PM Modi's cashflow woes just got more bearable thanks to RBI switch

Agencies
December 18, 2018

Dec 18: Facing cash flow problems just months before a national election, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could have a savior in the country’s new central bank chief.

India’s spending is exceeding its revenue, leaving the government looking for funds to help an ailing banking sector -- key to boosting loans and investment and creating jobs. Finance ministry officials estimate the Reserve Bank of India has at least 3.6 trillion rupees ($50 billion) more capital than it needs, which they say can be used to help bolster the banks.

“It will be difficult for the government to meet its targets absent substantial new revenue from asset sales or as a transfer from the RBI,” said Sasha Riser-Kositsky, an analyst with Eurasia Group. “The government could also seek to defer some payments into the next fiscal year in order to paper over the deficit.”

Keeping the economic engines firing ahead of a general election next year is crucial for Modi, whose party was rocked by defeats in key regional elections last week. While using the RBI’s surplus capital to support the banks was a point of contention with former governor Urjit Patel, it may not be the case now.

Shaktikanta Das, a former bureaucrat picked by Modi to steer the RBI after Patel’s exit, is open to hearing the government out on its concerns about the economy -- whose growth slowed in the three months through September. Getting the RBI to share its capital will help the government boost growth without missing its budget deficit goal of 3.3 percent of gross domestic product.

While the government has denied having asked for any specific amount from the RBI, the central bank has agreed to form an expert panel to decide on the appropriate level of reserves it should hold.

The government plans to infuse about 420 billion rupees ($5.9 billion) to recapitalize some state-run banks this month. It also has to pay for a health care program and purchase crops from farmers at guaranteed prices.

Everyone agrees that more needs to be done to recapitalize state-run banks, but not all approve of how the administration is going about it. The government’s increasing involvement in the central bank’s affairs could undermine gains in the country’s banking system, S&P Global Ratings said.

Still, with the fiscal deficit having touched 104 percent of budget estimate in October and revenue from tax and asset sales trailing estimates, the RBI may be Modi’s best hope of swaying voters. Here’s why:

Revenue

With total revenue in April to October accounting for 45.7 percent of the full-year target and lower than last year’s 48.1 percent, pressure is mounting on tax authorities and the asset sales department to make good on goals.

Monthly collections of the new goods and services tax have trailed the 1.1 trillion rupees target, and the finance ministry is banking on direct tax to make up for the shortfall. Sales of stakes in state-run companies have also lagged, with only 42 percent of the targeted revenue realized so far.

Expenditure

Spending in April to October was 59.6 percent of the budget estimate. A program to provide guaranteed prices to farmers for crops is expected to add to the food subsidy bill, while fuel subsidy has risen on higher oil prices.

The cost of a 120 billion-rupee health care program, which kicked off in September, is expected to be reflected in the fiscal second half.

Meeting budget goals may require cutting expenditure, but that may be easier said than done in an election year.

"With an election on the horizon, I suspect sparking a bit more growth will take precedence over meeting fiscal obligations," said Richard Rossow, an Indian policy expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Modi thinks he has a very real chance at serving a second term, so he may moderate any inclination to break the bank too severely."

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Agencies
August 3,2020

New Delhi, Aug 3: Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani on Monday thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the timely supply of food and medical assistance to meet the requirement in Afghanistan.

During their telephonic conversation, PM Modi also reiterated India's commitment to the people of Afghanistan in their quest for a peaceful, prosperous and inclusive Afghanistan, the Prime Minister's Office said in a statement on Monday.

The two leaders also exchanged views on the evolving security situation in the region and other areas of mutual bilateral interest.
Both leaders also exchanged greetings on Eid-Al-Adha. 

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News Network
February 28,2020

Thane, Feb 28: Former BJP MLA Narendra Mehta was on Friday charged for allegedly  raping and harassing a woman corporator in Bhayandar, which is in the Thane district near Mumbai, on Friday, police said.

His associate Sanjay Tharthare has also been charged in the case, they said.

The district rural police lodged an FIR against Narendra Mehta, who resigned from the BJP three days ago, and his associate, an official from the Mira-Bhayandar police station said.

No arrest has been made till now.

A video of the corporator purportedly speaking about the alleged harassment and abuse she suffered at the hands of Narendra Mehta went viral on social media two days ago, the official said.

The corporator has alleged that the abuse is going on since 1999 and her family is facing threats from him, he added.

Narendra Mehta and Sanjay Tharthare were charged under relevant section of the Indian Penal Code for rape and other relevant provisions of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, 1989, he said.

Meanwhile, Shiv Sena MLA Pratap Sarnaik demanded the immediate arrest of Narendra Mehta, saying it is a "tragedy" that the BJP, which raises the issue of women's safety in the state, has not taken any action against its leader.

"Law and order issue will arise if such a person (facing rape and harassment charges) roams freely. He should be arrested as soon as possible," Mr Sarnaik said.

The Thane legislator also termed Narendra Mehta as "Marathi-hater" and alleged that he had once questioned Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray's culture.

"I wonder why the BJP did not take strict action against Mehta, it needs to introspect," Mr Sarnaik said.

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Agencies
May 4,2020

Washington, May 4: Anxious for an economic recovery, President Donald Trump fielded Americans' questions about decisions by some states to allow nonessential businesses to reopen while other states are on virtual lockdown due to the coronavirus.

After more than a month of being cooped up at the White House, Trump returned from a weekend at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland and participated in a “virtual” town hall, hosted Sunday night by Fox News Channel, from inside the Lincoln Memorial.

He pushed for an economic reopening, one his advisers believe will be essential for his reelection chances this November.

“We have to get it back open safely but as quickly as possible," Trump said.

The president acknowledged fear on both sides of the issue, some Americans worried about getting sick while others are concerned about losing jobs.

Though the administration's handling of the pandemic, particularly its ability to conduct widespread testing, has come under fierce scrutiny, the president defended the response and said the nation was ready to begin reopening.

“I'll tell you one thing. We did the right thing and I really believe we saved a million and a half lives,” the president said.

But he also broke with the assessment of his senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, saying it was “too soon to say" if the federal government was overseeing a “success story."

Trump's impatience also flashed. While noting that states would go at their own pace in returning to normal, with ones harder hit by the coronavirus going slower, he said that “some states frankly I think aren't going fast enough" and singled out Virginia, which has a Democratic governor and legislature.

And he urged the nation's schools and universities to return to classes this fall.

But many public health experts believe that cannot be done safely until a vaccine is developed.

Trump declared Sunday that he believed one could be available by year's end although his own pandemic task force has predicated it could be another 18 months.

Federal guidelines that encouraged people to stay at home and practice social distancing expired late last week.

Debate continued over moves by governors to start reopening state economies that tanked after shopping malls, salons and other nonessential businesses were ordered closed in attempt to slow a virus that has killed more than 66,000 Americans, according to a tally of reported deaths by Johns Hopkins University.

The U.S. economy has suffered, shrinking at a 4.8 per cent annual rate from January through March, the government estimated last week. It was the sharpest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.

Roughly 30.3 million people have filed for unemployment aid in the six weeks since the outbreak forced employers to shut down and slash their workforces. It was the worst string of layoffs on record.

Larry Kudlow, Trump's top economic adviser, on Sunday predicted a “spectacular 2021” — with “the right set of policies” — on top of a rebound from July through December of this year.

He said on CNN's "State of the Union" that the administration would "pause” to review the effectiveness of trillions in economic relief spending before making any decision on whether additional aid is needed.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Thursday that state and local governments are seeking up to USD 1 trillion for coronavirus costs, The Senate planned to reopen Monday, despite the Washington area's continued status as a virus hot spot and with the region still under stay-at-home orders.

The House remains shuttered. The pandemic is forcing big changes at the tradition-bound Supreme Court: The justices will hear arguments, beginning Monday, by telephone for the first time since Alexander Graham Bell patented his invention in 1876.

Congressional Republicans are resisting calls by Democrats for emergency spending for states and local governments whose revenue streams all but dried up in recent weeks.

The GOP is counting on the country's reopening and the rebound promised by Trump as their best hope to forestall another big round of virus aid.

The leaders of California and Michigan are among governors under public pressure over lockdowns still in effect while states such as Florida, Georgia and Ohio are reopening.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, said Sunday that the armed protesters who demonstrated inside her state's Capitol “depicted some of the worst racism” and “awful parts” of US history by showing up with Confederate flags, nooses and swastikas.

Trump had tweeted “LIBERATE” and named Michigan and other states in mid-April. In a new tweet Friday, he urged Whitmer to “make a deal” with the protesters. “These are very good people, but they are angry.

They want their lives back again, safely!” Trump said.

Despite the opposition of Michigan's Republican-controlled Legislature, Whitmer has extended a state of emergency declaration and directed most businesses statewide to remain closed.

Some people participating in other public protests across the US have not kept their distance from one another and have rallied without masks, not heeding public health recommendations.

Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, called that behavior “devastatingly worrisome.”

She said people will feel guilty for the rest of their lives if they end up infected and unwittingly spread the virus to vulnerable family members.

“We need to protect each other at the same time we're voice our discontent,” she told CNN's “State of the Union.”

An overwhelming majority of Americans support stay-at-home orders and other efforts to slow the virus' spread, according to a recent survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Asked about states that are reopening before they meet benchmarks laid out in federal guidelines she helped write, Birx said the guidelines “are a pretty firm policy of what we think is important from a public health standpoint.”

She added that she and others have made it clear that people must continue practising social distancing, “scrupulous” hand washing and other measures to protect themselves and others.

Fox News Channel said it asked viewers to submit questions about reopening the country on the network's Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts for a chance to appear on the rare broadcast from the Lincoln Memorial. Trump spoke from the memorial's steps last July Fourth.

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