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From March through May, around 1 crore migrant workers fled India’s megacities, afraid to be unemployed, hungry and far from family during the world’s biggest anti-Covid-19 lockdown.

Now, as Asia’s third-largest economy slowly reopens, the effects of that massive relocation are rippling across the country. Urban industries don’t have enough workers to get back to capacity, and rural states worry that without the flow of remittances from the city, already poor families will be even worse off -- and a bigger strain on state coffers.

Meanwhile, migrant workers aren’t expected to return to the cities as long as the virus is spreading and work is uncertain. States are rolling out stimulus programs, but India’s economy is hurtling for its first contraction in more than 40 years, and without enough jobs, a volatile political climate gets more so.

“This will be a huge economic shock, especially for households of short-term, cyclical migrants, who tend to come from vulnerable, poor and low-caste and tribal backgrounds,” said Varun Aggarwal, a founder of India Migration Now, a research and advocacy group based in Mumbai.

In the first 15 days of India’s lockdown, domestic remittances dropped by 90%, according to Rishi Gupta, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Fino Paytech Ltd., which operates the country’s biggest payments bank.

By the end of May, remittances were back to around 1750 rupees ($23), about half the pre-Covid average. Gupta’s not sure how soon it’ll fully recover. “Migrants are in no hurry to come back,” Gupta said. “They’re saying that they’re not thinking of going back at all.”

If workers stay in their home states long term, policymakers will have more than remittances to worry about. If consumption falls and the new surplus of labor drives wages down, Agarwal said, “there will also be a second-order shock to the local economy. Overall, not looking good.”

India announced a $277 billion stimulus package in May and followed it up with a $7 billion program aimed at creating jobs for 125 days for migrants in villages across 116 districts. Separately, local authorities are also looking for solutions.

Officials in Bihar have identified 2,500 acres of land that could be made available to investors, said Sushil Modi, deputy chief minister of Bihar, a state in east India. “We can use this crisis as an opportunity to speed up reforms,” he said.

The investors haven’t materialised yet, and in the meanwhile, state governments are relying on the national cash-for-work program that guarantees 100 days worth of wages per household.

Skilled workers don’t want to do manual labor offered through the program, and even if they did, says Amitabh Kundu of RIS, many think of it as beneath their station. “There will be an increase in social tensions,” he predicts. “Caste may again start playing a role. It’s absolute chaos.”

For skilled workers, initiatives vary:

* Uttar Pradesh, which received 3.2 million people, is compiling lists of skilled workers who need employment and trying to place them with local manufacturing and real estate industry associations. So far, the government says, it’s placed 300,000 people with construction and real estate firms.

* Bihar has placed returners in state-run infrastructure projects and hired others to stitch uniforms and make furniture for government-run schools, even as they waited in quarantine centres, said Pratyay Amrit, head of the state’s disaster management department.

* The eastern state of Odisha announced an urban wage employment program aimed at putting as many as 450,000 day labourers to work through September. Some 25,000 people have been employed, so far, under the scheme, G. Mathivathanan, principal secretary for housing and urban development said.

Attracting Investments

It’s not clear any of this will be enough to make a dent, says Ravi Srivastava, professor at New Delhi-based Institute of Human Development, adding that the states don’t have much of a track record on economic development.

“It was the failure of these states to improve governance and put development plans in place that led to the out-migration in the first place,” he said.

But officials and workers’ rights advocates see opportunity. Uttar Pradesh has established liaisons to encourage companies from the US, Japan and South Korea to establish manufacturing in the state. There and in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the government has made labour laws more friendly to employers, making it easier to hire and fire workers.

Modi, the minister from Bihar, said the migration may also give workers--historically a disenfranchised group--new power, particularly as urban centres struggle. “The way industries treated workers during the lockdown -- didn’t pay them, the living conditions were poor -- now these industries will realize the value of this force,” Modi said.

“In the days to come, labour will emerge as a force that can’t be ignored anymore,” he added. “That’s the new normal. We will work out how to ensure dignity, rights to our people who are going to work in other states.”

Bihar is due for elections by November, a vote that could be an early test of the mass migration’s political consequences. The state is currently governed by a coalition that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. Amitabh Kundu, a fellow at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries, a New Delhi-based government think-tank, said migrant workers are likely to be angry voters.

“Chief ministers are telling these migrants that they will not have to go back for work,” he said. “But their capacity to do something miraculous in the next four to five months is doubtful. If they can retain even one-fourth of the migrants, I would call it a success.”

New Delhi, Apr 27: The number of COVID-19 cases climbed to 28,380 and the death toll due to it rose to 886 in the country on Monday, registering a record increase of 60 deaths in 24 hours, according to the Union Health Ministry.

There has been a spike of 1,463 cases since Sunday evening.

The number of active COVID-19 cases stood at 21,132, while 6,361 people have recovered, and one patient has migrated, the ministry said.

Thus, around 22.41 per cent of patients have recovered in the country so far.

The total number of cases includes 111 foreign nationals.

A total of 60 deaths were reported since Sunday evening, of which 19 fatalities were reported from Maharashtra, 18 from Gujarat, eight from Rajasthan, seven from Madhya Pradesh, two each from Karnataka, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, and one each from Punjab and Tamil Nadu.

Of the 886 deaths, Maharashtra tops the tally with 342 fatalities, followed by Gujarat at 151, Madhya Pradesh at 106, Delhi at 54, Rajasthan at 41, and Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh at 31 each.

The death toll reached 26 in Telangana, 24 in Tamil Nadu while West Bengal and Karnataka have reported 20 deaths each.

Punjab has registered 18 fatalities so far. The disease has claimed six lives in Jammu and Kashmir, four in Kerala while Jharkhand and Haryana have recorded three COVID-19 deaths each.

Bihar has reported two deaths, while Meghalaya, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha and Assam have reported one fatality each, according to the ministry data.

According to the Health Ministry data updated in the evening, the highest number of confirmed cases in the country are from Maharashtra at 8,068, followed by Gujarat at 3,301, Delhi at 2,918, Rajasthan at 2,185, Madhya Pradesh at 2,168, Uttar Pradesh at 1,955 and Tamil Nadu at 1,885.

The number of COVID-19 cases has gone up to 1,177 in Andhra Pradesh and 1,002 in Telangana.

The number of cases has risen to 649 in West Bengal, 523 in Jammu and Kashmir, 511 in Karnataka, 469 in Kerala, 313 in Punjab and 289 in Haryana.

Bihar has reported 277 novel coronavirus cases, while Odisha has 108 cases. Eighty-two people have been infected with the virus in Jharkhand and 51 in Uttarakhand.

Himachal Pradesh has 40 cases, Chhattisgarh has 37 and Assam has registered 36 infections each so far.

Andaman and Nicobar Islands has 33 COVID-19 cases while Chandigarh has 30 cases and Ladakh has reported 20 infections so far.

Meghalaya has reported 12 cases, Puducherry has eight cases while Goa has seven COVID-19 cases.

Manipur and Tripura have two cases each, while Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh have reported a case each.

New Delhi, Jun 22: With an increase of 14,821 new cases and 445 deaths, India's COVID-19 count reached 4,25,282 on Monday.

According to the latest update by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), 13,699 deaths have been recorded due to the infection so far in the country.

The rise in confirmed cases today is lower than the highest spike of 15 thousand plus cases registered on Sunday.

The count includes 1,74,387 active cases, and 2,37,196 cured/discharged/migrated patients.

Maharashtra with 1,32,075 confirmed cases remains the worst-affected by the infection so far in the country. The state's count includes 60,161 active, 65,744 cured, discharged patients while 6,170 deaths have been reported due to the infection so far.

Meanwhile, the national capital today became the second-worst affected region in the country with the number of confirmed cases in Delhi reaching 59,746 as opposed to Tamil Nadu's 59,377 cases.

While 2,175 deaths have been reported in Delhi due to the infection so far, the toll in Tamil Nadu stands at 757.