Man behind IC-814 hijack held in J&K

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Mumbai, Apr 2: NCP chief Sharad Pawar on Thursday

urged Muslims to observe Shab-e-Barat staying inside their homes, and also suggested that the birth anniversary celebrations of Dalit icon Dr B R Ambedkar be postponed in view of the coronavirus outbreak.

Pawar said Ram Navami, being observed on Thursday, is celebrated with fervour every year across the country.

"Unfortunately, there is this threat of coronavirus this year and we have to observe some restrictions...but I am sure people must be remembering Lord Ram staying inside their homes," he said in his address via Facebook.

Shab-e-Barat, also known as the night of forgiveness,will be observed on April 8.

Members of the Muslim community visit graveyards to remember their relatives who are no more, Pawar said, and called for taking precautions to avoid gathering of people given the coronavirus crisis.

Pawar said congregation such as the one held last month in Delhi's Nizamuddin area by Tablighi Jamaat could have been avoided, and urged people to ensure there is no repeat of such meetings on Shab-e-Barat.

"The meeting should have been avoided, but it was notand others may have to pay for it," Pawar said referring to the religious meeting in the national capital.

He said the "possibility of some people who attended the meeting carrying the disease cannot be ruled out" and pressed for maintaining discipline given the situation caused by the COVID-19 outbreak.

"Shab-e-Barat is on April 8. Muslims remember their relatives, who are not more, by visiting kabrastan (graveyard). It should be observed inside home. Precaution should be taken to see there is no repeat of the Nizamuddin meeting-like episode," he said.

The birth anniversary of Ambedkar, the architect of the Indian Constitution, is observed on April 14.

Pawar said people should also think about postponing Ambedkar's birth anniversary celebrations.

"We normally celebrate it (the anniversary) for two or so months. We should think whether we should really observe the programme at this juncture (given the coronavirus threat).

If we come together, we may have to face health issues," the former Union minister said.

He said in general, 90 per cent people have been observing the lockdown, but 10 per cent are not doing so.

The Centre and the Maharashtra government may have to extend the lockdown period if discipline is not observed till April 14 (till when the lockdown is in force), he said, urging people to toe the line in the interest of each other.

Pawar also praised Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, the state administration and police for working round-the- clock, and asked people to cooperate with them by staying at home.