March-quarter GDP growth at 5.3 pct, weakest in 9 years

May 31, 2012

gdp-reuters

New Delhi, May 31: India's annual economic growth slumped in the January-March quarter to a nine-year low of 5.3 percent as the manufacturing sector contracted and a fall in the rupee to a record low suggests the economy remains under pressure in the current quarter.

The growth rate was much lower than expected and was even below the lowest forecast in a Reuters poll that had produced a median of 6.1 percent from predictions ranging between 5.5 percent and 7.3 percent.

"The data highlights the unusual degree of weakening of the country's economy, likely driven by poor investment and widening trade gap," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

"The data also poses a dilemma for policymakers, as they have no fiscal room to stimulate growth, while monetary easing scope is very narrow, at least for now, due to rebounding and high inflation."

The growth rate in the final quarter of India's fiscal year was the lowest since 3.6 percent in the January-March quarter of 2003, Thomson Reuters data shows.

The data showed that the manufacturing sector shrank 0.3 percent in the quarter compared with a year earlier. The farm sector grew 1.7 percent.

Gross domestic product rose 6.5 percent in the fiscal year to the end of March 2012, the lowest growth rate since 4.0 percent in 2002/03 and a sharp slowdown from the previous year's 8.5 percent.

The impact of the euro zone debt crisis, a lack of economic reforms and high interest rates dragged on India's growth throughout last year.

Before Thursday's data, private economists had cut forecasts for Asia's third-largest economy to between 6 percent and 6.5 percent for the fiscal year to March 2013. The government forecasts close to 7.5 percent.

The yield on India's benchmark 10-year government bonds are down 11 basis points so far on Thursday.

The BSE Sensex extended its declines after the data to 1.3 percent on the day.

Anubhuti Sahay, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Mumbai said the data was "shocking".

"A rate cut is a given now," Sahay said.

The rupee fell on Thursday to a record low beyond 56.50 per dollar. Its slide of 14 percent from its 2012 high adds to inflation concerns in the country.

The rupee has fallen in the face of global risk aversion over the euro zone debt crisis. But investors have raised a number of India-specific red flags as well, including a swelling current account, high government spending on subsidies such as oil and a rash of unpredictable regulations and tax as the coalition struggles to push through economic reforms.

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News Network
March 6,2020

New Delhi, Mar 6: Shares of YES Bank and State Bank of India came under huge selling pressure on Friday as developments unfolded regarding SBI picking stake in the private lender. Shares of the lender hit record low of Rs 5.55, plunging 85 per cent, and were trading below its previous low of Rs 8.16 hit on March 9, 2009.

SBI, on the other hand, slumped 11 per cent to Rs 257.35 on the BSE. The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was trading with a cut of over 3 per cent at 37,251.37 level.

In the past three months, share price of the private lender has plunged 41 per cent, while the state-owned lender has slipped 14 per cent. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has dipped 5.6 per cent till Thursday.

On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India superseded the board of troubled private sector lender YES Bank and imposed a 30-day moratorium on it “in the absence of a credible revival plan” amid a “serious deterioration” in its financial health.

During the moratorium, which came into effect from 6 pm on Thursday, YES Bank will not be allowed to grant or renew any loans, and “incur any liability”, except for payment towards employees’ salaries, rent, taxes and legal expenses, among others.

This is the first time that a bank of this size will be put under a moratorium by the RBI.

“The financial position of YES Bank had undergone a steady decline “largely due to inability of the bank to raise capital to address potential loan losses and resultant downgrades, triggering invocation of bond covenants by investors, and withdrawal of deposits,” RBI said in a statement.

“After the moratorium, the next step will be to infuse to money and keep the bank afloat. So from shareholders’ point of view, the future is certainly hazy as the capital requirement is huge. The good part, however, is that the RBI has stepped in and depositors don't have to worry,” says Siddharth Purohit, a research analyst at SMC Securities.

Meanwhile, analysts at Nomura believe that placing the Bank under moratorium implies that equity value in the bank would be negligible, and that the chances of private capital participating in future capital raising plan are near zero.

"Any resolution for Yes Bank is more proposed from the perspective of deposit holders and systemic stability, and not from the perspective of Yes Bank equity investors or even perpetual bond holders," they wrote in a note dated March 6.

In another development, SBI’s Board Thursday gave in-principle approval to consider an “investment opportunity” in YES Bank, even as it said “no decision had yet been taken to pick up stake in the bank”.

According to a  report, highly-placed sources indicated a rescue plan involving SBI and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) was being discussed and an announcement in this regard might be made soon.

“While the finer details of the deal are being worked out, it is anticipated that both SBI and LIC together will take a 51 per cent stake in the bank, with a one-year lock-in period,” the report said.

Most analysts believe it is a positive step for the Indian financial sector as the government has tried to avoid a repeat of IL&FS-like crisis.

“The move is a positive step for the financial sector as a whole. By this, the government has tried to avoid a repeat of IL&FS-like crisis and has saved the depositors,” said AK Prabhakar, Head of Research at IDBI Capital. While we know that YES Bank has a huge pile of bad loans, SBI is the only bank that has the capacity to absorb it, he added.

However, the valuation at which YES bank would be taken over remains a cause of concern.

Global brokerage firm JP Morgan Thursday cut its target price for YES Bank on Thursday to Rs 1 per share, taking into account the potential fall in the lender’s net worth due to stressed assets.

“We believe forced bailout investors will likely want the bank to be acquired at near-zero value to account for risks associated with the stress book and likely loss of deposits. We think the bank will need to be recapitalised at nominal equity value and could test dilution of additional tier 1 (AT1) capital. We remain underweight and cut our target price to Rs 1 as we believe net worth is largely impaired,” JP Morgan said in a note.

Global brokerage firm Nomura estimates a need of Rs 25,000-44,000 crore and adjusted for Rs 7,400 crore of current coverage, if the current stress of Rs 65,000-70,000 crore faces 70 per cent loss given default (LGD).

"It implies Rs 18,000-37,000 crore needed for provisioning against the current net worth of Rs 25,700 crore Also, to run as going concern, the bank would require over Rs 20,000 crore of CET-1 capital as well," the note said.

YES Bank has registered slippages of Rs 12,000 crore so far in FY20, while it has placed Rs 30,000 crore of loan assets under the watch list. Its deposits stood at Rs 2.09 trillion on September 30, 2019, while its advances totalled Rs 2.24 trillion. The bank has delayed publishing its December quarter results by a month to March 14.

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News Network
May 25,2020

New Delhi, May 25: The pending class 10 and 12 board exams will be conducted by CBSE at 15,000 centres across the country instead of 3,000 centres planned earlier, Union HRD Minister Ramesh Pokhriyal 'Nishank' announced on Monday.

The exams, which were postponed due to a nationwide lockdown imposed on March 25 to contain the spread of COVID-19, will now be held from July 1 to 15.

"The class 10, 12 exams will now be conducted at over 15,000 exam centres across India. Earlier, CBSE was slated to hold exams at only 3,000 centres," Nishank said.

The decision has been taken to ensure social distancing at exam centres and minimise travel for students.

The HRD ministry has already announced that students will appear for exams at schools in which they are enrolled rather than external examination centres.

According to home ministry guidelines, there will be no exam centre in COVID-19 containment zones and states will be responsible for making transport arrangements for students to reach their respective centres.

Usually, board examinations are held at designated test centres to ensure minimum bias from schools and enable independent external invigilators to monitor the examination process.

While Class 12 exams will be conducted across the country, the Class 10 exams are only pending in North East Delhi, where they could not be held due to the law-and-order situation in the wake of protests against the amended citizenship act.

The CBSE class 10 and 12 board exam evaluation is being carried out from home.

The HRD ministry had earmarked 3,000 evaluation centres from where answer sheets would be distributed to teachers at their homes for evaluation and then collected.

Universities and schools across the country have been closed since March 16 when the Centre announced a countrywide classroom shutdown as one of the measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak.

Later, a 21-day nationwide lockdown was announced on March 24, which came into effect the next day. It has now been extended till May 31. The board was not able to conduct class 10 and 12 exams on eight examination days due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Due to the law-and-order situation in North East Delhi, CBSE was not able to conduct exams on four examination days, while a very small number of students from and around this district were not able to appear in exams on six days.

The board had last month announced that it will only conduct pending exams in 29 subjects which are crucial for promotion and admission to higher educational institutions.

The modalities of assessment for the subjects for which exams are not being conducted will be announced soon by the board.

The schedule has been decided in order to ensure that the board exams are completed before competitive examinations such as engineering entrance JEE-Mains, which is scheduled from July 18-23 and medical entrance exam NEET that will be held on July 26.

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News Network
May 27,2020

May 27: At a time when India is struggling with the deadly coronavirus, huge swarms of locusts in many states has bought nightmares to the farmers.

Experts warn of extensive crop losses if authorities fail to curb the fast-spreading swarms by June when monsoon rains spur rice, cane, corn, cotton, and soybean sowing.

Locusts entered India after traveling from Africa through Yemen, Iran and Pakistan.

After massive devastation in Pakistan, t swarms of locusts entered India through Rajasthan and Gujarat. The number is so large that the farmers and authorities are feeling helpless in tackling the threat.

The situation has become more alarming as the locusts is spreading across the country at an extremely fast rate. After badly affecting the crops in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, the swarm of locust have now entered Uttar Pradesh.

In Rajasthan alone, the locust attack has damaged 5 lakh hectares of crop and nearly 17 districts of Madhya Pradesh have also seen their terror. Earlier from May 2019 to February 2020, too, the locust swarms entered India several times.

Speaking on the current situation, Dr Ram Pravesh, District Agricultural Officer, Agra, Uttar Pradesh said the Department of Agriculture is working with farmers in dealing with the situation. He urged the farmers to inform their Mandal Krishi Adhikari if they require any help.

India's largest-ever locust attack was in 1993 when more than three lakh hectares of cultivated land were completely destroyed.

Earlier in 2020, farmers salvaged their wheat and oilseed crops from a previous locust scourge.

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