India, US closer than ever: Nirupama Rao

New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

Ahmedabad, Jan 12: Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday unveiled over 5.5 lakh postcards written by Ahmedabad residents to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, thanking him for the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

The postcards were stacked on the dais as Shah addressed a gathering of BJP workers who formed letters `C A A’ in front of him.

The state BJP claimed that the party’s “largest awareness campaign” in support of the CAA had found a place in Limca Book of Records and World Record of India.

“It is not just words but a letter of thanks written from the heart. Our public outreach programme is a reply to the lies being spread against the CAA,” Shah said addressing BJP workers from his former Assembly constituency Naranpura.

The BJP had promised to enact the CAA in its manifesto, he said, asking why the Congress did not oppose it then.

Targeting Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, Shah said, “Congress has a government in Rajasthan. The Congress party in that state had promised that Hindus and Sikhs from Pakistan would be given citizenship.

“Why do you oppose it when we fulfill the promise made by you?” the Union home minister asked.

“In 2006 and 2009, Ashok Gehlot wrote a letter for the same. We covered Hindus, Sikhs, Parsis, Christians, all of them under the Act, you had only mentioned Hindus and Sikhs,” Shah claimed.

Saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, by bringing in the CAA, granted “human rights to lakhs of people”, he asked why opposition was against it.

He challenged “Rahul Baba” (Congress leader Rahul Gandhi), Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal to show if any provision of the CAA took away the citizenship of Indian Muslims.

“There is no such provision. Lakhs and crores of people have come to India from Pakistan, Bangladesh to save their religion, their self-respect, to save themselves. Where else will they go?” he asked.

“From the first prime minister of the country Jawaharlal Nehru to the first home minister, first president of the country, and Mahatma Gandhi himself had said that whoever comes to India from Pakistan will be granted citizenship. Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains coming from Pakistan have nowhere else to go,” he said.