai to Thane started rolling.

In 1974, Indians experienced life without trains for the first time. In May 1974 during the strike of the railways that lasted for around three weeks, drivers, station masters, guards, track staff and many others went on 'chakka jam' demanding fixed working hours for train drivers and an across-the-board pay hike.

"I can recall those times vividly. I remember that our leader George Fernandes had almost secured a deal with the then railway minister, but it fell through when it was taken to the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi," All India Railwaymens Federation General Secretary Shiv Gopal Mishra, who was an apprentice in the railways at that time, told PTI.

"Fernandes was arrested in Lucknow. The workers went through a lot at that time. But those were days that angry workers had refused to give in and took great risks to get their demands met," he said.

However, just like this time, four decades ago too freight trains carrying essential supplies were run and the unions agreed to let some passenger trains run on the trunk routes like the Kalka Mail from Howrah to Delhi.

"Never ever in its history, there has been such a long interruption of services. Not during the World Wars, not during the 1974 railway strike, or any other national calamity or natural disaster," a railway spokesperson said.

The first Indian Railways passenger train was flagged off on April 16, 1853, from Mumbai to nearby Thane.

On Thursday, the Railway Ministry wished the railways a happy birthday on Twitter - "Today, 167 years ago with the zeal of 'never to stop' the wheels of the first passenger train from Mumbai to Thane started rolling. For the first time, passenger services are stopped for your safety. Stay indoors & make the nation victorious," it said.

Railway has suspended all passenger services since March 25 till May 3 due to the coronavirus outbreak. Around 15,523 trains run by the railways have been affected including 9,000 passenger trains and 3,000 mail express services which are run daily. It caters to over 20 million passengers every day.

According to the Union health ministry, the death toll due to coronavirus rose to 414 and the number of cases to 12,380 in the country on Thursday.

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