India confirms drought as El Nino looms

August 3, 2012
rain

New Delhi, August 3: Monsoon rains will not be enough to save the country from its first drought in three years, the weather office said on Thursday as it forecast that the El Nino weather pattern should reduce rains again in the second half of the June to September season.

India, one of the world's largest food producers and consumers with a population of 1.2 billion, last suffered a drought in 2009, which forced it to import sugar, pushing global prices higher.

This time around, global grain prices are soaring as the United States wilts in its own drought - the worst in the country for half a century.

Monsoon rains are considered deficient - a drought in layman's terms - if they fall below 90 percent of a 50-year average.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said rains over the entire June to September season were now expected to be less than 90 percent of long-term averages. This is the first time it has forecast deficient rains at this point in the season.

Between June 1 and August 1, rainfall was about 19 percent below average, close to the 23 percent shortfall in the 2009 season.

Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar is touring the worst-affected states and ministers will meet again to discuss the situation when he returns to Delhi.

Poor monsoon rains have already pushed up food prices and food minister K V Thomas has said that the government is watching volatility in some commodity futures.

Some analysts do not see prices rising further. Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Mumbai brokerage Commtrendz Research, said: "Most of the prices of agricultural commodities have already reacted to this deficient monsoon. Agri prices are not going to go up much from current levels; prices will take a breather right now."

The monsoon is vital for the 55 percent or so of farmlands that do not have irrigation. The four-month season accounts for 75 percent of the country's annual rainfall and half of that is usually delivered in June and July.

Gold, silver sales to drop

Any major shortfall in monsoon rains can hit rural incomes and reduce demand for gold and silver in India, one of the world's top consumers of the precious metals.

"Scrap will flood the market and gold imports could drop by 50 percent," said Prithviraj Kothari, president of Bombay Bullion Association.

The IMD had at first forecast a normal monsoon, with rains at 96 percent of averages.

"We expect normal rains in August, but they could be about 5-6 percent below average in September due to the possibility of El Nino, which has not influenced the monsoon so far," D.S. Pai, lead forecaster of the IMD, said.

"We expect the effect of El Nino in September and October, and not before," Pai said over the phone from the western city of Pune.

Rains had already improved in the second half of the key planting month of July, allowing planting of some crops to catch up with last year's levels. There was heavier rainfall in soybean areas of central India, cane areas of Uttar Pradesh state and the rice belt of eastern India.

However, rains continued to be below average in the interior south and western areas that grow pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton.

Farmers have produced bumper grain harvests in recent years, providing the government with huge stockpiles of rice and wheat, which should buffer against any shortages.

But the country is a major importer of pulses and edible oils, so any shortages could trigger increased imports. The government has suggested that it might ask state trading companies to tender for pulses purchases.


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News Network
July 16,2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: India's pharmaceutical industry will be able to produce Covid-19 vaccines not just for the country but also for the entire world, according to Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates.

A lot of "very important things have been done" in India and its pharma industry is doing work "to help make the coronavirus vaccine building on other great capacities that they have used for other diseases", said the Co-Chair and Trustee of Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Speaking in a documentary -- Covid-19: India's War Against The Virus -- to be premiered on Discovery Plus this (Thursday) evening, Gates said India also faces a huge challenge due to the health crisis because of its gigantic size and urban centres with a lot of population density.

Commenting on the strength of India's pharma industry, he said, "India has a lot of capacity there -- with the drug and vaccine companies that are huge suppliers to the entire world. You know, more vaccines are made in India than anywhere-- starting with Serum Institute, that's the largest."

He further said, "But (there are) also Bio E, Bharat (Biotech), many others. They are doing work to help make the coronavirus vaccine, building on other great capacities that they have used for other diseases."

Stating that India joined Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which is a group working on a global basis to build vaccines platforms, Gates said, "I am excited that the pharmaceutical industry there will be able to produce not just for India but also for the entire world. (This is) What we need to reduce the deaths and make sure we are immune, which is how we end the epidemic."

Gates said Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is also a "partner with the government, particularly with the department of biotechnology, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the office of the principal scientific advisor provide advice and help about getting these tools going".

Commenting on the deadly virus breaching India's borders in the documentary which was shot extensively during the period of lockdown, he said, "India is still at the beginning of this, but there's a lot of very important things have been done.

“It's a huge challenge with India because you've got a gigantic country. You've got your urban centers with a lot of density-- and so that-- drives the spread. You have people moving around."

He, however, added: "Yet people are stepping up... Looking at how we reduce the spread while trying not to reduce food availability, equipment that people need."

Highlighting Gates foundation's role, he said it has "worked for the Indian government on health issues like introducing new vaccines over the last decade; and so when Covid-19 came along, we stepped in and said you know where are the gaps, we have been funding work on detection and isolation.

“We have been particularly active in UP and Bihar where we have done health delivery in the past."

The foundation is also working with the department of personnel and training to take their online training platforms and "are now using that guidance to help their frontline health workers", Gates said. 

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May 18,2020

New Delhi, May 18: Very severe cyclonic storm ‘Amphan’, over central parts of South Bay of Bengal, has intensified into extremely severe cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. The weather department has warned that ‘Amphan’ may turn into a “super cyclonic storm’.

According to experts, North Odisha coast will face the maximum impact of cyclone Amphan when it makes landfall.

“Wind speed expected to be 110-120 kmph, gusting up to 130 kmph. Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Mayurbhanj dist can be affected on 20 May (when it makes landfall), IMD Bhubaneswar scientist Umashankar Das told news agency ANI.

The IMD has said that ‘Amphan’ will cross West Bengal - Bangladesh coasts between Digha (WB) and Hatiya island - in the afternoon/evening of May 20 as very severe cyclonic storm.

Earlier, the IMD had warned that ‘Amphan’, over central parts of South Bay of Bengal, will intensify into an extremely severe cyclonic storm on Monday.

“Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) ‘AMPHAN’ over central parts of South Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.5°N and longitude 86.4°E, about 870 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha). To intensify further into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) in the next six hours,” the IMD said in a tweet on Monday.

National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has sent its 10 teams to Odisha and seven teams to West Bengal in view of the approaching Cyclone Amphan, news agency reported.

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News Network
February 29,2020

New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

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