Weak rupee makes gold smuggling, bets attractive

September 15, 2012

New Delhi, September 15: When 26-year-old Abdul Salam from Dubai was arrested at Mumbai airport last month with 156 gold chains concealed in his shoes, he was trying to land an irresistible windfall. Gold prices are rising faster in India than overseas. And this has brought back a profit opportunity, legal, not-quite-legal and illegal.

Gold arbitrage is promising punters as much as 12% annual return on investment. For some, it's almost Haji Mastan time again. But here's a difference - the infamous gold smuggler arbitraged on government ban on gold imports, today's shadier punters rely on the rupee's weakness against the dollar and the impact a weak rupee has on local gold prices.

There has been a 10-fold increase in the number of gold smuggling cases in recent months. Between April and June this year, authorities impounded gold worth 940 crore in some 200 cases of smuggling, up 272% over the same period last year, finance ministry data shows.

Smugglers make money if they can successfully avoid paying duties - 4% customs duty and other taxes, which add 5%-plus to the landed cost of gold.

Arbitraging on gold in less risky ways is possible - but complicated. The incentives, for all kinds of punters, is however simple to understand.

Take this price comparison. On September 10, 2011, the spot London price was $1,857/ounce. The price on MCX in Mumbai was 28,152/10 gms. On September 10, 2012, the spot London price was $1,736. The price on MCX was 32,035. In other words, while gold overseas dropped 6.5% in last one year, gold on MCX has risen almost 14%.

Why? Last September, the dollar was trading at 46.48. Now, the exchange rate is 55.36. It's this near- 20% depreciation of the rupee that has pushed up local gold prices.

The thumb rule is that every one rupee rise or fall in the exchange rate leads to a movement of 500-550 per 10 gm in the same direction on MCX. Since the rupee is expected to further weaken against the dollar as companies scramble to pay back overseas loans in the next couple of months, gold's faster rise in India is virtually guaranteed for the rest of the year.

"Normally international gold prices rise on the back of a weakening dollar. Currently, while the dollar's weakness continues to push up gold, the dollar has strengthened against the rupee. That is why Indian prices are higher than the world market. It is a pure currency play," says analyst Thiagarajan Gnanasekar at CommTrendz Research and Fund Management.

How does a canny investor - assuming he's not keen on smuggling - take advantage of this currency play?

When gold lands legally in India, it attracts taxes that add up to more than 5% (4% customs duty and local taxes). After paying that duty, there's no real possibility of arbitrage. That's why NRIs, allowed to legally import 1 kg gold per head, can't play the local market.

Theoretically, an Indian investor can buy a gold contract on New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, hedge the rupee against the dollar, and sell an equivalent contract on the MCX, says Ashok Mittal, CEO, Emkay Commotrade, a brokerage.

This can be a high risk strategy. You have to pay some cash upfront as margin money in both MCX and Comex along with the brokerage fees. There is the cost of hedging the rupee against the dollar.

gold


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News Network
March 7,2020

Srinagar, Mar 7: Two more accused, including a man who allegedly bought chemicals online for making improvised explosive device (IED) to be used in an attack on a convoy of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Jammu and Kashmir's Pulwama last year, were arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) on Friday, an official said.

The terror attack left 40 CRPF personnel dead in south Kashmir's Pulwama last year.

Waiz-ul-Islam, 19, from Srinagar and Mohammad Abbass Rather, 32, from Pulwama were arrested by the NIA, taking the number of those arrested in the case in the past week to five.

"During initial interrogation, Islam disclosed that he used his Amazon online shopping account to procure chemicals for making IEDs, batteries and other accessories on the directions of Pakistani Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terrorists," the official said.

He said Islam personally delivered the items to the JeM terrorists after buying them online as a part of the conspiracy to carry out the attack.

"Rather is an old overground worker of the JeM. He has disclosed that he gave shelter at his home to Jaish terrorist and IED expert Mohd Umar after he came to Kashmir in April-May 2018," the official said.

Rather also sheltered other JeM terrorists - suicide bomber Adil Ahmad Dar, Sameer Ahmed Dar and Kamran, a Pakistani -- at his house before the Pulwama attack, the official said.

"He also facilitated safe shelter for the JeM terrorists, including Adil, at the house of accused Tariq Ahmed Shah and his daughter Insha Jan of Hakripora, who were arrested on March 3," the official said.

He said Islam and Rather will be produced before the NIA special court in Jammu on Saturday, while further investigation in the case continues. The NIA took over the case to probe the conspiracy behind the February 14, 2019, attack in Pulwama.

The last video of Adil, which was released by the JeM from Pakistan after the terror attack, was filmed at the home of Tariq Ahmed Shah. On February 28, the NIA achieved a major breakthrough in the case when it arrested 22-year-old Shakir Bashir Magrey, a furniture shop owner and resident of Pulwama.

Magrey had given shelter and other logistical assistance to suicide bomber Adil. He was introduced to Adil in mid-2018 by Pakistani terrorist Mohammad Umar Farooq and he became a full-time OGW of the JeM.

The explosives used in the attack were determined through forensic probe to be ammonium nitrate, nitro-glycerin and RDX. During investigation into the attack, the identity of the suicide bomber to be Adil Ahmad Dar was confirmed through DNA matching with that of his father.

The other key terrorists involved in the attack have been found to be JeM's south Kashmir divisional head Muddasir Ahmad Khan, killed in an operation by the security forces on March 11 last year; Pakistani terrorists Muhammad Umar Farooq and IED expert Kamran, both killed on March 29 last year; the owner of the car Sajjad Ahmad Bhat, a resident of Anantnag who was killed on June 16 last year, and Qari Yassir, JeM's commander for Kashmir who was killed on January 25 this year.

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News Network
February 3,2020

New Delhi, Feb 3: Union minister Prakash Javadekar on Monday said Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal had called himself an "anarchist" and there is not much of a "difference between an anarchist and a terrorist".

His remarks come a few days after the Election Commission issued a show cause notice to BJP MP Parvesh Verma for allegedly calling Kejriwal a "terrorist".

Addressing a press conference here, Javadekar raked up the issue of Kejriwal "staying a night at the Moga residence of Khalistan Commando Force chief Gurinder Singh during the Punjab Assembly polls".

"You knew it was a militant's house. Still, you stayed there. How much more evidence do you need?" he said.

"Kejriwal is now asking with a sad face, 'am I a terrorist?' You are a terrorist and there is a lot of evidence to prove that. You yourself had said you are an anarchist. There is not much of a difference between an anarchist and a terrorist," the senior BJP leader said.

Flanked by Delhi BJP chief Manoj Tiwari and Union minister Anurag Thakur, Javadekar said the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was supporting Shaheen Bagh, where slogans of "Assam ko azadi", "Jinnah wali azadi" were being raised. "Supporting such slogans is also terrorism".

He alleged that Kejriwal stood with Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), where "anti-India slogans were raised, and did not grant sanction to prosecute (those who raised the slogans)".

"On January 26, you threatened that you would stop their prosecution. How much more proof do you need? The people of Delhi now know that you are the chief of liars, you are an anarchist and sympathise with terrorists.

"You are supporting Shaheen Bagh, JNU, the slogans being raised there and all such anarchists...then you are definitely a terrorist. This is your identity, no matter how innocent face you make," he said.

On Thursday, the Election Commission had issued a show cause notice to Verma, the BJP MP from West Delhi, for allegedly calling Kejriwal a "terrorist".

He was earlier barred from campaigning for 96 hours (four days) for making controversial remarks at a poll meet recently.

An emotional Kejriwal had later said it was for the people of Delhi to decide whether they consider him their son, brother, or a terrorist.

"How have I become a terrorist? I've arranged for medicines...did so much for the needy. I've never thought of myself or my family... am ready to give my life for the nation," he had said at a press conference.

Comments

Abdul Gaffar Bolar
 - 
Tuesday, 4 Feb 2020

RSS is a terrorist organization and they made agreement with another terrorist BODO organization.

Fairman
 - 
Monday, 3 Feb 2020

Kejrival or others no need to clarify these goons.

 

Who are these goons to be replied,

They are the worst terrorists on this whole universe.

 

Kerjrival and AAP team,  don't look at these goons, just focus on  your unfinished next work.

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News Network
May 25,2020

New Delhi, May 25: Mahindra Group Chairman Anand Mahindra on Monday said lockdown extensions are not just economically disastrous but also create another medical crisis.

While acknowledging that choices are not easy for policymakers, he said a lockdown extension will not help.

"Lockdown extensions aren't just economically disastrous, as I had tweeted earlier, but also create another medical crisis," Mahindra said in a tweet.

He was referring to an article that highlighted "the dangerous psychological effects of lockdowns & the huge risk of neglecting non-COVID patients".

Mahindra, who had earlier proposed a comprehensive lifting after 49 days of lockdown, further said, "The choices aren't easy for policy makers but a lockdown extension won't help".

He said, "The numbers (coronavirus cases) will continue to rise & the focus must be on rapid expansion of field hospital beds with oxygen lines".

He further said, "The army has enormous expertise in this".

On March 22, before the government announced nationwide lockdown, Mahindra had proposed such a move expressing concerns over reports that India was likely to have already reached stage 3 of coronavirus transmission.

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