Population by Religions in times to come

[email protected] (Ram Puniyani)
April 30, 2015

The PEW Research Center has released a report (2nd April 2015); which gives the projections of populations in times to come. It says that in India the population of Hindus will fall down from present 79.5 % to 76.7% and the Muslim population will rise up to 18% by 2050. The population of Indian Muslims will overtake the population of Muslims in Indonesia and Pakistan. Disturbed by these projections Sadhvi Prachi advised that Hindu women should produce 40 children each while Sakshi Maharaj, BJP member of Parliament advised four children each for Hindu women. Time and over again many a leaders from Right wing Hindu formations have been advising the Hindu women to serve the 'nation' by producing more children, and interestingly the celibate ones' amongst these advisers are more vociferous on these matters!

Given that these projections may be close to the reality, how do we explain the rise of Muslim population in India, is it due to Islam? If it is due to Islam than logically the countries ahead of India (Pakistan and Indonesia) should keep the same pace and remain ahead of India as far as population of Muslims is concerned. How come the number of Muslims in India will overtake the number in other countries, if Islam is the reason? Simply this totally smashes the argument of religion being the determining factor in matters related to population growth. Within India itself; one obverses that there are serious regional differences between areas like Malabar Coast of Kerala and the UP-Bihar region. Even in the strife torn Kashmir valley one noted in earlier decades that the percentage of increase of Hindu population was more than that of the Muslims in the valley.

Religions PopulationThe second argument is that Muslims don't take to family planning as their religion prohibits them so this increase. In his book 'Family planning and legacy of Islam' Islamic scholar A R Omran of Cairo dispels the myth that Islam is inherently against family planning, as per him there is no text in Koran prohibiting prevention of pregnancy. In Islamic countries like Turkey and Indonesia family planning methods are quite popular. In Turkey for example 63% of the population in the reproductive age group uses contraception and in Indonesia the figure is 48%. In India the number of Muslim couples in the child bearing age practicing family planning in 1970 was 9% (Hindus 14%) and in 1980, 22.5% (Hindus 36.1%) (Operation Research Group: Baroda 1981) Thus the number of additional Muslims taking to family planning is keeping pace with the number of Hindus doing the same.

Dr Rakesh Basant, an economist with IIM Ahmadabad and a mem¬ber of the Sachar committee, points out that at present "there is (only) a 0.7-point difference between the Muslim and the average fertility rates. While the average fertility rate is 2.9, for Muslims it is 3.6." He emphasizes that 37 per cent of Muslims use contraceptives against a national average of 48 per cent. Therefore, contraceptive usage is about 10 percentage points lower among Muslims than the average. However, there are significant regional variations. The report observes, contraceptive usage goes up with education and development and all communities benefit from such changes.

So where do we look for answer to this puzzle of Muslim population rising more than that of Hindus in India? Just let's have a look at the regional differences in the population growth of Hindus in India. Here the gross observation is that in the more literate Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala the rise in the percentage of even the Hindu population is less than the percentage rise of Hindu population in the northern states like UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. As far as the figures in India are concerned large number of Muslims lives in the ghetto like situations or in the outskirts of cities, and is on the lower side of the income profile. As the much discussed Sachar committee report points out the marginalization of Muslim minorities in employment and major business opportunities has led them to a condition of economic downslide or stagnation at best, not keeping pace with the overall economic growth which the country has witnessed.

This lack of equity has worsened due to the communal violence, which has led to their insecurity and ghettoisation. These two phenomenons have made them vulnerable and they have become more susceptible to the influence of conservative maulanas advising against the family planning etc.

The large section of Indian Muslims are coming from the background of untouchable Shudras, whose economic starting point has been very low, this added on by the lack of affirmative action for them and the physical insecurity has led to the present situation where the less educated men and women from this community tend to have more number of children. In contrast the percentage of Hindus in Pakistan has declined for very different reasons, the major decline being due to the mass migration away from Pakistan and Bangla Desh in the aftermath of partition. There percentage is very small, though they also face similar persecution in those countries, the comparisons are difficult. Interestingly in South Asia, the communal problem does persist, and religious majority in India suffers as minority in Pakistan and Bangla Desh.

At personal note while I was working in IIT Mumbai for long years, I could see that the number of children per family is more as you go down from the professors to the peons and sweepers. Also roughly those living in Mumbai slums have higher number of children, irrespective of their religion.

The situations in different countries in sub continent are not comparable on many counts. What is needed is an empathetic attitude to the deprived communities, going beyond the obvious and to solve the problem in right earnest.

--

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Agencies
March 8,2020

Consumer watchdog Which? has claimed that more than one billion Android phones and tablets are vulnerable to hackers as they no longer supported by security updates.

According to the research report, the most at-risk phones are any that run Android 4 or older and those smartphones running Android 7.0 which can not be updated are also at risk.

Based on data from Google analysed by Which?, two in five android device users around the world are no longer receiving the important updates. Currently, those devices are unlikely to have issues, but the lack of security leaves them open to attack.

"It is very concerning that expensive Android devices have such a short shelf life before they lose security support, leaving millions of users at risk of serious consequences if they fall victim to hackers," Kate Bevan editor Which? said in a statement.

"Google and phone manufacturers need to be upfront about security updates with clear information about how long they will last and what customers should do when they run out. The government must also push ahead with planned legislation to ensure manufacturers are far more transparent about security updates for smart devices and their impact on consumers," Kate added.

Android phone released around 2012 or earlier, including popular models like the Samsung Galaxy S3 and Sony Xperia S, are particularly at risk to hackers.

Which? has made suggestions to Android users on what to consider if they have an older phone that may be at risk.

Any Android device which is more than two years old, check whether it can be updated to a newer version of the operating system. If it is on an earlier version than Android 7.0 Nougat, try to update via Settings> System>Advanced System update.

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A user also need to be careful about downloading apps outside the Google Play store and should also install a mobile anti-virus via an app.

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Agencies
July 24,2020

Pune, Jul 24: Agile and dexterous, 85-year-old Shantabai Pawar wields sticks with absolute ease as she displays 'lathi-kathi' on the streets of Pune.

A video of her, displaying her skills in the Indian martial art form for livelihood, has gone viral on social media.

Pawar told media persons that she learnt the art form when she was only eight and has been practising it since then. The ancient martial art s believed to be linked to Dombari community, a nomadic tribe in Maharashtra.

"I have been pursuing the art of lathi-kathi since I was eight. I have never left it. It is part of me and it is an honour to practice it. My father taught me this. He taught me to work hard," Pawar told media persons.

In the video, the sari-clad octogenarian takes a warrior-like stride and effortlessly rotates a stick several times in a second in her hand and around her head and then does it with two sticks together with a smile on her face. She also tosses a stick in the air and catches it with ease.

The assembled gathering is impressed and enthused.

"People come and say, 'Well done Daadi!' I practice it to earn money for my children and grandchildren," she said.

Pawar leaves her home in the morning in the conditions created by coronavirus and performs the art form on roads and streets.

"I go to various areas to perform the art form and people give money," she said.

The artiste also uses thali and stick to gather the attention of people as most of them are indoors due to conditions created by COVID-19.

Senior citizens have been advised against venturing out due to their greater susceptibility to coronavirus but Pawar said she is not afraid to step out.

"People do advise me to not go out due to fear of COVID-19 but I am not scared. Whenever I step out, I pray to my God and he has kept me safe so far," she said.

Aishwarya Kale, a dancer and the person who uploaded the video on social media, said that it is "only an artist who can understand what help another artist needs".

"I was in that area shopping for some items and it was then I saw her performing and thought that I should film her and upload her video on social media. But I never thought that the video would go viral and she would receive financial help not just from people in the country but overseas as well," Kale told media persons.

"She is now getting honour for her craft that she couldn't get in the last 85 years. I feel good that through my small video, her art form has become viral," she added. 

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News Network
June 18,2020

Beijing, Jun 18:  Besides washing hands and wearing masks, it is also important to close the toilet lid before flushing to contain the spread of COVID-19, as per a new study.

According to a new study cited by The Washington Post, scientists who simulated toilet water and airflows, have found that flushing a toilet can generate a plume of virus-containing aerosol particles that is widespread and can linger in the air long enough to be inhaled by others. The novel coronavirus has been found in the faeces of COVID-19 patients, but it remains unknown whether such clouds could contain enough virus to infect a person.

"Flushing will lift the virus up from the toilet bowl," co-author Ji-Xiang Wang, who researches fluids at Yangzhou University in Yangzhou, China, said in an email. Wang stressed that bathroom users "need to close the lid first and then trigger the flushing process" and wash hands properly if the closure is not possible. As one flushes the toilet with the lids open, bits of faecal matter swish around so violently that they can be propelled into the air, become aerosolised and then settle on the surroundings.

Experts call it the "toilet plume".Age-old studies have been made to understand the potential for airborne transmission of infectious disease via sewage, and the toilet plume's role. Scientists who have seeded toilet bowls with bacteria and viruses have found contamination of seats, flush handles, bathroom floors and nearby surfaces. This is one reason we are told to wash our hands after visiting the toilet. Public bathrooms are well known to contribute to the spread of viruses that transmit via ingestion, such as the noroviruses that haunt cruise ships. However, their role in the transmission of respiratory viruses has not been established, said Charles P Gerba, a microbiologist at the University of Arizona."The risk is not zero, but how great a risk it is, we do not know. The big unknown is how much virus is infectious in the toilet when you flush it ... and how much virus does it take to cause an infection," said Gerba, who has studied the intersection of toilets and infectious disease for 45 years.

A study published in March in the journal Gastroenterology found significant amounts of coronavirus in the stool of patients and determined that viral RNA lasted in faeces even after the virus cleared from the patients` respiratory tracts. While another study in the journal Lancet found coronavirus in faeces up to a month after the illness had passed.

Scientists around the world are now studying sewage to track the spread of the virus. According to the researchers, the presence of the virus in excrement and the gastrointestinal tract raises the prospect of transmission via toilets, because many COVID-19 patients experience diarrhoea or vomiting.

A study of air samples in two hospitals in Wuhan, China found that although coronavirus aerosols in isolation wards and ventilated patient rooms were very low, "it was higher in the toilet areas used by the patients".The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it remains "unclear whether the virus found in faeces may be capable of causing COVID-19," and "there has not been any confirmed report of the virus spreading from faeces to a person".For now, the CDC characterises the risk as low based on observations from previous outbreaks of other coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Wang decided to use computer models to simulate toilet plumes while isolating at home, as per Chinese government orders and thinking about how a fluids researcher "could contribute to the global fight against the virus".

Published in the journal Physics of Fluids, the study found that flushing of both single-inlet toilets, which push water into the bowl from one port, and annular-inlet toilets, which pour water into the bowl from the rim's surrounding edge with even greater energy, results in "massive upward transport of virus".

Particles can reach heights of more than three feet and float in the air for more than a minute, it found. The paper recommends not just lid-closing and hand-washing, it urges manufacturers to produce toilets that close and self-clean automatically. It also suggests that toilet-users should wipe down the seat. Gerba, however, said seats should not be a major concern.

Research has found that public and household toilet seats are typically the cleanest surfaces in restrooms, he said, probably because so many people already wipe them off before using them. Also, he said of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, "I don't think it's butt-borne, so I don`t think you have to worry."Gerba, who has been studying coronavirus transmission for two decades to investigate the role of a toilet flushing in a SARS outbreak stresses "flush and run" when using a public toilet without a lid. Gerba also said that people should wash hands well post-flushing and use hand sanitiser after leaving the restroom. "Choose well-ventilated bathrooms if possible and do not hang around the restroom in any case," added Gerba.

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