India blames Pakistan for exodus of migrant workers

New Delhi, May 22: The number of COVID-19 cases averted due to the lockdown is in the range of 14-29 lakh, while the number of lives saved is between 37,000 and 78,000, the government said on Friday citing various studies, and asserted that the unprecedented shutdown has paid “rich dividends” in the fight against the pandemic.

The lockdown in India has been a timely, graded, proactive and pre-emptive public health measure to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and has been part and parcel of the government’s overall strategy, Dr V K Paul, Member (Health), NITI Aayog, and Chairman, Empowered Group 1, said at a media briefing on the COVID-19 situation.

The government imposed the nationwide lockdown from March 25 to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus and it is currently in its fourth phase.

Like the number of cases, the growth rate of number of COVID-19 deaths too has fallen significantly due to the lockdown, marking a notable difference between pre-lockdown and post-lockdown situations, he said.

At the briefing, Pravin Srivastava, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation gave model-based estimates on COVID-19 cases and deaths which have been prevented due to the lockdown.

As per Boston Consulting Group's model, the lockdown saved between 1.2 lakh and 2.1 lakh lives, while the number of COVID-19 cases averted is between 36 lakh and 70 lakh, he said.

According to Public Health Foundation of India, nearly 78,000 lives have been saved due to the lockdown, Srivastava said.

Citing a model by two independent economists, he said that around 23 lakh COVID-19 cases and 68,000 deaths have been averted due to the lockdown.

Some independent experts, including retired scientists, have calculated that around 15.9 lakh cases and 51,000 deaths have been averted due to the lockdown, Srivastava said.

A joint study by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation and the Indian Statistical Institute found that around 20 lakh COVID-19 cases and 54,000 deaths were averted due to lockdown, he said.

The number of COVID-19 cases averted due to the lockdown is in the range of 14-29 lakh, while the number of lives saved is between 37,000 and 78,000, the official said.

“We are fully confident that the lockdown, with full public cooperation, has reaped rich dividends,” Srivastava said.

The strong defence of the lockdown, comes a day after the health ministry said the period of lockdown has been gainfully utilized to ramp up the health infrastructure, with around 3,027 dedicated COVID-19 hospitals and 7,013 care centres being readied across the country to fight the disease.

The announcement on Thursday came after some media reports questioned the country's preparedness to deal with the highly infectious disease.

"There are reports in a section of the media about some decisions of the government regarding the lockdown implementation and response to COVID-19 management. The period of the lockdown has been gainfully utilised to ramp up the health infrastructure in the country," the ministry had said.

Addressing the press briefing on Friday, joint secretary in the health ministry Lav Agarwal said 48,534 COVID-19 patients, which is about 41 per cent of the total cases, have recovered so far. As many as 3,234 patients have recovered in the last 24 hours, he said’

The COVID-19 mortality rate has dropped from 3.13 per cent on May 19 to 3.02 per cent as focus was on containment measures andclinical management of cases, Agarwal said.

An ICMR official said 27,55,714 tests for COVID-19 have been conducted till 1 pm Friday with 1,03,829 tests done in one day. Over 1 lakh tests for COVID-19 have been done each day for the last four days, the official said.

The growth rate of novel coronavirus cases witnessed a steep decline from Apr 4 when lockdown put a brake on the speed of increase of cases, V K Paul said.

The number of COVID-19 cases would have risen exponentially had the lockdown not been implemented, he said, adding that the doubling rate of cases was 3.4 days when the lockdown started and it is 13.3 days at present.

The COVID-19 outbreak in India has remained confined to limited areas with 80 per cent of active cases in just five states, Paul said

He said around 80 pc of COVID-19 deaths have been in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Delhi. 

New Delhi, Jun 4: India's Defence Secretary Ajay Kumar tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, following which the defence ministry carried out a massive contact-tracing exercise, official sources said.

Kumar's condition is stable and he is currently under home-quarantine, they said.

At least 35 officials working at the ministry's headquarters in South Block in the Raisina Hills have been sent on home quarantine after reports of Kumar testing positive for the infection emerged on Wednesday morning.

There was no official comment on Kumar's health condition. The defence ministry spokesperson refused to comment on the issue.

It is learnt that Defence Minister Rajnath Singh did not attend office as part of a precautionary measure.

The offices of the defence minister, the defence secretary, the Army Chief and the Navy Chief are on the first floor of the South Block.

The sources said all laid down protocols on contact-tracing and quarantining of people are being scrupulously followed.

Kolkata, May 20: Cyclone 'Amphan' lay centred about 240 km south of Digha in West Bengal on Wednesday morning as an extremely severe cyclonic storm, the Met department said here.

The intensity near the centre of the storm was 170 to 180 kmph gusting to 200 kmph, the Met said.

'Amphan' is very likely to move north-northeastwards and cross West Bengal-Bangladesh coast between Digha and Hatiya, close to the Sunderbans during the afternoon to evening of Wednesday with a wind speed of 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph as a 'very severe cyclonic storm', the Met department said.

West Bengal has evacuated more than three lakh people to safer places as the cyclonic storm 'Amphan' roared towards the coastal areas of the state, officials said.

The Met department, which has issued an "orange message" for West Bengal, warned of extensive damage in Kolkata, Hooghly, Howrah, South and North 24 Parganas and East Midnapore districts.

The Met department has advised that all establishments and markets remain closed in Kolkata and adjoining areas and movement of people be restricted on May 20.

There is likely to be disruption of rail and road link at several places, uprooting of communication and power poles, extensive damage to all types of 'kutcha' houses and some damage to "old badly managed pucca" structures and potential threat from flying objects, the weatherman warned.

There is also likelihood of extensive damage to standing crops, plantations and orchards and blowing down of palm and coconut trees, the Met said.

The weatherman has advised diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic in the districts which are likely to be affected.

The Eastern Railway (ER) has cancelled the departure of Howrah-New Delhi AC Special Express for Wednesday.

The departure of 02301 Howrah-New Delhi AC Special Express on Wednesday and 02302 New Delhi-Howrah AC Special Express on May 21 would remain cancelled, the ER said.

Wind speed along and off the coastal areas of West Bengal will reach 75 to 85 kmph with gusts up to 95 kmph from Wednesday morning along and off districts of North and South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore, Kolkata, Howrah and Hooghly, Regional Met director G K Das said.

"It will gradually increase thereafter becoming 110 to 120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph over West Midnapore, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata and wind speed of 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph over the districts of North and South 24 Parganas and East Midnapore of West Bengal from the afternoon to night of May 20," he said.

Under its impact rainfall will occur in most places over the districts of Gangetic West Bengal on Wednesday, with heavy to very heavy downpour with extremely heavy rain at a few places in Kolkata, Howrah, East Midnapore, North and South 24 Parganas and Hooghly districts, he said.

"Storm surge of 4 to 5 metres above astronomical tide is likely to inundate low lying areas of South and North 24 Parganas and about 3 to 4 metres over low lying areas of East Midnapore district of West Bengal during the time of landfall," he said.

The Indian Navy has dispatched a diving team for providing assistance to the West Bengal government in relief operations, a Defence official said.

The diving team from Vishakhapatnam has brought specialised equipment along with them which can be used for rescue in case of flooding and have been positioned at the Naval Service Selection Board at Diamond Harbour in South 24 Parganas district, the official said.