PM, Sonia to make aerial survey of flood-ravaged Uttarakhand to assess damage

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 30: Kerala reported 32

fresh cases of coronavirus on Monday, with the worst affected Kasaragod district alone accounting for 17 cases.

Kannur reported 15 cases, while Wayanad and Idukki reported two each, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan told reporters here after a COVID-19 review meeting.

Of the 32 cases, 17 had come from abroad and 15 had been infected through contact.

A total of 213 people are presently under treatment in Kerala.

At least 1.50 lakh people are under surveillance in the state and 623 are in isolation wards of various hospitals.

Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 23: Amid a spurt in coronavirus cases, Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan has asked the Centre to give the states authority to give clearances for manufacturing masks, gloves and sanitisers.

In a letter addressed to prime minister Narendra Modi, Vijayan said during the crisis, masks and sanitisers are needed in large numbers.

"As an interim, states must be given authority to give clearances of manufacturing of items related to medical devices, sanitisers, chemicals, etc. which are needed for fighting Covid-19," Vijayan said in the letter.

He also sought permission for the state home department to use drones for the relevant applications related to Covid-19.

"In China and elsewhere in the world, drones have been used extensively in minimising human contact, disinfection, etc. Unfortunately, with the current laws pertaining to the use of drones, none of these is possible in India," the chief minister said.

He also sought permission to access and use facilities available with all central institutions and research labs operating in the state.

The chief minister shared the letter on his Twitter handle.

With 15 new positive cases of Covid-19, the total number of infected persons in Kerala had gone up to 67, including the three who were discharged after recovery last month.