Now, climate-based system could predict dengue spread in India

Agencies
September 3, 2017

London, Sept 3: Scientists have developed a system that can predict the spread of dengue in different parts of India, based on climatic factors, an advance that may help take preventive measures against the deadly infection.

Researchers from the University of Liverpool in the UK identified the climatic risks for dengue disease outbreaks in different climatic zones in the country through the states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Kerala. The team, in collaboration with researchers from Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (IICT) in Hyderabad and National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research

(NIPER) in Guwahati, focused on changes in a factor called 'extrinsic incubation period (EIP)' of the dengue virus by taking into account daily and monthly mean temperatures in these areas.

EIP is the time taken for incubation of the virus in the mosquito. During this period, after the mosquito draws a virus-rich-blood meal, the virus escapes the gut, passes through the mosquito's body and reaches it salivary glands. Once this happens, the mosquito is infectious and capable of transmitting the virus to a human host. It has been found that climatic conditions play an important role in EIP.

Lower temperatures (17-18 degrees Celsius) result in longer EIPs thereby leading to decreased virus transmission. With increasing temperatures, feeding increases because of enhanced metabolism of the mosquito, leading to shorter EIPs. Even a five-day decrease in the incubation period can hike transmission rate by three times, and with an increase in temperature from 17 to 30 degrees Celsius, dengue transmission increases fourfold.

However, a further increase in temperature beyond 35 degrees Celsius is detrimental to the mosquito survival. Researchers observed that except for Gujarat which comprises of arid regions, there was a strong correlation between rainfall and dengue disease burden.

They propose an increase in breeding grounds for mosquitoes as a major reason for this finding. The study found that Kerala being warm (temperature range 23.5-30 degrees Celsius) and wet and with short EIPs (9-14 days) experiences the highest number of dengue cases.

It has been found that EIP is the shortest during the monsoon season in most states and therefore there is an enhanced risk of dengue during this time. It is important to take into account the dynamic EIP estimates in different regions in assessing disease burden. "This climate-based dengue forecasting model could help health authorities to assess the disease intensity in a geographic region, based on that they can plan disease control operations well in advance and optimise the use of resources meticulously," said Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni of IICT, who led the study.

Changes in temperature affecting the extrinsic incubation period of the virus, future changes in the climate might have a substantial effect on dengue and other vector-borne disease burden in India.

"Though such methods are in vogue for disease control operations, we are still in the initial stages of implementation of such strategic control methods," Rao said. "Factors such as population density and migration also need to be included for future risk assessment studies," he said.

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Agencies
May 25,2020

Singapore, May 25: COVID-19 patients are no longer infectious after 11 days of getting sick even though some may still test positive, according to a new study by infectious disease experts in Singapore.

A positive test "does not equate to infectiousness or viable virus," a joint research paper by Singapore's National Centre for Infectious Diseases and the Academy of Medicine, Singapore said. The virus "could not be isolated or cultured after day 11 of illness."

The paper was based on a study of 73 patents in the city-state.

The latest findings may have implications on the country's patient discharge policy. The discharge criteria is currently based on negative test results rather than infectiousness.

Singapore's strategy on managing COVID-19 patients is guided by the latest local and international clinical scientific evidence, and the Ministry of Health will evaluate if the latest evidence can be incorporated into its patient clinical management plan, according to a report by the Straits Times.

So far, 13,882, or about 45% of the total 31,068 Covid-19 patients in Singapore have been discharged from hospitals and community facilities. Singapore reported 642 new Covid-19 cases as of noon on Saturday.

The government has been actively screening pre-school staff as it prepares to reopen pre-schools from June 2. On Friday, two pre-school employees tested positive for the novel coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases among pre-school staff to seven, according to the Ministry of Health.

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Agencies
May 30,2020

Drinking coffee may help reduce the risk of certain digestive disorders, including gallstone disease and pancreatitis, a new study has suggested.

The study from the Institute for Scientific Information on Coffee (ISIC) also highlighted other beneficial effects that coffee consumption may have on the process of digestion, including supporting gut microflora and promoting gut motility.

"Data indicates benefits against common digestive complaints such as constipation, as well as a potential reduction in the risk of more serious conditions like chronic liver diseases," said study author Carlo La Vecchia from the University of Milan in Italy.

Gallstone disease is a common digestive disorder, caused by the accumulation of gallstones in the gallbladder or bile duct, which affects approximately 10-15 per cent of the adult population.

While the mechanism by which coffee may protect against gallstone disease is not yet known, it has been observed that the risk for the condition declines with increasing daily consumption of coffee, the researchers said.

Caffeine is thought to play a role in these associations, as the same effect is not observed with decaffeinated coffee.

A common question among consumers and focus area for research is whether coffee is associated with heartburn or gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD).

While a small number of studies have suggested an association between coffee drinking and GORD, the majority of studies reviewed suggest that coffee is not a major trigger of these conditions.

The report also reviewed a growing area of health and nutrition research, namely: the effect of coffee on the gut microflora (microorganism populations).

Recent studies suggest that populations of the beneficial gut bacteria Bifidobacterium spp, increase after drinking coffee.

The findings showed the dietary fibre and polyphenols found in coffee, support the healthy growth of microflora populations.

Additional research findings highlighted that coffee consumption is thought to stimulate digestion by encouraging the release of gastric acid, bile and pancreatic secretions.

Coffee is one of the most widely researched components of the diet, and its effect on digestion remains a growing area of research, the researchers noted.

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Agencies
June 27,2020

After admitting that the world may have a COVID-19 vaccine within one year or even a few months earlier, the World Health Organisation (WHO) on Friday said that UK-based AstraZeneca is leading the vaccine race while US-based pharmaceutical major Moderna is not far behind.

WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan stated that the AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine candidate is the most advanced vaccine currently in terms of development.

"I think AstraZeneca certainly has a more global scope at the moment in terms of where they are doing and planning their vaccine trials," she told the media.

AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine candidate developed by researchers from the Oxford University will likely provide protection against the disease for one year, the British drug maker's CEO told Belgian radio station Bel RTL this month.

The Oxford University last month announced the start of a Phase II/III UK trial of the vaccine, named AZD1222 (formerly known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19), in about 10,000 adult volunteers. Other late-stage trials are due to begin in a number of countries.

Last week, Swaminathan had said that nearly 2 billion doses of the COVID-19 vaccine would be ready by the end of next year.

Addressing the media from Geneva, she said that "at the moment, we do not have a proven vaccine but if we are lucky, there will be one or two successful candidates before the end of this year" and 2 billion doses by the end of next year.

Scientists predict that the world may have a COVID-19 vaccine within one year or even a few months earlier, said the Director-General of the World Health Organization even as he underlined the importance of global cooperation to develop, manufacture and distribute the vaccines.

However, making the vaccine available and distributing it to all will be a challenge and will require political will, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Thursday during a meeting with the European Parliament's Committee for Environment, Public Health and Food Safety.

One option would be to give the vaccine only to those who are most vulnerable to the virus.

There are currently over 100 COVID-19 vaccine candidates in various stages of development.

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