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Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 14: The Kerala government on Monday requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to arrange special flights to the Gulf to bring back non resident Keralites stranded there due to the lockdown.

In a letter to Modi, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said many Keralites who had gone on visit visas and in search of employment were finding it difficult to continue there without jobs.

"While we appreciate the constraints faced in allowing international travel as the threat of COVID-19 has not yet receded, it is requested that special consideration to their needs be given and at an earliest opportune time, the Government of India consider arranging special flights to bring these people back," Vijayan said in the letter.

All International health protocols can be followed while extending this facility, he said and assured that testing and quarantine needs of Keralites who are returning would be undertaken by the state government. During the video conferencing the Prime Minister had with Chief Ministers on April 11, this matter had been broght to Modi's notice, Vijayan said.

Thiruvananthapuram, May 25: About 100 people, including a Magistrate and some police personnel, have been asked to go into quarantine after an accused, who was produced before a lower court here following his arrest, later testedpositive, officials said on Monday. The accused, who was arrested along with two others in connection with a case relating to illicit liquor transportation two days ago, had been shifted to thePoojapura central jail after he was remanded to judicial custody.

With his sample testing positive on Sunday, theman has been sent to a designated COVID-19 hospital. The Nedumangad court magistrate, before whom he was produced, 34 police personnel, including a circle inspector, who were on duty at the Venjaramoodu police station when the accused was broughtafter his arrest, some employees of a government hospital where his swab sample was taken and 12 officials of thePoojapura central jail have gone into quarantine, police sources said.

. Meanwhile, Malayalam film actor Suraj Venjaramoodu and Vamanapuram MLA D K Murali (CPI) are under self-imposed quarantineas they had attended a function in which the circle inspector had taken part.

Two days ago, a car in which illicit liqour was being transported had hit a policeman and sped away, but people managed to stop the vehicle and the three accused, who were in an inebriated state, were arrested, sources said.