Pak seeks bigger SAARC to counter India's influence

October 12, 2016

Islamabad, Oct 12: Pakistan is exploring the possibility of creating a greater South Asian economic alliance to include China, Iran and neighbouring Central Asian republics as part of its bid counter India's influence in SAARC, a media report said today.pak

Dawn News, citing diplomatic observers, said Pakistan is exploring the possibility of creating a greater South Asian economic alliance to counter India's "controlling hold" on the eight-member South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

A parliamentary delegation from Pakistan, which is now in New York, pitched this idea during its five-day visit to Washington last week, the report said.

"A greater South Asia is already emerging," Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed was quoted as saying in one of his interactions with the media.

"This greater South Asia includes China, Iran and the neighbouring Central Asian republics," he said.

He described the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as the key economic route linking South Asia with Central Asia.

The Gwadar port, Syed said, would be the nearest warm water port, not only for China but also for the land-locked Central Asian states. "We want India to join this arrangement as well," said Syed.

Indians are "unlikely to accept" the offer as they are comfortable with the advantage that SAARC provides them, the report said.

"India used its influence in SAARC to isolate Pakistan when it announced that it would not attend the regional group's 19th summit, scheduled in Islamabad," the report said.

Citing continuous cross border terrorism by Pakistan, India had announced last month that "in the prevailing circumstances, the Indian government is unable to participate in the proposed Summit in Islamabad."

Besides India, four other SAARC members -- Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan -- had also pulled out of the summit.

"Among the eight SAARC nations, Afghanistan and Bangladesh are India's strong allies while Bhutan, surrounded by India from all sides, is too small to resist any move from New Delhi. The Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka have good ties with Pakistan, but they are not large enough to take on India," the report said.

The report cited that a senior diplomat had confirmed reports that Pakistan is actively seeking a new regional arrangement.

"Apparently, the showdown forced Pakistan to conclude that in its present shape, SAARC will always be dominated by India. That's why they are now talking about a greater South Asia," the diplomat was quoted as saying.

"Pakistan hopes that this new arrangement will give it more room to manoeuvre when India tries to force a decision on it," another diplomat said.

The report quoted diplomatic observers in Washington as saying that the proposed arrangement also suits China as it is also worried about India's rapidly growing influence in the region.

"They argue that China can play an important role in persuading Central Asian republics and Iran to join the new arrangement. But the observers warn that SAARC members will have little interest in supporting the idea," the report said.

"There is not much benefit for Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka in joining a land route far from their borders and Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have their own ports," it said.

The report stated thatt he member that is likely to get the most benefits from a greater South Asian alliance is Afghanistan, which is technically a land-locked Central Asian nation.

Any trade route that links South and Central Asian regions is good for Afghanistan, it noted.

"But observers believe that Afghanistan is too closely linked to India to join any arrangement that hurts India's interests. Afghanistan's presence in SAARC, however, justifies Pakistan's argument that Central Asian nations can be included in a greater South Asia.

Afghanistan applied for SAARC membership in 2006 and joined a year later, generating an interesting debate on the definition of South Asian identity because Afghanistan is a Central Asian country, the report said.

"But, as a South Asian diplomat pointed out, even if a greater South Asia became reality, there's no guarantee that its members would support Pakistan in its disputes with India," it said.

"Many Central Asian states have strong ties with India and Iran too has problems with Pakistan," the diplomat was quoted as saying.

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Rikaz
 - 
Wednesday, 12 Oct 2016

India should not have cancelled this conference....

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News Network
January 24,2020

Davos, Jan 24: Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan claimed that he met with a “brick wall” when he approached Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a peace proposal, soon after assuming office.

In an interview to Foreign Policy magazine on the sidelines of WEF 2020 here, Khan also said he told Modi that Pakistan will act firmly if it was given evidence of any involvement in the Pulwama terror attack, but India instead “bombed” Pakistan.

Tensions have escalated between the two countries, following India withdrawing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019. Even since, Khan has been trying to seek global intervention to de-escalate the tensions between the two countries.

On Thursday, India's External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar categorically ruled out any third party role on the Kashmir issue, asserting that any issue between the two countries should be resolved bilaterally.

In the interview, Khan said that he is a firm believer that military means are not a solution to ending conflicts. “After assuming office, I immediately reached out to Prime Minister Modi. I was amazed by the reaction I got, which was quite weird.

The subcontinent hosts the greatest number of poor people in the world, and the best way to fight poverty is to have a trading relationship between the two countries rather than spending money on arms. This is what I said to the Indian Prime Minister. But I was met by brick wall,” Khan said.

Khan took charge as Prime Minister in August 2018. Referring to the suicide attack in Pulwama, Khan said he immediately told Modi ,“if you can give us any actionable intelligence (that Pakistanis were involved), we will act on it. But rather than do so, they bombed us.”

Noting that the both countries are not close to conflict right now, Khan said that it is important that the UN and the US act.

When asked about US President Donald Trump’s close relationship with Modi, Khan said the relationship is understandable because India is a huge market. “My concern is not about the US-India relationship. My concern is the direction in which India is going,” Khan said.

Khan also sought to compare the events in India to what happened in Nazi Germany.

“Between 1930 and 1934, Germany went from a liberal democracy to a fascist, totalitarian, racist state. If you look at what is happening in India under the BJP in the last five years, look where it's heading, you'll see the danger. And you're talking about a huge country of 1.3 billion people that is nuclear-armed,” he said.

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News Network
March 23,2020

Singapore, Mar 23: Oil prices fell at the open in Asia on Monday after a trillion-dollar Senate proposal to help the coronavirus-hit American economy was defeated and death tolls soared across Europe and the US.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate initially tumbled more than three percent but then pulled back some ground to trade 1.5 percent lower, at $22 a barrel.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 4.9 percent to $25 a barrel.

Prices have fallen to multi-year lows in recent weeks as lockdowns and travel restrictions to fight the virus hit demand, and top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia engage in a price war.

The latest drop came after a trillion-dollar Senate proposal to rescue the US economy was defeated after receiving zero support from Democrats, and with five Republicans absent from the chamber because of virus-related quarantines.

The bill had proposed funding for American families, thousands of shuttered or suffering businesses and the nation's critically under-equipped hospitals.

Coronavirus deaths soared across Europe and the United States at the weekend despite heightened restrictions.

The death toll from the virus -- which has upended lives and closed businesses and schools across the planet -- surged to more than 14,300 Sunday, according to an AFP tally.

AxiCorp chief markets strategist Stephen Innes said that "total demand devastation" had set it.

"Oil markets collapsed out of the gate this morning as prices react... to stringent containment lockdown measures," he said.

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Agencies
July 3,2020

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

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