Pakistan seeks Saudi Arabia's help to tackle financial crisis

Agencies
October 17, 2018

New Delhi, Oct 17: Pakistan is seeking foreign aid to tackle its sagging economy and Saudi Arabia is one of the most important investors that it needs to get its hands on, opines Arif Rafiq, who authored 'The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Barriers and Impact'.

In an article, titled "What Is Saudi Arabia's Grand Plan for Pakistan?", published in The National Interest, Rafiq notes that the first foreign visit of Imran Khan after taking over as Pakistan's Prime Minister was to Saudi Arabia in a bid to woo Riyadh to invest in energy and mining in Pakistan.

"It appears that Islamabad asked Riyadh to park funds close to $10 billion with the State Bank of Pakistan-well before these investments achieve financial close-to shore up Pakistan's forex reserves in the interim," Rafiq wrote in the article published on October 16.

Terming Pakistan's claims and subsequent denials of inviting Saudi Arabia to join the China-Pakistan Economic Border (CPEC) as a strategic partner, as "Islamabad's scramble for dollars", the article states that talks between the two countries on several projects, including CPEC will, however, continue.

Islamabad has put forth five projects including the Reko Diq copper and gold mine in Balochistan, which amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. However, the author, who is also editor of the CPEC Wire newsletter, pointed out that last year Pakistan lost an arbitration case to the Tethyan Copper Company.

The World Bank's International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes ruled against Islamabad in relation to the unlawful denial of a mining lease for the Reko Diqproject in 2011. The tribunal is expected to determine Pakistan's liability this year, which might exceed 11 billion US dollar.

With Reko Diq's not-so-strategic location, that is, less than one hundred miles from Pakistan's border with Iran, the mine could be an easy target for the insurgent attacks.

"Resource nationalism is a driver of the ethnic Baloch insurgency, but it also receives support from regional states," Rafiq wrote.

Mentioning the suicide bombing incident by Balochistan Liberation Army, which attacked a convoy transporting Chinese engineers to the Saindak copper and gold mine, Rafiq noted that the attacker used an Iranian vehicle.

"Militants with several Baloch separatist groups combatting the Pakistani state are believed to be in Afghanistan or Iran. Projects linked to the Saudis would become targets in the same way Chinese projects have been over the past fifteen years," the article states.

Islamabad wants to rope in Riyadh for the second set of projects, which includes two government-owned operational regasified liquefied natural gas-fueled power plants in the Punjab province.

"Riyadh reportedly expressed interested in purchasing equity in the plants on a government-to-government basis, but that may not be legally possible. Instead, a Saudi power company, ACWA Power, could take part in open bidding for the plants. Sale of the plants could earn Islamabad much-needed cash, but there are geopolitical complications tied to that sale too. These power plants are fueled by liquified natural gas (LNG) from Qatar. Sale of the plants to a Saudi public or private entity would likely require an alternate source of LNG and could even impact Pakistan's fifteen-year LNG supply contract with Qatar," writes Rafiq.

The third investment project for Saudi Arabia in Pakistan is a Saudi Aramco refinery in Gwadar, the site of a Chinese-operated port and industrial zone. Just like Reko Diq mine, Gwadar shares a close proximity to Iran border.

The article goes on to mention that "Gwadar is a competitor to Iran's Chabahar port, where India will operate a terminal that will be used to bypass Pakistan to access Afghanistan and Central Asia. It is an end node for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which begins in Kashgar, located in China's Xinjiang region. Economic activity and investment in Gwadar have progressed tepidly when compared to other regional upstarts like Duqm in Oman and Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi, which have received significant inflows from China, with the potential to exceed $10 billion. Investment from a global energy giant like Saudi Aramco would catalyze other investments and boost port activity."

Rafiq also notes that even though a refinery in Gwadar would give the Saudis "an economic foothold in a strategic location" as it is right outside the Strait of Hormuz but close to Persian Gulf shipping lanes, and could lock Pakistan into purchasing Saudi crude, there are several flip sides to this investment.

One of the limitations to Saudis' investment is the memorandum of understanding signed by Saudi Aramco with a consortium of Indian state-owned oil companies for a $44 billion oil refinery and petrochemicals complex in India.

Rafiq also points that the domestic demands of Pakistan will be met if a refinery were to open in Gwadar and it would help Pakistan to save on import bills.

"Whether it's infrastructure development, energy trade, or defence hardware sales, China is ubiquitous across the Middle East and has been an equal opportunity partner to both Iran and its Gulf Arab adversaries. Iran is crucial to China's Silk Road Economic Belt. And the Gulf Arab states, especially the United Arab Emirates, could be critical to its Maritime Silk Road," reiterates Rafiq.

Talking about North-South gas pipeline project for which Pakistan is seeking investment from Saudi Arabia, the author observes, "Pakistan signed a government-to-government agreement with Russia to build the pipeline and supply the LNG. The two countries, however, have not come to agreement on pricing, and Rostec has struggled to find financing for the project, though reports last year indicated that China's Silk Road Fund could finance it. Russia may have difficulty supplying the LNG."

He asserted that Saudi's role in the project remains unclear. But Pakistan has also invited the Arab kingdom's investment in an open bidding for exploration in ten oil and gas blocs.

Noting that fuel makes up one of the most imported commodity in Pakistan, Rafiq says, "Reducing its dependence on imported fuels by ramping up domestic oil and gas exploration is critical for Pakistan to escape its boom-bust cycles that bring it to the IMF's doorstep every few years. Pakistan may actually have enough recoverable natural gas to not only meet domestic demand but also export it."

The article also notes that even though under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's influence, the strategic use of aid and investment has increased, there is an economic basis for Saudi investment in Pakistan.

The article further mentions that the FDI from China has been going up as against going down of net inflows from the Gulf countries. But Iran has not been able to make any investment in Pakistan.

Rafiq opines that, "For Pakistan, there is no escape from geopolitics, even when it comes to issues like connectivity and trade. And that is true in a global sense as well as the United States adopts a tougher posture toward the Belt and Road Initiative, digs deeper into a tariff war with China, and continues to use economic sanctions or lawfare to force Iran to capitulate."

In his article, the author asserted that Pakistan faces strong challenge to address its economic problems. "Calls for Pakistan to become a "normal" state that puts its economic interests above its strategic are outdated, reflecting a view of globalization that is now passe," concluded Arif Rafiq in the piece.

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News Network
July 20,2020

Paris, Jul 20: Two coronavirus vaccine candidates have proven safe for humans and produced strong immune reactions among patients involved in separate clinical trials, doctors said on Monday.

The first trial among more than 1,000 adults in Britain found that the vaccine induced "strong antibody and T cell immune responses" against the novel coronavirus.

A separate trial in China involving more than 500 people showed most had developed widespread antibody immune response.

The studies, published in The Lancet medical journal, constitute a major step on the road towards a COVID-19 vaccine that is effective and safe for widespread use.

The authors of the studies said that they encountered few adverse side-effects from the vaccine candidates.

However, they cautioned that more research was needed, particularly among older adults, who are disproportionately at risk of dying of COVID-19.

Co-author Sarah Gilbert from the University of Oxford said the results "hold promise".

"If our vaccine is effective, it is a promising option as these types of vaccine can be manufactured at large scale."

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News Network
April 2,2020

United Nations, Apr 2: The global economy could shrink by up to one per cent in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, a reversal from the previous forecast of 2.5 per cent growth, the UN has said, warning that it may contract even further if restrictions on the economic activities are extended without adequate fiscal responses.

The analysis by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) said the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting global supply chains and international trade. With nearly 100 countries closing national borders during the past month, the movement of people and tourism flows have come to a screeching halt.

"Millions of workers in these countries are facing the bleak prospect of losing their jobs. Governments are considering and rolling out large stimulus packages to avert a sharp downturn of their economies which could potentially plunge the global economy into a deep recession. In the worst-case scenario, the world economy could contract by 0.9 per cent in 2020," the DESA said, adding that the world economy had contracted by 1.7 per cent during the global financial crisis in 2009.

It added that the contraction could be even higher if governments fail to provide income support and help boost consumer spending.

The analysis noted that before the outbreak of the COVID-19, world output was expected to expand at a modest pace of 2.5 per cent in 2020, as reported in the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020.

Taking into account rapidly changing economic conditions, the UN DESA's World Economic Forecasting Model has estimated best and worst-case scenarios for global growth in 2020.

In the best-case scenario with moderate declines in private consumption, investment and exports and offsetting increases in government spending in the G-7 countries and China global growth would fall to 1.2 per cent in 2020.

"In the worst-case scenario, the global output would contract by 0.9 per cent instead of growing by 2.5 per cent in 2020," it said, adding that the scenario is based on demand-side shocks of different magnitudes to China, Japan, South Korea, the US and the EU, as well as an oil price decline of 50 per cent against our baseline of USD 61 per barrel.

The severity of the economic impact will largely depend on two factors - the duration of restrictions on the movement of people and economic activities in major economies; and the actual size and efficacy of fiscal responses to the crisis.

A well-designed fiscal stimulus package, prioritising health spending to contain the spread of the virus and providing income support to households most affected by the pandemic would help to minimise the likelihood of a deep economic recession, it said.

According to the forecast, lockdowns in Europe and North America are hitting the service sector hard, particularly industries that involve physical interactions such as retail trade, leisure and hospitality, recreation and transportation services. Collectively, such industries account for more than a quarter of all jobs in these economies.

The DESA said as businesses lose revenue, unemployment is likely to increase sharply, transforming a supply-side shock to a wider demand-side shock for the economy.

Against this backdrop, the UN-DESA is joining a chorus of voices across the UN system calling for well-designed fiscal stimulus packages which prioritize health spending and support households most affected by the pandemic.

Urgent and bold policy measures are needed, not only to contain the pandemic and save lives, but also to protect the most vulnerable in our societies from economic ruin and to sustain economic growth and financial stability, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said.

The analysis also warns that the adverse effects of prolonged economic restrictions in developed economies will soon spill over to developing countries via trade and investment channels.

A sharp decline in consumer spending in the European Union and the United States will reduce imports of consumer goods from developing countries.

Developing countries, particularly those dependent on tourism and commodity exports, face heightened economic risks. Global manufacturing production could contract significantly, and the plummeting number of travellers is likely to hurt the tourism sector in small island developing States, which employs millions of low-skilled workers, it said.

Meanwhile, the decline in commodity-related revenues and a reversal of capital flows are increasing the likelihood of debt distress for many nations. Governments may be forced to curtail public expenditure at a time when they need to ramp up spending to contain the pandemic and support consumption and investment.

UN Chief Economist and Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Elliot Harris said the collective goal must be a resilient recovery which puts the planet back on a sustainable track. We must not lose sight how it is affecting the most vulnerable population and what that means for sustainable development, he said.

The alarms raised by UN-DESA echo another report, released on March 31, in which UN experts issued a broad appeal for a large-scale, coordinated, comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP).

According to estimates by the Johns Hopkins University, confirmed coronavirus cases across the world now stand at over 932,600 and over 42,000 deaths.

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News Network
June 22,2020

The Hague, Jun 22: Finding inner peace is crucial for the armed forces and yoga is a beautiful way to find the balance, Dutch Defence Minister Ank Bijleveld has said, thanking India for the "wonderful gift" to the world.

Yoga has been gaining global popularity in recent years for the many benefits it has on one's physiology, psychology and spirituality.

Bijleveld participated in the online International Yoga Day celebrations organised by the Indian Embassy here on Sunday.

"The minister thanked India for the wonderful gift of yoga to the world," a statement issued by the embassy said on Monday.

She said finding inner peace is crucial for a man and woman in uniform and yoga is a beautiful way to find the balance, it noted.

Bijleveld said yoga has formed a part of the training for the Dutch armed forces for the last 15 years and there are 130 yoga instructors.

The representatives of the Dutch Army joined by the Dutch Police personnel demonstrated their yoga skills as part of the online celebrations, the statement said.

The sixth International Yoga Day celebrations was streamed to 145,000 followers of the embassy's Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube channels as well as on its website. It was also streamed on the website of the non-profit foundation Stichting International Yoga Day.

Ambassador of India to The Netherlands Venu Rajamony inaugurated the celebrations. This was followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's video message and 3D animated videos of yoga with him.

The event was participated by a host of prominent Dutch and Indian personalities, including Ambassadors of various countries based in The Hague.

Dutch actress Afke Reijenga, extreme sportsman Wim Hof -- popularly known as 'The Iceman' and singers Charlie Dee and Anouk Maas were amongst the Dutch celebrities who participated in the event, the statement said.

Messages and artistic contributions by spiritual leader Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, internationally acclaimed flautist Pandit Hariprasad Chaurasia, violin maestro L Subramaniam, playback singers Kavita Krishnamurthy and Vijay Prakash, chess grandmaster Viswanathan Anand and film stars Raadhika, Sarathkumar and Bhumika Chawla featured in the programme.

Cricketer Suresh Raina, tennis stars Ramesh Krishnan and Rohan Bopanna, yoga guru and artist Bharat Thakur, Olympic ice skater Vishwaraj Jadeja and Michelin star chef Vikas Khanna also featured in the event.

The programme included a Kathak recital on 'Ayush' choreographed by Dutch choreographer Leo Spreksel and performed by eminent Kathak dancers Hari and Chetna with Sirisha.

It also showcased Hollywood and Bollywood celebrities who have made yoga a part of their lives.

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