Oh My Gau Mata! Modi govt withdraws ban on sale of cattle for slaughter

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Bengaluru, Jul 22: On Wednesday morning starlet and Bigg Boss 3 contestant Jayashree Ramaiah sent social media into a tizzy with an update that read, “I quit. Goodbye to this f*****g world and depression.” Friends and acquaintances immediately began reaching out to the actor asking her to return their concerned calls and desist from taking any extreme steps.

“Jayashree has been battling depression for a while now. She had family issues and was also concerned about the lack of work,” shares actor Ashvithi Shetty. The Ramachari twins were in touch with Jayashree since they met at a celebrity cricket match four years ago. “She has shared several times about how low she’s been and I would try to cheer her up. But the problem was that she’d keep changing her phone number so often that it became difficult to keep track of how she was doing,” states Ashvithi.

Around four months ago, Jayashree moved into her own home and mentioned to her that she was happy with this new development in her life. “But she went retreated again and a few days ago, I messaged her on social media and she said she was doing fine. So I was shocked to see this update on Wednesday morning,” avers the actor. Repeated calls finally elicited a message from Jayashree that she was getting admitted to the hospital. “But I also got contradictory information that she had been discharged and had been taken to the hospital again but she was refusing to go inside. I am awaiting more clarity on the issue,” sums up Ashvithi.