Petrol price may be hiked by Rs 5 per litre in 24-48 hours

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

New Delhi, Feb 5: Over five crore farmers were yet to get the third instalment of money under the Centre's ambitious PM-Kisan scheme, aimed at providing direct support of Rs 6,000 annually to them, according to the latest Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare data.

The total amount of the scheme, which came into effect on December 1, 2018, is to be paid in three equal instalments of Rs 2,000 every four months.

The data showed about 2.51 crore farmers have not got even the second instalment and 5.16 crore of them were yet to get the third instalment.

Over 9 crore farmers have registered themselves under the scheme between December 2018 and November 2019, it said.

Of these, 7.62 crore or 84 per cent of farmers have received the first instalment.

The money through the second instalment was given to nearly 6.5 crore farmers and the amount under the third instalment was given to 3.85 crore beneficiaries, according to the data received in response to an RTI query filed by this PTI journalist.

The agriculture ministry, in its response, gave three sets of data mentioning the benefits given to farmers under the scheme between December 2018 and November 2019.

It said 4.74 crore farmers were registered between December 2018 and March 2019.

Of them, 4.22 crore received the first instalment, 4.02 crore the second and 3.85 crore the third.

There was no mention why nearly 50 lakh, 70 lakh and 90 lakh registered farmers during this period did not get the first, second and third instalment respectively.

There was no registered beneficiary in West Bengal and Sikkim, hence no amount was disbursed during this period, according to the data.

Giving details of the 3.08 crore farmers registered between April and July last year, it said 2.66 crore and 2.47 crore beneficiaries have got their first and second instalments respectively.

The RTI reply did no mention why around 40 lakh and 61 lakh registered farmers during this period did not get their first and second instalment respectively.

"The beneficiaries are eligible for the instalment for the period in which he/she gets registered and subsequent periods, thereafter. Therefore, the third instalment is not due for the beneficiaries registered in the period April 2019-July 2019," the ministry said.

There was no registered beneficiary during this period in West Bengal, Punjab and Chandigarh and therefore nobody was paid first and second instalments.

The ministry said around 1.19 crore beneficiaries were registered between August and November 30, 2019, of these nearly 73.66 lakh farmers have been given the first instalment.

There was no mention of payment of first instalment to over 45 lakh eligible beneficiaries during the period.

"The beneficiaries are eligible for the instalment for the period in which he/she gets registered and subsequent periods, thereafter. Therefore, the second and third instalments are not due for the beneficiaries registered in the period August 2019 to November 2019," it said.

The ministry was asked to provide the total number of farmers, state-wise, and the amount received by them under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi or PM-Kisan scheme.

"PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme has been implemented from December 1, 2018. It is stated that PM-Kisan is a continuous and ongoing scheme, in which the financial benefits are transferred to the bank accounts of the identified beneficiaries as and when their correct and verified data is uploaded by the concerned states/union territories on PM-Kisan web portal," the ministry said in the RTI response vide its letter dated December 26, 2019.

The data of beneficiaries so uploaded by them undergoes a multi-level verification, including by banks, and only then the amount is released to the beneficiary, it said, adding that www.pmkisan.gov.in website can be accessed to get more details on the operational guidelines of the scheme.

According to the data updated on the website on February 3, around 8.82 crore farmers have been registered and 8.41 crore have received the first installment, 7.56 crore the second instalment, 6.19 crore the third and 3.03 crore have received the fourth installment.

In Assam, out of 16.97 lakh farmers registered during this period, 14.02 lakh got the first instalment, 13.72 lakh received the second and 9.87 lakh the third.

Of the 42.34 lakh registered beneficiaries in Maharashtra, 36.98 lakh got the first instalment, 31.53 lakh the second and 27.67 lakh got the third instalment.

As many as 23.83 lakh farmers in Kerala received their first instalment, 18.79 lakh got the second and 18.43 lakh the third. A total of 26.13 lakh beneficiaries were registered in the state between December 2018 and March 2019.

There was no beneficiary registered during the period from West Bengal, which has refused to implement the scheme, according to the ministry's response.

In Uttar Pradesh, nearly 9.57 lakh out of 19.64 lakh farmers have got the first instalment. In Gujarat, nearly 1.22 lakh out of 1.98 lakh registered farmers got the first instalment.

Around 9.78 lakh farmers out of the 17.18 lakh registered beneficiaries have received the first instalment in Madhya Pradesh. In Odisha, only 5,507 farmers out of 5.6 lakh registered farmers have got the first instalment, the ministry said.

None of the 7,326 farmers registered in Sikkim was paid the first instalment, according to the ministry's reply. In Delhi, 1,447 farmers out of 1,734 have got the first instalment.

Kochi, Jan 22: The Left front government in Kerala on Monday decided to inform the Centre it would not cooperate with the updation of the NPR, saying there were fears among the public about the process and it has the "Constitutional responsibility" to alleviate them and ensure law and order.

A special cabinet meeting, chaired by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan here, decided to inform the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Union Home Ministry that it was unable to cooperate with anything with regard to the updation of the NPR.

"The decision was taken as it was the Constitutional responsibility of the government to alleviate the fears of general public and ensure law and order situation in the state," a Chief Minister's Office release said.

However, the state would fully cooperate with the census procedures, it said.

The LDF government, which has been on a warpath against the Centre over the Citizenship Amendment Act, has last month stayed all activities related to updation of NPR, considering 'apprehensions' of public that it would lead to NRC in the wake of the controversial CAA.

"As the NPR is a process that leads to the National Register of Citizens (NRC), there is a sense of fear among the people that its implementation could lead to widespread insecurity", the CMO release said on Monday.

The experience of the state which had already compiled the NRC was an example for this, it added, in apparent reference to Assam.

Kerala had already stopped all procedures regarding the NPR updation, the release said adding there was also a report of the state police that the if the government went ahead with the procedures, it would adversely impact the law and order situation.

The district collectors have also informed the government that the Census procedures would be affected if the updation of the NPR was done along with it, the CMO release said.

The CPI(M)-led LDF government had recently convened a meeting of political parties and socio-religious organisations here on December 29 in the wake of the concerns among people in various stratas of the society, it said.

A special assembly session was convened and a resolution was passed requesting the Centre not to implement the CAA and the government had also approached the apex court against the law, it added.