Weak rupee makes gold smuggling, bets attractive

September 15, 2012

New Delhi, September 15: When 26-year-old Abdul Salam from Dubai was arrested at Mumbai airport last month with 156 gold chains concealed in his shoes, he was trying to land an irresistible windfall. Gold prices are rising faster in India than overseas. And this has brought back a profit opportunity, legal, not-quite-legal and illegal.

Gold arbitrage is promising punters as much as 12% annual return on investment. For some, it's almost Haji Mastan time again. But here's a difference - the infamous gold smuggler arbitraged on government ban on gold imports, today's shadier punters rely on the rupee's weakness against the dollar and the impact a weak rupee has on local gold prices.

There has been a 10-fold increase in the number of gold smuggling cases in recent months. Between April and June this year, authorities impounded gold worth 940 crore in some 200 cases of smuggling, up 272% over the same period last year, finance ministry data shows.

Smugglers make money if they can successfully avoid paying duties - 4% customs duty and other taxes, which add 5%-plus to the landed cost of gold.

Arbitraging on gold in less risky ways is possible - but complicated. The incentives, for all kinds of punters, is however simple to understand.

Take this price comparison. On September 10, 2011, the spot London price was $1,857/ounce. The price on MCX in Mumbai was 28,152/10 gms. On September 10, 2012, the spot London price was $1,736. The price on MCX was 32,035. In other words, while gold overseas dropped 6.5% in last one year, gold on MCX has risen almost 14%.

Why? Last September, the dollar was trading at 46.48. Now, the exchange rate is 55.36. It's this near- 20% depreciation of the rupee that has pushed up local gold prices.

The thumb rule is that every one rupee rise or fall in the exchange rate leads to a movement of 500-550 per 10 gm in the same direction on MCX. Since the rupee is expected to further weaken against the dollar as companies scramble to pay back overseas loans in the next couple of months, gold's faster rise in India is virtually guaranteed for the rest of the year.

"Normally international gold prices rise on the back of a weakening dollar. Currently, while the dollar's weakness continues to push up gold, the dollar has strengthened against the rupee. That is why Indian prices are higher than the world market. It is a pure currency play," says analyst Thiagarajan Gnanasekar at CommTrendz Research and Fund Management.

How does a canny investor - assuming he's not keen on smuggling - take advantage of this currency play?

When gold lands legally in India, it attracts taxes that add up to more than 5% (4% customs duty and local taxes). After paying that duty, there's no real possibility of arbitrage. That's why NRIs, allowed to legally import 1 kg gold per head, can't play the local market.

Theoretically, an Indian investor can buy a gold contract on New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, hedge the rupee against the dollar, and sell an equivalent contract on the MCX, says Ashok Mittal, CEO, Emkay Commotrade, a brokerage.

This can be a high risk strategy. You have to pay some cash upfront as margin money in both MCX and Comex along with the brokerage fees. There is the cost of hedging the rupee against the dollar.

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Mumbai COVID-19 doubling rate is 50 days, highest in India

Agencies

July 13,2020

Mumbai, Jul 13: In a significant landmark, the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has achieved a doubling-rate of 50 days for COVID-19 cases, a top official said on Monday.

This was possible because of the civic body's 'open testing policy', implying tests without prescriptions, making it the only city in the country to implement it.

"After the open testing policy, our testing has gone up from 4,000 to 6,800, daily. But the total positive cases have come down from 1,400 to 1,200 now," BMC Municipal Commissioner I.S. Chahal told IANS.

Of these 1,200 positive cases, the symptomatic cases are less than 200, so the BMC needs only 200 beds daily, the civic chief said.

Even the BMC's discharge rate now stands at 70 percent, and on Sunday, after allotting beds to all patients, there were still 7,000 COVID beds plus 250 ICU beds lying vacant, said Chahal.

For this achievement, Chahal gave the credit to the entire 'Team BMC' where - despite losing a little over 100 officials to the virus - civic officials and other Corona warriors are engaged 24x7 in controlling the pandemic for over four months.

Since the first case was detected in Mumbai on March 11 (after the state's first infectees in Pune on March 9) and the state's first death notched in Mumbai on March 17, the current Maharashtra Covid-19 tally stands at 2,54,427 cases and fatalities at 10,289, while Mumbai has recorded 92,988 cases with a death toll of 5,288.

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Women's college issues dress code, prohibits burqa

Agencies

January 25,2020

Patna, Jan 25: JD Women's College in Patna has issued a direction to the students to follow the prescribed dress code on the campus while stating that wearing a 'burqa' in college is prohibited.

"All students have to come to college in the prescribed dress code, every day except on Saturday. Students are prohibited from wearing 'burqa' in college", reads a notice signed by the Principal and Proctor of the college.

The college administration has also imposed a fine of Rs. 250 for violation of the norm.

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I think this college management will allow girl students to wear tight jeans + t-shair and miniskirts but is not allowing a girl to cover her body. Are we in ancient days where humans had no dress to cover themselves or in the time of Nair kings in kerala who restricted ladies of low caste from covering their chest.

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Parties should not give tickets to candidates with criminal background: ECI to SC

Agencies

January 24,2020

New Delhi, Jan 24: The Election Commission of India on Friday told the Supreme Court that its 2018 direction asking poll candidates to declare their criminal antecedents in electronic and print media has not helped curb criminalisation of politics. The poll panel suggested that instead of asking candidates to declare criminal antecedents in the media, political parties should be asked not to give tickets to candidates with criminal background.

A bench of Justices R F Nariman and S Ravindra Bhat asked the ECI to come up with a framework within one week which can help curb criminalisation of politics in nation's interest.

The top court asked the petitioner BJP leader and advocate Ashiwini Upadhyay and the poll panel to sit together and come up with suggestions which would help him in curbing criminalisation of politics.

In September 2018, a five-judge Constitution bench had unanimously held that all candidates will have to declare their criminal antecedents to the Election Commission before contesting polls and had called for a wider publicity, through print and electronic media about antecedents of candidates.

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What about those criminals who were already in parliament and vidahan sabhas? shall the ECI cancel their positions?