Pinarayi govt to cut taxes on petrol, diesel to reduce retail prices in Kerala

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Ahmedabad, Nay 19: Over 2,200 Indian nationals stranded in the UK due to the coronavirus related international travel restrictions have been flown back home during the first phase of India's biggest ever repatriation exercise, according to official figures.

Since the first special Air India flight took off from London’s Heathrow Airport for Mumbai on May 8, there have been eight routes to different Indian cities from the UK for Indian students and tourists.

Indian nationals were flown home to the cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai and Ahmedabad.

“We have facilitated repatriation of 2,288 Indians stranded in the UK through eight Air India flights till 17 May. Vande Bharat Mission continues to get Indians home,” said the Indian High Commission in London.

The Vande Bharat Mission is India’s biggest ever repatriation exercise to bring back Indians from abroad who are unable to travel home due to COVID-19 related international travel restrictions.

As the second phase of the repatriation process gets underway, retired Indian High Commissioner to the UK Ruchi Ghanashyam will be among the Indians flying back to New Delhi on Thursday.

“It has been such a hectic period, but I hope to return to the UK to say goodbyes in person sometime in the future,” Ghanashyam said during a virtual farewell organised by the Indian Journalists’ Association (IJA UK) on Monday.

As the packed flights take off daily, there are some still desperately waiting their turn, including those wanting to fly to some cities that are yet to be scheduled, including Kolkata.

“I have two young daughters, elderly parents, and a wife back at home. There is no way to return to Kolkata. I am worried for my parents,” says Suvendu, who came to the UK for work but recently lost his job.

“I am really surprised there are no Kolkata flights yet, but I am hoping they will be announced in the future,” adds Dr Arpita Ray, whose father needs to fly back home.

Another group waiting their turn to return home to their families in India includes students in the Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) category, which remains suspended in India’s extended COVID-19 lockdown.

According to the regulations issued by the Indian government last month and updated last week, visas of foreign nationals and OCI cards, that provide visa-free travel privileges to the people of Indian-origin, have been suspended as part of the new international travel restrictions following the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Our plight is no different from the struggles being faced by Indian students who hold Indian passports – India is home for all us,” says Tridip, an undergraduate at SOAS University of London.

“Yes, air travel at this point of time may be a risk but we are of course ready to take all precautionary measures and undergo the mandatory quarantine period upon arrival in India," adds the 18-year-old.

“Having lived in India for the greater part of my life, India is home to me as much as it is to an Indian citizen, and just as any Indian citizen wishes for the comfort of home and family, so do I. I can only hope that the government reviews its policy on OCI holders and appeal to them to include us in their repatriation plans," says Atulit, an under-graduate student at Imperial College London.

Bianta, a student at Bangor University in Wales, adds: “Along with all of the mental stress, financially the UK is too expensive. In the coming weeks my rental agreement will expire, after which I will have nowhere to go.

“I cannot continue funding myself here in the UK as I only planned to be here till May marking the end of my course. Please help us get home. The colour of my passport does not define where my home is."

As all commercial international flights continue to be grounded, the second phase of the Vande Bharat Mission with a total of 149 flights is aimed at bringing back Indians from 40 countries. On landing in India, these travellers have a 14-day quarantine requirement at venues organised by the respective state governments. 

Bhopal, Mar 13: The Madhya Pradesh Economic Offences Wing (EOW) on Thursday decided to verify facts afresh in a complaint against former Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia and his family, in which they are accused of falsifying a property document while selling land.

The development came after Mr Scindia quit the Congress and joined the BJP on Wednesday. 22 MLAs who belong to his camp also resigned, threatening the survival of the Kamal Nath government in the state.

"Yes, an order has been given for re-verification of facts in the complaint filed by Surendra Shrivastava," an Economic Offences Wing official told PTI.

An EOW release said Mr Shrivastava on Thursday filed a new complaint against Mr Scindia and his family, alleging that by falsifying a registry document, they sold him a piece of land at Mahalgaon which was smaller by 6,000 sq feet than the original agreement in 2009.

He had lodged the complaint first on March 26, 2014. But it was investigated and closed in 2018, the EOW official said. "As he again petitioned us today, we will re-verify the facts," the officer said.

Jyotiraditya Scindia's close aide Pankaj Chaturvedi alleged that it was political vendetta.

"The case had been closed for want of evidence. Now for vengeance, it is being reopened. We have full faith in the Constitution and law. We will get justice and Kamal Nath government a befitting reply," Mr Chaturvedi said.