PM Modi’s goal of a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is at risk

Agencies
September 20, 2019

Sept 20: India’s slowdown and a simmering shadow banking crisis is putting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of crafting a $5 trillion economy by 2025 at risk.

The nation entered 2019 as the world’s sixth-biggest economy poised to become the fifth. Instead, it has slipped a notch to seventh place as a collapse in consumption slowed gross domestic product growth to the weakest in six years. External shocks from trade wars to surging oil prices are exacerbating that pain.

Troubled by the grim prospects, the central bank has lowered interest rates to a nine-year low and Governor Shaktikanta Das wants other stakeholders -- from the government to banks to the private sector -- to step up. But with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman facing lower revenue prospects that threaten her budget gap goal, the heavy lifting on stimulus appears to lie with the Reserve Bank of India.

Das may be able to ease a financing squeeze, but it’ll take delivery on big bang reforms to unlock the productivity gains needed to power the economy toward Modi’s goals. While his return to office this year with a bigger mandate stoked expectations among investors for bolder reforms, that hope is fading 100 days into his second term as global investors head for the exit.

Unemployment at a 45-year high has hurt demand for everything from soaps to 7-cent cookies, while car sales have slumped the most on record and new investments have been sluggish as a lingering shadow banking crisis curbs lending. That’s caused growth to decelerate for five straight quarters to 5% in the three months to June -- the weakest since March 2013 -- and well below the 8% plus annual expansion needed to achieve the goal.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“We expect the first-term reforms of the Modi government, including a clean-up of the banking sector, a new bankruptcy law, and a new indirect tax structure, to mark a transition to a faster-growth trajectory. These should lift potential growth to 8% from around 7.4% now. At the same time, we expect a recovery in actual growth, picking up from an estimated 6.2% in fiscal 2020 to 8.5% in fiscal 2025."

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

“For the economy to reach $5 trillion, it will take the types of reform that were long promised: massive reductions in regulations, streamlining of labor laws, privatization of state entities, investments in infrastructure," said Vivek Wadhwa, a distinguished fellow and professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s College of Engineering at Silicon Valley. “Yet little happened," he said.

That laundry list needs to be implemented quickly as India, according to most economists, faces a structural as well as a cyclical slowdown. New measures announced so far by the government to bolster growth are seen falling short of addressing the pain points.

Underpinning the target of $5 trillion is the government’s forecast of 8% average GDP growth, according to Shilan Shah, senior India economist with Capital Economics in Singapore. “That is setting a very high bar," he said.

Oil Prices

Volatile oil prices following the attack on an oil facility in Saudi Arabia are an added risk to the economy that imports 80% of its crude oil needs, while slowing global growth spawned by trade tensions have subdued demand for its exports.

“There is clearly a demand recession going on right now," said Girija Pande, chairman of Singapore-based Apex Avalon Consulting Pte. and a former CEO of Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. “One has to boost aggregate demand and one of the ways of doing that is by lowering rates."

Another way is by attracting large dollops of foreign investments into fresh projects and be part of trading blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. While India has jumped in the ease of doing business rankings, it has not been enough to attract significant foreign capital to become part of global supply chains despite some initial hopes that businesses might relocate to shield themselves from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

While Modi has seen through far-reaching reforms -- giving RBI an inflation targeting mandate, introducing a nationwide consumption tax and passing an insolvency law -- in his first term, he’s fallen short of overhauling the banking system. Besides, large parts of the economy are yet to recover from his decision to ban high-value bills in 2016.

“Investors should await clarity in the coming months on what steps the government will take to ease labor laws, reform the banking system and privatize state-owned enterprises," said Amitabh Dubey, an analyst at TS Lombard.

“But at the same time they should be prepared for a continuation of past policies: namely, a mix of reform, state control and populism."

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News Network
January 23,2020

Mumbai, Jan 23: Rashmi Sahijwala never expected to start working at the age of 59, let alone join India’s gig economy—now she is part of an army of housewives turning their homes into “cloud kitchens” to feed time-starved millennials.

Asia’s third-largest economy is battling a slowdown so sharp it is creating a drag on global growth, the International Monetary Fund said Monday, but there are some bright spots.

The gig economy, aided by cheap mobile data and abundant labour, has flourished in India, opening up new markets across the vast nation.

Although Indian women have long battled for access to education and employment opportunities, the biggest hurdle for many is convincing conservative families to let them leave home.

But new apps like Curryful, Homefoodi, and Nanighar are tapping the skills of housewives to slice, dice and prepare meals for hungry urbanites from the comfort of their homes.

The so-called cloud kitchens—restaurants that have no physical presence and a delivery-only model—are rising in popularity as there is a boom in food delivery apps such as Swiggy and Zomato.

“We want to be the Uber of home-cooked food,” said Ben Mathew, who launched Curryful in 2018, convinced that housewives were a huge untapped resource.

His company—which employs five people for the app’s daily operations—works with 52 women and three men, and the 31-year-old web entrepreneur hopes to get one million female chefs on-board by 2022.

“We usually train them in processes of sanitisation, cooking, prep time and packaging... and then launch them on the platform,” Mathew told news agency.

One of the first housewives to join Curryful in November 2018 shortly after its launch, Sahijwala was initially apprehensive, despite having four decades of experience in the kitchen.

But backed by her children, including her son who gave her regular feedback about her proposed dishes, she took the plunge.

Since then, she’s undergone a crash course in how to run a business, from creating weekly menus to buying supplies from wholesale markets to cut costs.

The learning curve was steep and Sahijwala switched from cooking everything from scratch to preparing curries and batters for breads in advance to save time and limit leftovers.

She even bought a massive freezer to store fruits and vegetables despite her husband’s reservations about the cost.

“I told him that I am a professional now,” she told news agency.

‘Internet restaurants’

Kallol Banerjee, co-founder of Rebel Foods which runs 301 cloud kitchens backing up 2,200 “internet restaurants”, was among the first entrepreneurs to embrace the concept in 2012.

“We could do more brands from one kitchen and cater to different customer requirements at multiple price points,” Banerjee told AFP.

The chefs buy the ingredients, supply the cookware and pay the utility bills.

The apps—which make their money through charging commission, such as more than 18 percent per order for Curryful—offer training and supply the chefs with containers and bags to pack the food in.

Curryful chef Chand Vyas, 55, spent years trying to set up a lunch delivery business but finally gave up after failing to compete with dabbawalas, Mumbai’s famously efficient food porters.

Today Vyas works seven hours a day, five days a week in her kitchen, serving up a bevy of Indian vegetarian staples, from street food favourites to lentils and rice according to the app’s weekly set menus.

“I don’t understand marketing or how to run a business but I know how to cook. So, the current partnership helps me focus on just that while Curryful takes care of the rest,” Vyas told AFP.

She pockets up to $150 (Rs 10,000 approx) a month after accounting for the commissions and costs, but hopes to earn more as the orders increase.

In contrast, a chef at a bricks-and-mortar restaurant takes home a monthly wage of between $300 (Rs 20,000 approx) and $1,000 (Rs 70,000) approx for working six days a week.

With India’s cloud kitchen sector expected to reach $1.05 billion by 2023, according to data platform Inc42, other companies are also keen to get a slice of the action.

Swiggy, for example, has invested 2.5 billion rupees ($35.3 million) in opening 1,000 cloud kitchens across the nation.

Back in her Mumbai kitchen, Sahijwala is elated to have embarked on a career at an age when her contemporaries are eyeing retirement.

Over the past year, she has seen her profit grow to $200 (Rs 15,000 approx) a month, but more importantly, she said, “My passion has finally found an outlet.

“I am just glad life has given me this chance.”

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News Network
January 22,2020

New Delhi, Jan 22: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has assets worth Rs 3.4 crore, an increase of Rs 1.3 crore from 2015, according to his election affidavit.

Kejriwal's total assets were worth Rs 2.1 crore in 2015.

The cash and fixed deposits of Kejriwal's wife Sunita Kejriwal increased from Rs 15 lakh in 2015 to Rs 57 lakh in 2020.

A party functionary said Rs 32 lakh worth cash and fixed deposits have been received by Sunita Kejriwal as voluntary retirement benefits while the rest are savings.

The cash and fixed deposits of the chief minister increased from Rs 2.26 lakh in 2015 to Rs 9.65 lakh in 2020.

There was no change in the value of immovable assets of his wife while Kejriwal's immovable assets' worth increased from Rs 92 lakh to Rs 177 lakh.

The party functionaries said increase in Kejriwal's immovable assets' worth is due to the increased valuation of the same asset as in 2015.

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News Network
March 4,2020

New Delhi, Mar 4: The Supreme Court on Wednesday revoked the ban of cryptocurrency imposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 2018.

Pronouncing the verdict, the three-judge bench of the apex court said the ban was 'disproportionate'.

The bench included Justice Rohinton Fali Nariman, Justice S Ravindra Bhat and Justice V Ramasubramanian.

The Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), whose members include cryptocurrency exchanges, and others had approached the top court objecting to a 2018 RBI circular directing regulated entities to not deal with cryptocurrencies.

Advocate Ashim Sood, appearing for IAMI, submitted that Reserve Bank of India lacked jurisdiction to forbid dealings in cryptocurrencies. The blanket ban was based on an erroneous understanding that it was impossible to regulate cryptocurrencies, Sood submitted.

The petitioners had argued that the RBI's circular taking cryptocurrencies out of the banking channels would deplete the ability of law enforcement agencies to regulate illegal activities in the industry.

IAMAI had claimed the move of RBI had effectively banned legitimate business activity via the virtual currencies (VCs).

The RBI on April 6, 2018, had issued the circular that barred RBI-regulated entities from "providing any service in relation to virtual currencies, including those of transfer or receipt of money in accounts relating to the purchase or sale of virtual currencies".

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